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<title><![CDATA[The Hidden Culprit Behind Bitcoin's Epic Crash: Hong Kong Hedge Funds' Risky Bets Unraveled]]></title>
<link>https://www.bitcointoday.app/article/the-hidden-culprit-behind-bitcoins-epic-crash-hong-kong-hedge-funds-risky-bets-unraveled</link>
<guid>the-hidden-culprit-behind-bitcoins-epic-crash-hong-kong-hedge-funds-risky-bets-unraveled</guid>
<pubDate>Sat, 07 Feb 2026 08:01:07 GMT</pubDate>
<description><![CDATA[Crypto prices got absolutely rocked this week with Bitcoin falling nearly $15,000 in 24 hours—a bloodbath not seen since the collapse of crypto conman Sam Bankman-Fried’s empire back in 2022. On Friday, Bitcoin had clawed back most of those losses, and is now trading around $70,000, but the episode has left even longtime crypto insiders asking each other “What just happened?!” There are plenty of theories swirling around, but one is particularly compelling: The cause of the crash lies with Hong Kong traders who placed high-leverage Bitcoin bets that went horribly wrong.
That theory was put forth on X by Parker White, a former equities trader who is now COO at a crypto firm called DeFi Development Corporation. In a long thread, White said there is evidence pointing to the sudden implosion of Hong Kong hedge funds that held call options in BlackRock’s IBIT, which is the world’s biggest Bitcoin ETF.
White suggests that the hedge funds used the Yen carry trade (a form of interest arbitrage) to finance big positions in out-of-the-money IBIT options. This amounted to a risky bet that Bitcoin prices, which have been slumping since a big sell-off in October, would recover. The hoped-for rally didn’t arrive, however. Meanwhile, White speculates that the Hong Kong funds also got pummeled by headwinds in the Yen-carry trade—which made their financing more expensive—and exposure to recent convulsions in the silver market.
The upshot is the hedge funds faced a perfect storm and, as the crypto market slumped further this week, the value of their holdings declined until they got liquidated—forcing the mass sell-off of IBIT shares and a calamitous fall for Bitcoin. Here is how White explained what happened in trader-speak:
*Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the “obvious” rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off.*
In his post, White also pointed out that the Hong Kong hedge funds, whose Bitcoin trading occurred only in the form of ETF shares, are not part of the traditional crypto ecosystem. This means that chatter about their predicament did not bubble up on “Crypto Twitter”—which is the go-to forum for industry news—and nor did it create counter-parties who incurred big losses, and would be likely to warn others.
White’s theory is just that, of course: no more than a theory. Meanwhile, history shows that major Bitcoin crashes have typically been touched off by multiple factors, not a single event. And indeed, this week’s crypto crackup coincided with a broader AI-related asset sell-off, uncertainty over the fate of a key blockchain bill, as well as crypto names appearing in the Epstein files—factors that all likely contributed to Thursday’s meltdown.
Still, White’s explanation is the most persuasive, and is further supported by other circumstantial evidence, including a recent decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission to lift limits on trading Bitcoin options.
Meanwhile, other longtime crypto figures expressed cautious support for the Hong Kong hedge fund theory. That included the respected venture capitalist Haseeb Qureshi who described the theory as plausible, but added that it may take months to wait for regulatory filings that could help confirm it, and that in some cases a key crypto player can “blow up” without anyone ever learning their identity. But for those who are confident that a hedge fund is at the root of this week’s market troubles, there is already a Polymarket forum to bet on the culprit.]]></description>
<author>contact@bitcointoday.app (BitcoinToday.app)</author>
<category>bitcoin</category>
<category>hedgefunds</category>
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<category>ibit</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Bitcoin Miner IREN's Q2 Miss Sparks Stock Plunge as AI Services Surge Amid Bitcoin's Volatility]]></title>
<link>https://www.bitcointoday.app/article/bitcoin-miner-irens-q2-miss-sparks-stock-plunge-as-ai-services-surge-amid-bitcoins-volatility</link>
<guid>bitcoin-miner-irens-q2-miss-sparks-stock-plunge-as-ai-services-surge-amid-bitcoins-volatility</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 2026 15:01:09 GMT</pubDate>
<description><![CDATA[**Bitcoin miner IREN faced a challenging quarter, missing analyst expectations while its AI services revenue showed significant growth.**
IREN stock continued to retreat early Friday after the bitcoin miner and artificial intelligence play late Thursday missed estimates for its fiscal Q2 2026. Shares tumbled more than 11% on Thursday as bitcoin undercut $63,000 to fall to 16-month lows.
**IREN reported a net loss of $155.4 million**, compared with net income of $19 million last year. Total revenue increased to $184.7 million from $114 million. Analysts polled by FactSet expected a net loss of $88 million on $224 million in revenue.
"Last quarter marked meaningful progress across capacity expansion, customer engagement and capital formation, reflecting IREN's progress as a scaled AI Cloud platform," co-CEO Daniel Roberts said in the release. "We are seeing the strongest demand environment to date, and importantly that demand is being met by a proven execution capability."
He added that the company has more than 4.5 gigawatts (GW) of secured power, while IREN is on track to reach its target of $3.4 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of the 2026 calendar year, according to the release.
**Bitcoin mining revenue surged almost 47% to $167.4 million** but fell short of views for $202 million. **AI cloud services revenue was $17.3 million for the quarter**, up from $2.7 million last year. FactSet expected $27 million in revenue for the segment.
IREN reported that cash and cash equivalents stood at $2.8 billion as of Jan. 31. The company noted that it has secured $9.2 billion in funding fiscal year-to-date across customer prepayments, convertible notes, graphics processing unit (GPU) leasing and GPU financing.
The company added that it has secured $3.6 billion in GPU financing for its **Microsoft deal from November**. That month, **IREN inked a $9.7 billion deal** to give Microsoft access to **Nvidia GB300 GPUs** over a five-year period.
## IREN Stock Performance
IREN fell about 5% early Friday. Shares initially more than 12% late Thursday after the report.
That followed a tumble of more than 11% Thursday as the price of bitcoin unraveled. The stock drilled further below its 50-day line after undercutting that moving average on Wednesday.
**IREN has fallen more than 48% from its 2025 high of 76.87 in early November**. The stock is approaching its December low of 33.34.
Meanwhile, the price of bitcoin on Friday recovered modestly to $68,000. Bitcoin on Thursday evening retreated near $60,000, which marked its lowest price since early October 2024.]]></description>
<author>contact@bitcointoday.app (BitcoinToday.app)</author>
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<category>iren</category>
<category>airevenue</category>
<category>stockmarket</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Bitcoin Miner MARA Shifts $87 Million in BTC: Is This a Bearish Signal or Just Routine?]]></title>
<link>https://www.bitcointoday.app/article/bitcoin-miner-mara-shifts-87-million-in-btc-is-this-a-bearish-signal-or-just-routine</link>
<guid>bitcoin-miner-mara-shifts-87-million-in-btc-is-this-a-bearish-signal-or-just-routine</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 2026 08:01:07 GMT</pubDate>
<description><
*(Arkham)*
### Breakdown of the Transfers
- **The largest chunk, totaling 662.772 BTC (worth about $42.59 million), was sent to Two Prime**, a credit and trading firm. This included a major transfer of 653.773 BTC and a smaller top-up of 8.999 BTC shortly after.
- **Separate transactions directed 200 BTC and 99.999 BTC to a BitGo-tagged address**, amounting to roughly $20.4 million at the time.
- **Another 305 BTC moved to a fresh wallet**, valued at approximately $20.72 million.
### Why This Matters: Timing and Market Context
**The timing of these transfers is crucial**, as crypto markets have been experiencing sharp swings following a liquidation-driven selloff this week. Traders are on high alert for any signs that miners might be turning into forced sellers, which could exacerbate downward pressure.
**Large miner-related transfers like this can be routine**—such as treasury management, custody reshuffling, collateral moves, or preparation for an over-the-counter sale. However, in a thin market, they are often interpreted as a **supply signal**, potentially indicating bearish sentiment.
### Focus on Two Prime: Collateral or Strategy?
**The transfer to Two Prime is drawing particular attention** because it involves a credit and trading counterparty. If the Bitcoin is being posted as collateral or rotated into a trading strategy, it **does not necessarily imply immediate spot selling**. This nuance is key to understanding whether this move is a distress signal or part of standard operational adjustments.
### Broader Miner Stress Amid Bitcoin's Decline
**This activity comes during a challenging period for Bitcoin miners**, with the cryptocurrency down nearly 50% from its peak above $126,000 last year. **Bitcoin is currently trading about 20% below its estimated average production cost**, which is around $87,000 per BTC according to data from Checkonchain. Historically, trading below production cost has been a characteristic of bear markets, increasing financial strain across the mining sector.
**As the spot price hovers near a weekly low of $60,000**, the pressure on miners intensifies, making moves like MARA's worth watching closely for insights into market dynamics and potential future trends.]]></description>
<author>contact@bitcointoday.app (BitcoinToday.app)</author>
<category>bitcoin</category>
<category>mining</category>
<category>market</category>
<category>transfers</category>
<category>analysis</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Trump's Secret $500M UAE Crypto Deal: How a Royal Family Investment Could Compromise US Foreign Policy]]></title>
<link>https://www.bitcointoday.app/article/trumps-secret-500m-uae-crypto-deal-how-a-royal-family-investment-could-compromise-us-foreign-policy</link>
<guid>trumps-secret-500m-uae-crypto-deal-how-a-royal-family-investment-could-compromise-us-foreign-policy</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:01:24 GMT</pubDate>
<description><![CDATA[## The $500M Deal That Went Unnoticed
Days before Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, an investment firm controlled by a senior member of the United Arab Emirates royal family secretly **signed a deal to pay $500 million** to buy almost half of a cryptocurrency startup founded by the Trump family. Under any other president, such an arrangement would cause a political earthquake in Washington.
But this latest example of corruption involving Trump and his family business **hardly made a blip** over the past few days, relegated to a passing headline in a relentless news cycle often dominated by Trump's actions and statements.
## Why This Scandal Matters
This scandal deserves our attention: a **half-billion-dollar transaction with a foreign government official**, executed in the shadow of Trump's inauguration, which directly enriched the president and his family. The deal to acquire a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial, the crypto company founded by the Trump family and several allies in the fall of 2024 during Trump's presidential campaign, was backed by **Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan**, one of the most powerful officials in the UAE.
Known as the "spy sheikh," Tahnoon is the brother of the UAE's president and serves as national security adviser. He also oversees one of the largest investment empires in the world, serving as chair of two Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth funds, which have $1.5 trillion in assets, and G42, a firm focused on artificial intelligence.
## The Pattern of Monetizing the Presidency
It's dizzying to keep up with the ways that Trump has **monetized the presidency** and used it for personal profit in his second term. The Trump Organization, run by the president's sons, has negotiated foreign real estate deals worth billions of dollars, some of which involve private companies backed by governments of the three wealthiest Arab petrostates: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
In May, as Trump prepared to visit the Middle East, Qatar's government donated a **$400 million luxury Boeing jet**, which is being refitted by the US military so Trump can use it as Air Force One. It was probably the most expensive gift from a foreign government in US history.
## The Crypto Connection
In late May, the president **hosted a private dinner** at his Virginia golf club for the 220 largest buyers of his memecoin, called $Trump, which is a type of cryptocurrency connected to an online joke or mascot and has no inherent value. The top 25 buyers in the crypto contest got invited to a VIP reception with Trump and a White House tour. In all, the Trump family's crypto business raked in **about $148 million** from the contest, most of it from foreign or anonymous buyers.
Despite the sheer scale of these conflicts surrounding Trump over the past year, the **$500 million deal involving World Liberty and the UAE's Tahnoon** is "the only known case of a foreign government official purchasing a major stake in a Trump company after his election." By intertwining his personal fortune with the ruling families of the Gulf, Trump has compromised his ability – and the ability of his entire administration – to negotiate foreign policy and act as an honest broker.
## The AI Technology Connection
Over the past decade, Tahnoon has steered foreign policy negotiations with the US over major issues including fighting terrorism, economic investments and securing UAE access to advanced computer technology. In March, he visited Washington and met with Trump, gaining access to top cabinet members and being feted at a White House dinner – honors normally bestowed on a visiting head of state. The public did not know about the secret deal Tahnoon's investment firm had signed two months earlier with the Trump family's crypto company.
Two weeks after MGX's $2 billion investment in the Trump family's crypto firm, the Trump administration **allowed the UAE to buy hundreds of thousands of advanced computer chips** critical for AI development. The chips are made by US companies, especially Nvidia, and the Biden administration had restricted how many chips certain foreign countries can buy to prevent the technology from being misused. But Trump scrapped those restrictions.
## The White House Response
The White House insists that there was **no connection between the World Liberty crypto transaction** and the administration's decision to sell AI technology to the UAE – and claims that Trump and Witkoff have no conflict of interest because they have stepped aside from their family businesses. "The president has no involvement in business deals that would implicate his constitutional responsibilities," the White House counsel, David Warrington, said on Sunday.
While Trump's aides argue that he's living up to the highest ethical standards, the Republican-led Congress has shown little interest in investigating an astonishing series of corrupt actions and self-enrichment that would have devastated any other presidency. And as Trump and his family tally the expanding profits from their crypto empire, the rest of us must reckon with the cost to our democracy.]]></description>
<author>contact@bitcointoday.app (BitcoinToday.app)</author>
<category>trump</category>
<category>uae</category>
<category>worldliberty</category>
<category>cryptoscandal</category>
<category>ai</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Bhutan's Bitcoin Moves: What Does a Sovereign Nation's $14M Transfer Signal Amid Market Turmoil?]]></title>
<link>https://www.bitcointoday.app/article/bhutans-bitcoin-moves-what-does-a-sovereign-nations-14m-transfer-signal-amid-market-turmoil</link>
<guid>bhutans-bitcoin-moves-what-does-a-sovereign-nations-14m-transfer-signal-amid-market-turmoil</guid>
<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2026 08:01:27 GMT</pubDate>
<description><
This activity marks Bhutan's first notable wallet movement in roughly **three months** and occurs during a volatile period for crypto markets. Bitcoin has fallen more than **7%** in 24 hours, while silver plunged as much as **17%** and global equities slid amid fears that artificial intelligence spending is undermining traditional software business models.
Bhutan has emerged over the past two years as one of the more **unusual sovereign bitcoin holders**, quietly building a stash through state-backed mining tied to hydropower. Unlike corporate treasuries that often publicize accumulation strategies, Bhutan's holdings have largely been managed out of the spotlight, making changes in wallet behavior closely watched by traders.
The latest transfers do not confirm outright selling. Coins were split across multiple destinations, including new wallets that could indicate **internal reshuffling** or **collateral management** rather than immediate liquidation. However, sending bitcoin to exchanges and trading firms during a sharp drawdown contrasts with the country's otherwise long periods of inactivity.
These moves reflect a broader theme emerging in this selloff: large holders are treating bitcoin less as a static reserve asset and more as a **balance-sheet tool during stress**. Corporate treasuries, miners, and now sovereign-linked entities are adjusting positions as liquidity tightens and price swings accelerate.]]></description>
<author>contact@bitcointoday.app (BitcoinToday.app)</author>
<category>bitcoin</category>
<category>bhutan</category>
<category>marketanalysis</category>
<category>onchain</category>
<category>volatility</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Bitcoin Plunges Below $70,000 as Tech Stocks Crash: AI Spending Spree Sparks Market Chaos]]></title>
<link>https://www.bitcointoday.app/article/bitcoin-plunges-below-70-000-as-tech-stocks-crash-ai-spending-spree-sparks-market-chaos</link>
<guid>bitcoin-plunges-below-70-000-as-tech-stocks-crash-ai-spending-spree-sparks-market-chaos</guid>
<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2026 15:01:08 GMT</pubDate>
<description><![CDATA[**Dow Jones futures fell early Thursday**, along with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, as the stock market remains deeply divided. **Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL) reported strong earnings but stunned investors with massive AI capital spending**, signaling a broader trend among tech giants.
### Market Turmoil and Tech Sell-Off
The stock market saw further pain for tech stocks on Wednesday, with **Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) leading the carnage**, plunging 17.3% despite beating views. The Nasdaq fell to a 2026 low, while the S&P 500 briefly undercut its 50-day line. **AI-related names and high-beta stocks broadly tumbled**, including software, chips, and space plays like Rocket Lab (RKLB).
However, the market wasn't all red. **Consumer staples, housing, regional banks, and medicals saw investors piling in**. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%, buoyed by stocks like Amgen (AMGN) and Apple (AAPL), which continued its strong post-earnings move.
### Bitcoin and Commodities Dive
**Bitcoin tumbled below $70,000**, hitting 52-week lows as the crypto market faces intense pressure. Silver futures plunged, gold fell, and crude oil dropped 2% amid U.S.-Iran talks. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.26%.
### Google's AI Spending Spree
Google's earnings and revenue modestly beat Q4 views, with Google Cloud also topping forecasts. But **capital spending blew out estimates and guided substantially higher for 2026**. This follows similar announcements from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla, all setting big spending plans for AI infrastructure.
Google stock fell solidly early Thursday, signaling a move below key buy points. Meanwhile, Coherent (COHR) reported strong results but shares plunged, while Boot Barn (BOOT) and EZcorp (EZPW) showed strength.
### Sector Performance and ETFs
Growth ETFs took a hit: the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) tumbled 3.7%, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) shed 1.8%, and the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) skidded 3.9%. **ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) plunged 4.7% to a seven-month low**.
On the upside, SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) stepped up 3.4%, the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) advanced 2.25%, and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) rose 1.25%, with Eli Lilly as the top holding.
### What to Do Now
Divided markets are volatile. Will stronger sectors lift the whole market, or will techs drag everything down? So far, software and crypto woes have spread to tech and AI plays, but other sectors are holding up or powering higher.
Investors should be cautious: **cut losses quickly, limit exposure to technology, and avoid getting excited by bounces in hard-hit techs**. It's a time to nibble on opportunities outside of tech but not to step on the gas. Stay engaged and prepared to take action in either direction.]]></description>
<author>contact@bitcointoday.app (BitcoinToday.app)</author>
<category>bitcoin</category>
<category>stockmarket</category>
<category>ai</category>
<category>techcrash</category>
<category>investing</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Bitcoin at Critical Juncture: Nearing Pre-Election Floor as ETF Demand Fades, Citi Warns]]></title>
<link>https://www.bitcointoday.app/article/bitcoin-at-critical-juncture-nearing-pre-election-floor-as-etf-demand-fades-citi-warns</link>
<guid>bitcoin-at-critical-juncture-nearing-pre-election-floor-as-etf-demand-fades-citi-warns</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 04 Feb 2026 15:01:25 GMT</pubDate>
<description><![CDATA[## Bitcoin Approaches Key Inflection Point
Crypto markets are approaching important inflection points after weeks of declines, according to Wall Street bank **Citi**. Bitcoin fell to around **$73,000** before stabilizing, extending a drawdown that has pushed prices below the bank's estimated average U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) entry price of **$81,600**. The largest cryptocurrency was trading around $76,100 at publication time.
## ETF Inflows Slow as Headwinds Build
The report noted that **ETF inflows**, a major source of new demand, have slowed materially, while futures markets continue to see pockets of long liquidations. "Crypto markets have exhibited the volatility similar to precious metals but without the upside," analyst Alex Saunders wrote in the Tuesday report.
## Digital Gold Comparison Falters
Bitcoin is often framed as **“digital gold,”** but it has yet to mirror the recent strength seen in precious metals. While gold has rallied amid geopolitical risk and macro uncertainty, BTC has remained under pressure, highlighting its continued sensitivity to liquidity conditions and risk sentiment rather than haven demand.
## Regulatory and Macro Risks Loom
**Regulation** remains the key potential catalyst, Saunders said, but progress on a U.S. digital asset market structure bill has been slow and uneven. While Senate negotiations continue, delays and mixed political support have dampened sentiment, with market-implied odds of passage slipping.
The analyst also pointed to **macro risks**, including concerns over a shrinking Federal Reserve balance sheet, which historically weighs on crypto through reduced bank liquidity. While concerns of a prolonged crypto winter are rising, Citi said that remains a tail risk rather than its base case.
## Approaching Decisive Levels
With average ETF holders now underwater and bitcoin nearing the roughly **$70,000** it held before the U.S. presidential election, the report said markets are approaching levels that could prove decisive for near-term direction.]]></description>
<author>contact@bitcointoday.app (BitcoinToday.app)</author>
<category>bitcoin</category>
<category>etf</category>
<category>marketanalysis</category>
<category>citi</category>
<category>regulation</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Bitcoin Plunges Below $73,000: Is This the Start of a Major Correction?]]></title>
<link>https://www.bitcointoday.app/article/bitcoin-plunges-below-73-000-is-this-the-start-of-a-major-correction</link>
<guid>bitcoin-plunges-below-73-000-is-this-the-start-of-a-major-correction</guid>
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:01:26 GMT</pubDate>
<description><
*Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images*
## Market Context and Performance
Bitcoin has now fallen **16% year-to-date** as investors continue to rotate out of risk-on assets. This selling pressure comes amid **mounting geopolitical concerns** and uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic data, which has been delayed due to a partial government shutdown.
## Related Market Movements
The broader cryptocurrency market has felt the impact of Bitcoin's decline. **MicroStrategy**, a prominent Bitcoin treasury firm, saw its stock price drop **9%** following the digital asset's pullback. This correlation highlights how traditional market players with significant Bitcoin exposure are affected by cryptocurrency volatility.
## Technical Analysis Perspective
From a technical standpoint, breaking below the $73,000 level represents a **significant psychological barrier** for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency now faces the challenge of finding support at lower levels, with traders watching closely to see if this decline represents a temporary correction or the beginning of a more sustained downtrend.
## Investor Sentiment Shift
The current market environment reflects a **shift in investor sentiment** away from risk assets. With geopolitical tensions rising and economic uncertainty persisting, many investors are opting for safer havens, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies and other high-risk investments.]]></description>
<author>contact@bitcointoday.app (BitcoinToday.app)</author>
<category>bitcoin</category>
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<title><![CDATA[Ethereum's Brutal Stumble Mirrors Last Bull Run Start: Is a 300% Surge Against Bitcoin Imminent?]]></title>
<link>https://www.bitcointoday.app/article/ethereums-brutal-stumble-mirrors-last-bull-run-start-is-a-300-surge-against-bitcoin-imminent</link>
<guid>ethereums-brutal-stumble-mirrors-last-bull-run-start-is-a-300-surge-against-bitcoin-imminent</guid>
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2026 08:01:09 GMT</pubDate>
<description>< say bitcoin will get to 105K in 2026, while on Polymarket, [punters assign](https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-all-time-high-by) only a 29% chance it breaks the magic number of $126,000.
### Market Movement
**BTC:** Bitcoin is trading near **$78,800** as a brief liquidation-driven rebound runs into thin support above $70,000, leaving markets focused on the $60,000 to $65,000 long-term holder and 200-week average zone as the next major floor unless U.S. equities roll over.
**ETH:** Ethereum is trading near **$2,345** after a short rebound from weekend selling, but with steeper weekly losses than bitcoin and weaker structural support, markets remain cautious that price could continue drifting lower unless broader risk appetite improves.
**Gold:** Gold is trading near **$4,830** as prices attempt to stabilize after a margin-driven selloff, but elevated volatility and a firmer dollar are keeping the rebound fragile rather than signaling a clean return to the prior uptrend.
**Nikkei 225:** The Nikkei 225 rose about **2.4%** to lead gains across Asia as optimism over a new U.S.–India trade deal lifted regional risk sentiment, with South Korea’s Kospi surging over 5% and broader markets tracking a rebound in U.S. equities despite ongoing volatility in gold, silver and crypto.
### Elsewhere in Crypto
- CZ pushes back against Binance 'FUD' as blame game for crypto crash persists ([CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/02/02/cz-pushes-back-against-binance-fud-as-blame-game-for-crypto-crash-persists))
- Jeffrey Epstein Was an Early Investor in Coinbase, Emails Reveal ([Decrypt](https://decrypt.co/356620/jeffrey-epstein-early-investor-coinbase-emails-reveal))]]></description>
<author>contact@bitcointoday.app (BitcoinToday.app)</author>
<category>ethereum</category>
<category>bitcoin</category>
<category>bullrun</category>
<category>marketanalysis</category>
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<title><![CDATA[U.S. Inflation Crashes Below 1% in Real Time: A Bullish Signal for Bitcoin?]]></title>
<link>https://www.bitcointoday.app/article/us-inflation-crashes-below-1-in-real-time-a-bullish-signal-for-bitcoin</link>
<guid>us-inflation-crashes-below-1-in-real-time-a-bullish-signal-for-bitcoin</guid>
<pubDate>Tue, 03 Feb 2026 15:01:08 GMT</pubDate>
<description><
*(Unsplash modified by CoinDesk)*
A real-time tracker of U.S. inflation is offering good news to crypto bulls as bearish forecasts continue to roll in.
The **Truflation index**, an independent, real-time blockchain-based tracker of daily changes in the consumer price index (CPI), has dropped below 1% for the first time since at least early 2021. The index has fallen from 2.67% since mid-December, taking it well below the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
So while the official government reading stays 700 basis points above the Fed's target, the real-time level is showing fast disinflation, a scenario that supports the case for quick-fire interest-rate cuts by the bank.
That's good news for liquidity-sensitive assets such as **bitcoin (BTC)**, especially since the cryptocurrency is now trading 38% below the record $126,000 price from early October. The Truflation reading also contrasts forecasts of inflation resurgence by some analysts.
"As measured by Truflation, consumer price inflation has dropped to 0.86% on a year-over-year basis, breaking significantly below the 2-3% range in place for the past two years. In our view, inflation could turn negative, contrary to BlackRock and PIMCO forecasts," Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, said on X.
The good news doesn't stop there. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who correctly warned of a worsening fiscal situation for Japan last year, predicted President Donald's Trump's pick for Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, could cut rates by 100 basis points this year.
Let's see if these things offer relief to the crypto market. As of publication time, BTC is trading little changed around $78,000, with smaller tokens showing some recovery, as evidenced by the 2% gain in the CoinDesk 80 Index over 24 hours. Hyperliquid's HYPE and POL stand out as the only top-100 tokens with gains in excess of 10%.
Analysts remain optimistic about long-term prospects.
"In the near term, positioning in crypto does remain fragile. But structurally, ongoing institutional adoption, expanding use of stablecoins for cross-border settlement, and the rise of tokenized real-world assets should improve crypto market depth and interoperability," Emir Ibrahim, an analyst at digital asset trading firm Zerocap, told CoinDesk in an email.
"Over time, these dynamics are expected to reinforce Bitcoin's debasement hedge characteristics, even if the market is not yet fully pricing that narrative today," Ibrahim added.
In traditional markets, both the dollar index and Treasury yields are buoyant in the wake of Monday's strong manufacturing data. Stay alert!
## What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".
- **Crypto**
- Feb. 3: Ondo Finance (ONDO) to share an update of its roadmap at the Ondo Summit.
- Feb. 3: CHZ to share its Chiliz Vision 2030 roadmap.
- **Macro**
- Feb. 3 U.S. JOLTs data delayed over partial U.S. government shutdown.
- **Earnings** (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Feb. 3: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, -$0.95
- Feb. 3: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.29
## Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".
- **Governance votes & calls**
- Feb. 3: Lido to host a community call on the Lido V3 mainnet launch.
- Feb. 3: Axie Infinity to host a Lunacian Lounge.
- **Unlocks**
- No major unlocks.
- **Token Launches**
- Feb. 3: Conflux (CFX) to be listed on Kraken.
- Feb. 3: Usualx’s unlock window closes.
## Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Day 3 of 4: Web Summit Qatar (Doha, Qatar)
- Feb. 3: Ondo Summit (New York)
## Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.1% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $78,400.52 (24hrs: +0.9%)
- ETH is down 2.03% at $2,292.99 (24hrs: +0.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.94% at at 2,278.33 (24hrs: +0.55%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 3%
- BTC funding rate is at 0% (0.0372% annualized) on Binance

- DXY is unchanged at 97.58
- Gold futures are up 6.13% at $4,938.00
- Silver futures are up 11.81% at $86.10
- Nikkei 225 closed up 3.92% at 54,720.66
- Hang Seng closed up 0.22% at 26,834.77
- FTSE is down 0.05% at 10,336.54
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.56% at 6,041.35
- DJIA closed on Monday up 1.05% at 49,407.66
- S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,976.44
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.56% at 23,592.11
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.82% at 32,183.88
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.91% at 3,656.11
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.2 bps at 4.289%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 7,016.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.51% at 25,981.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 49,522.00
## Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 60.08% (0.18%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02919 (-2.09%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 870 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $35.10
- Total fees: 3.42 BTC / $266,100
- CME Futures Open Interest: 113,495 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.8 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 5.22%
## Technical Analysis

*(SOL's price chart. (TradingView))*
- The chart shows **solana (SOL)** price swings in candlestick format since 2022.
- Prices dropped to support at $95.16 identified by the horizontal line connecting the low hit in April last year.
- If this support breaks, Solana faces little backing until the mid-$30s. Bulls, therefore, need to hold $95.16 to avoid a deeper crash.
## Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $187.86 (-3.53%), +0.90% at $189.55 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $58.86 (-7.93%), +1.95% at $60.01
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.44 (-6.44%), +1.06% at $26.70
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $28.77 (-4.74%), +2.57% at $29.51
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.12 (-4.00%), +0.77% at $9.19
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.32 (-0.97%), +1.31% at $15.52
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.87 (-0.67%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.04 (-6.76%), +1.36% at $11.19
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $44.44 (-1.38%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $11.18 (-14.59%), -0.63% at $11.11
**Crypto Treasury Companies**
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.63 (-6.73%), +1.12% at $141.19
- Strive (ASST): closed at $0.72 (-11.94%), +2.32% at $0.74
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.79 (-12.27%), +0.77% at $7.85
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.62 (-8.99%), +2.47% at $1.66
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (-5.79%)
## ETF Flows
**Spot BTC ETFs**
- Daily net flows: $561.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.55 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.28 million
**Spot ETH ETFs**
- Daily net flows: -$2.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.9 million
Source: Farside Investors
## While You Were Sleeping
- **Bitcoin ETFs see cash rush as traders hunt bargains** (CoinDesk): Investors poured cash into the U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs on Monday with total net inflow of $561.8 million, the largest single day of buying since Jan. 14.
- **SpaceX, xAI Tie Up, Forming $1.25 Trillion Company** (The Wall Street Journal): Elon Musk said SpaceX acquired xAI, a deal that combines his rocket-and-satellite business with his artificial-intelligence startup that is facing steep competition.
- **Gold rallies with silver as historic rout lures back dip buyers** (Bloomberg): Gold and silver rebounded after a historic collapse from all-time highs. Spot gold was up by 6.2% to near $4,950 an ounce. Silver rose more than 10% to top $87.
- **India to ramp up purchases of US oil, arms, aircraft; open some farm access** (Reuters): India agreed to buy oil, defense goods and aircraft from the U.S., as President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India slashing tariffs to 18% from 50% in exchange for halting Russian oil purchases.]]></description>
<author>contact@bitcointoday.app (BitcoinToday.app)</author>
<category>inflation</category>
<category>bitcoin</category>
<category>market</category>
<category>etf</category>
<category>analysis</category>
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