## The Bitcoin Ownership Split That Could Shape The Market's Future

For much of this month, **Bitcoin (BTC)** has been trading around the mid-$60,000s. While this price action might seem humdrum on the surface, a developing split in coin ownership could determine what happens next in the cryptocurrency market.

### Shrimps vs. Whales: A Growing Divergence

Data from **Santiment** reveals a fascinating trend: the number of wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC (typically associated with retail investors or "shrimps") has increased by **2.5%** since Bitcoin hit its record high in October. This growth has pushed the shrimps' share of supply to its highest level since mid-2024.

![Santiment data visualization showing Bitcoin wallet distribution](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F86b39ac4631aa26a4f42475ec3226f8292b0fde5-3066x1721.jpg%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=3840&q=75)

*Santiment data visualization showing Bitcoin wallet distribution*

Meanwhile, larger holders known as **whales and sharks** (wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC) have moved in the opposite direction, reducing their holdings by approximately **0.8%**.

### Why This Split Matters

In practice, it's the larger holders who tend to set the tone for price direction. This kind of ownership split typically produces **choppy, frustrating price action** rather than clean trends.

**Retail investors provide a floor** and can spark short-term momentum, but rallies that stick require bigger players who are prepared to buy whatever's on offer. The divergence is especially notable because the picture looked different just a few weeks ago.

### Conflicting Data Points

After Bitcoin cratered toward $60,000 on February 5 (a drawdown of more than 50% from its October peak), **Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score** climbed to 0.68. This was the strongest broad-based reading since late November, suggesting the market was shifting from capitulation into something more synchronized.

Glassnode's metric measures the relative strength of accumulation across different wallet sizes by factoring in both entity size and the amount of BTC accumulated over the past 15 days. A score closer to 1 signals accumulation, while a score closer to 0 indicates distribution.

During this period, the **10-to-100 BTC cohort** was the most aggressive dip buyer. However, Santiment's wider lens complicates this reading. Its 10-to-10,000 BTC band captures a much broader slice of large holders than Glassnode's dip-buying cohort, and across that full range, net positioning since October is still negative.

### Reconciling The Two Takes

One way to reconcile these conflicting data points: mid-sized wallets may have genuinely bought the panic while the largest holders kept distributing into every recovery, dragging the aggregate number down.

**This matters because Bitcoin doesn't need retail to show up—retail is already here.** What it needs is for the distribution from large wallets to stop, or better yet, reverse. Without that, every rally risks being sold into by the very cohort that needs to provide structural demand if it is to succeed.

The shrimps are doing their part. Now they're waiting for the whales to join in.

Small wallets have increased their BTC holdings by 2.5% since October's all-time high while large holders trimmed 0.8%, Santiment data shows.

Bitcoin's Critical Crossroads: Shrimps Are Buying But Whales Hold The Key To The Next Rally

## Blue Owl's Liquidity Crisis Echoes 2008: A Bullish Signal for Bitcoin?

Private-equity giant **Blue Owl Capital (OWL)** plunged nearly 15% this week after being forced to liquidate **$1.4 billion in assets** to meet investor redemptions in a private credit fund. This event has sent shockwaves through financial markets, with analysts drawing chilling parallels to the **Bear Stearns hedge fund collapses** that foreshadowed the **2008 global financial crisis (GFC)**. For Bitcoin investors, this could be a pivotal moment.

While major stock indices remained unscathed, Blue Owl shares fell sharply, down over 50% year-over-year. Other private-equity players like **Blackstone (BX), Apollo Global (APO), and Ares Management (ARES)** also saw significant declines, reviving painful memories of the 2008 meltdown.

### A 'Canary in the Coal Mine' Moment?

Former Pimco head **Mohamed El-Erian** questioned if this is a "canary-in-the-coalmine" moment akin to August 2007, when credit markets seized up and liquidity evaporated. He noted risks from an overheated **artificial intelligence (AI)** market but emphasized that current dangers don't match the 2008 scale. However, if Blue Owl is the "first domino," as suggested by former Peter Lynch associate **George Noble**, it could trigger a sequence similar to 2008, with **private credit replacing subprime mortgages** as the catalyst.

### Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain for Bitcoin?

Initially, tighter credit conditions might hurt risk assets, including **Bitcoin (BTC)**, which fell about 70% during the early Covid crisis. Yet, the **Federal Reserve's response** could be game-changing. In 2020, trillions in stimulus propelled BTC from under $4,000 to over $65,000. A repeat of the 2007-2008 playbook—stress, denial, contagion, then massive central bank intervention—could fuel another Bitcoin surge.

### Bitcoin's Genesis: Born from Crisis

Bitcoin was created during the 2008 crisis by **Satoshi Nakamoto**, disillusioned with government bailouts. The **Genesis Block** on Jan. 3, 2009, embedded the headline "Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks," highlighting Bitcoin's anti-establishment roots. From zero value, Bitcoin has grown to a **$1 trillion market cap**, embraced by major asset managers as a portfolio essential.

Today, Bitcoin has evolved into a **store of value** and "digital gold," integrated into the financial system via ETFs and institutional holdings. If Blue Owl's crisis signals a broader meltdown, Bitcoin might re-emerge as a **solution to a fragile banking system**, potentially driving a new bull run.

**Read more:** [Bitcoin's plunge signals coming AI crisis, but massive Fed response will drive new record high: Arthur Hayes](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/18/bitcoin-s-plunge-signals-coming-ai-crisis-but-massive-fed-response-will-drive-new-record-high-arthur-hayes)

Private-equity firm Blue Owl Capital (OWL) tumbled nearly 15% this week as it was forced to liquidate $1.4 billion in assets to pay investors looking to exit one of its private credit funds.

Is Blue Owl's $1.4 Billion Liquidation Crisis the Spark for Bitcoin's Next Epic Bull Run?

It's been a dismal year for the crypto market. **Bitcoin** is down 25% for the year, while **Ethereum** is down 36% (as of Feb. 19). With these two market bellwethers struggling to find their footing, almost no major cryptocurrencies are in the green.

But there is one sector of the crypto market that is booming right now: **gold-backed stablecoins**. The two leaders here are **Tether Gold** and **PAX Gold**. Together, they account for 90% of the gold-backed stablecoin market. If you're looking to put $1,000 to work in the crypto market right now, this could be a good place to start.

## Tether Gold or PAX Gold?

It can be tough making the choice between Tether Gold and PAX Gold. Both are pegged 1-to-1 to the price of physical **gold**, and both are up 15% for the year. Both now rank among the top 35 cryptocurrencies in the world, and both have market caps of roughly $2.5 billion.

![Gold bars and coins.](https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F856321%2Fgold-bars-and-coins.jpg&w=3840&op=resize)

Image source: Getty Images.

But PAX Gold has one clear advantage over Tether Gold: it is **fully regulated by U.S. banking authorities**, and is generally more accessible than Tether Gold for U.S. investors. For that reason, PAX Gold gets my vote over Tether Gold. For a total cost of $1,000, you can pick up about 0.2 tokens at today's prices.

## Physical gold, Bitcoin, or tokenized gold?

A year ago, some investors touted Bitcoin as **digital gold**. It was presumed to be the one safe asset that you needed to have in your crypto portfolio. These enthusiasts considered it just as valuable and appealing as physical gold. But during the past 12 months, the prices of Bitcoin and physical gold have radically diverged, and that's leading investors to question the digital gold investment thesis.

During the past 12 months, gold is up a head-spinning 71%, while Bitcoin has taken a serious hit in value. For that reason, money has now been flowing into **gold-backed stablecoins**. At the end of 2025, this was a $4 billion market opportunity. Just two months into 2026, it's now a $5 billion market opportunity. As long as the price of gold continues to climb, so will the demand for gold-backed stablecoins.

Investors now have several different ways to get their gold exposure. They can buy physical gold bars. They can invest in **gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs)**. And now they can invest in **tokenized gold** in the form of stablecoins.

Investors in PAX Gold can exchange their tokens at any time for physical gold, just as owners of dollar-pegged stablecoins can exchange their tokens for physical dollars at any time. Think of it as owning the right to pick up physical gold at any time, without all the worries of actually owning physical gold bars.

At a time when nearly all major cryptocurrencies are trending down, there are few safe spots to park your money in the crypto market right now. That's why I'm keeping my eye on tokenized gold as a potential investment opportunity in 2026.

As long as the price of gold continues to soar, gold-backed stablecoins will remain an attractive investment opportunity.

Gold-Backed Stablecoins: The Crypto Market's Safe Haven Amid Bitcoin's Downturn

## A Gathering of Power Players at Mar-a-Lago

Rapper **Nicki Minaj**, FIFA president **Gianni Infantino**, and Goldman Sachs CEO **David Solomon** were among the high-profile attendees at Donald Trump's southern Florida resort this week. But this was no ordinary social event—it was a carefully orchestrated summit designed to position the Trump family's **crypto venture** as a global power player.

![Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump interviewed by television presenter Erin Molan](https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F0f72166e-cf4e-4121-827f-81a08edea8fc.jpg?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700&dpr=1)

## World Liberty Financial Takes Center Stage

The inaugural conference hosted by **World Liberty Financial (WLF)**—the Trump family's main crypto venture—drew 400 dignitaries including two US senators, hedge fund manager Philippe Laffont, Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson, and billionaire **Binance founder Changpeng Zhao**, who was pardoned by Trump last year.

Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump, and the sons of Steve Witkoff (Trump's special envoy to the Middle East) served as masters of ceremonies for what Eric Trump called "**retribution**" from the stage.

"When we lost the ability to bank, we created World Liberty Financial," Eric Trump declared, while Donald Trump Jr added that Wall Street's biggest lenders "wanted us to crawl into the corner and die. They created a monster."

![A large installation of World Liberty Financial’s logo at the Mar-a-Lago conference](https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F37bfe7c3-7167-43cd-869d-559ad9c5c114.jpg?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700&dpr=1)

## The Growing Clout of a Crypto Upstart

Wednesday's forum underscored the growing influence of a company that remains relatively small by industry standards. **WLF's dollar-pegged coin USD1 has a market capitalization of about $5 billion**, while stablecoins operated by competitors Tether and Circle are valued at $185 billion and $73 billion respectively.

The group's allure has been polished by its connections to the president, whose administration has put **crypto at the heart of its financial policies**. The Trump family's crypto empire reportedly reaped roughly **$1 billion in pre-tax profits** in the year to October 2025.

Earlier this month, WLF acknowledged accepting a **$500 million investment backed by an Abu Dhabi royal** days before Trump's inauguration last January, though the company denied any connection to later agreements granting the UAE access to US AI chips.

## Ignoring the Market Sell-Off

Between coffee breaks and a lunch of assorted meats and boiled vegetables, speakers largely ignored the **sell-off that has gripped bitcoin and other major digital tokens since October**. Instead, discussions focused on the impact of AI on US capital markets and the surging popularity of event contracts on sports and political developments.

![Guests dine outdoors at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort](https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F0359bc55-5542-402b-8871-b026abac868b.jpg?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700&dpr=1)

Commodity Futures Trading Commission chair Michael Selig described prediction markets as a "check on our news media," while Republican Senator Bernie Moreno hit out at unidentified "maniacal lunatics" in the Biden administration. Nicki Minaj described her "love" for Treasury secretary Scott Bessent.

## The Crypto Legislation Battle

Crypto legislation proved another popular subject as traditional banks remain locked in a fierce fight with crypto players like **Coinbase** over the details of the **Clarity Act**. Coinbase's Brian Armstrong became a significant holdout on early drafts when Wall Street lenders pushed to close what they describe as a "loophole" that would allow crypto groups to offer rewards to customers holding dollar-pegged stablecoins.

Goldman's David Solomon presented the fight as one for an equal playing field: "If there are people that think we're going to operate without rules, they're probably wrong, and they should move to El Salvador."

![Cocktail shrimp and oysters served in an ice-sculpture featuring World Liberty Financial’s logo](https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F395e5a79-6707-46e9-9235-5eed14d263d4.jpg?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700&dpr=1)

## Building the Infrastructure for the Future

WLF co-founder Zak Folkman outlined ambitious plans for the company, which applied for a **US banking license in January** to broaden its access to the traditional financial system. He envisioned a future where retail traders could use "tokenised luxury floating villas in the Maldives" as collateral for loans extended by code, and where **AI agents would shop on investors' behalf using WLF's stablecoin USD1**.

"We're building the entire infrastructure for the future," Folkman concluded. At the drinks reception by the pool later that night, it was hard to find anyone who didn't think WLF was on the right track.

![The conclusion of the conference at Mar-a-Lago](https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F069a63f5-5d1c-41aa-842f-8b975900200e.jpg?source=next-article&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&width=700&dpr=1)

World Liberty Financial draws bankers, celebrities and digital market tycoons to US president’s Florida resort

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