Bitcoin is now firmly entrenched in the deepest phase of a **bear market**, with the potential for further significant declines, according to CK Zheng, founder of crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital.

Zheng warns that **Bitcoin could drop another 30% in 2026**, citing the ongoing **Iran war** and the powerful **four-year cycle** as key catalysts. The world's largest cryptocurrency has already nearly halved since hitting a record high of over $126,000 in October last year, currently trading around $68,000.

## The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle

Crypto investors often reference the **"four-year cycle"** – a pattern where prices surge, crash, and then recover, centered around the quadrennial mining reward halving.

The halving, most recently implemented in April 2024, is a programmed event that halves Bitcoin's supply expansion rate every four years. Currently, **3.125 BTC** are emitted as rewards for each block mined, down from the original 50 BTC at launch after four halving events.

Historically, Bitcoin's price tends to peak about **16–18 months after a halving**, followed by a bear market that typically lasts about a year. With BTC topping out in October last year, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, the cycle appears to be playing out once again.

Zheng emphasizes that this cycle is proving **extremely difficult to break** due to human psychology. "The 'Four-year crypto cycle' momentum is gaining strength and is extremely difficult to break due to individual investors' psychological behaviors," he explained.

Individual investors tend to behave predictably – buying during hype and selling during panic – which reinforces the **boom-and-bust pattern** that has defined crypto markets for over a decade. Because of this, Zheng notes that Bitcoin still trades more like a **speculative asset** than a safe haven like gold.

He also highlights that **institutional adoption of Bitcoin remains slow and limited** at this stage. Some firms that have purchased Bitcoin as a treasury asset may be forced to sell during this bear market, potentially creating a **vicious cycle** of selling pressure.

"The total size of crypto ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury companies is only around **10% of the whole crypto market**. Some Digital Asset Treasury firms may be forced to sell cryptos to meet certain debt servicing requirements during this bear market, which may create a vicious cycle," Zheng cautioned.

For now, Zheng's outlook is clear: **crypto's bear market may have further to run** before the next cycle begins.

Bitcoin is now firmly in a deep bear market and could fall another 30% in 2026, firm said.

Bitcoin's Bear Market Deepens: Expert Warns of 30% Crash in 2026 Amid Four-Year Cycle

**Bitfarms**, a Canadian company, is making a strategic shift from **Bitcoin mining** to **AI data centers**, a move that could redefine its future. Last month, the board approved plans to relocate the company to the U.S. and rebrand as Keel Infrastructure.

With shares trading at just over $2, adding Bitfarms to your portfolio is an affordable entry point. But is this an early opportunity for life-changing returns?

![A data center being constructed.](https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F855631%2Fdata-center-construction.jpg&w=3840&op=resize)
*Image source: Getty Images.*

The pivot to **AI infrastructure** is gaining traction among Bitcoin mining companies, driven by financial logic. Instead of mining a volatile cryptocurrency with rewards halving every four years, they now provide data center capacity for top AI firms.

To illustrate the potential, **Cipher Mining**, another miner transitioning to AI, recently signed a 15-year lease with **Amazon Web Services** worth approximately $5.5 billion, or $367 million annually, for 300 megawatts of capacity.

Bitfarms boasts an impressive **2.1 gigawatts** in its North American energy portfolio. In November, it secured a binding agreement with an unnamed American multinational for **$128 million** to provide 18 megawatts of data center capacity. If Bitfarms continues to land such deals, its revenue and share price could surge.

However, competition for AI hosting contracts is fierce, with rivals like **Applied Digital** and **Equinix** in the mix. The transition is costly, and Bitfarms is already operating at a loss, with $96 million in trailing net losses.

Given the intense competition, Bitfarms may not be a guaranteed millionaire-maker. It offers high-risk, high-reward potential, so investors should approach with caution and consider their risk tolerance.

Bitfarms is moving into AI infrastructure and has already landed a nine-figure deal.

Bitfarms' Bold Pivot: From Bitcoin Mining to AI Infrastructure – Could This $2 Stock Be Your Next Big Opportunity?

## Silver's Meteoric Rise and Future Outlook

In 2025, gold and silver prices soared, outperforming the **S&P 500** and top cryptocurrencies. The **iShares Silver Trust (SLV)** gained over 162% in the past year, more than double the rise of comparable gold ETFs. This surge was driven by increased demand and a shift toward safer assets. Beyond jewelry, silver has industrial applications in electric vehicles and solar panels.

![A person uses a computer in an office.](https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F857303%2Ftrader-investor-chart-decision-buy-sell-hold-stock.jpg&w=3840&op=resize)

*Image source: Getty Images.*

Silver may continue rising in 2026, but this growth could be unsustainable if industrial demand fades as manufacturers seek cheaper alternatives. Investors face volatility and unpredictability in both cryptocurrencies and precious metals, though they react differently to global distress.

For those seeking the next big opportunity, programmable cryptocurrencies are key. These blockchains host **stablecoins**—tokenized versions of traditional currencies and assets. In 2026, stablecoin adoption could boost these cryptos similarly to how industrial demand and investor concerns fueled silver's rise.

## 1. Ethereum: The Smart Contract Pioneer

**Ethereum (ETH)** was the first cryptocurrency to introduce **smart contracts**, enabling applications and other cryptos to run on its network. These are gaining traction rapidly.

![Ethereum Stock Quote](https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FETH.png&w=128&op=resize)

**Citigroup** projects the stablecoin market could surge over 1,200% from about $300 billion today to $4 trillion by 2030, influenced by U.S. stablecoin legislation. Stablecoins offer faster, lower-cost transactions for global payments, as per **The Motley Fool** research.

Ethereum dominates about half of **decentralized finance (DeFi)** activity and stablecoin circulation. Historically, funds on the network, transaction volume, and price are closely correlated. Even if stablecoin volumes only double or triple, it could significantly boost Ethereum's price.

Currently trading around $2,100—down nearly 60% from its all-time high—Ethereum presents an opportunity. It could not only reclaim that high but potentially reach $10,000 in the coming years. However, as the stablecoin market expands, Ethereum's ability to retain market share will be crucial. For instance, **JPMorgan Chase** built its tokenized money fund on Ethereum but is also part of a group developing its own ledger.

## 2. Solana: The High-Speed Contender

**Solana (SOL)** benefits from increasing blockchain adoption. While Ethereum has a first-mover advantage, Solana processes more transactions per second at lower costs. It ranks second to Ethereum in network funds and developer activity, making it a major player in stablecoins and **tokenization** of real-world assets.

![Solana Stock Quote](https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FSOL.png&w=128&op=resize)

Solana has overcome past technical issues like outages and now handles high transaction volumes resiliently. Its price has fallen about 55% in the past six months, not escaping the crypto slump, but it remains a prime candidate for growth once market confidence returns.

*Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are advertising partners of Motley Fool Money. The author holds positions in Ethereum and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, JPMorgan Chase, and Solana.*

Smart-contract cryptos could be the silver to Bitcoin's digital gold.

Silver's 2026 Surge? These 2 Cryptocurrencies Could Outperform with Massive Upside Potential

## Bitcoin's Prediction Market Puzzle

Things look a bit grim for **Bitcoin** right now. It's down 42% from its all-time high of $126,000 from a few months ago and trades for just $72,000.

No wonder **prediction market traders on Polymarket** are only giving Bitcoin a 1% chance of hitting the $150,000 price level by the end of March. After all, it's almost inconceivable that Bitcoin could rally by a head-spinning 108% in the course of just 30 days.

But those 1% odds might be telling a very different story about Bitcoin than people think. Here's why.

## Bitcoin's Volatility

Many investors continue to underestimate Bitcoin's **volatility**. Even in years when Bitcoin has had monster rallies, it has also had its share of peaks and valleys. The price of Bitcoin does not go straight up, even in good years.

The long-term trajectory, of course, is straight up. But along the way, there are plenty of panics, sell-offs, and flash crashes.

Here's a Bitcoin chart for 2020, when it rallied in price by an incredible 304%. Bitcoin literally quadrupled in price that year, but there were plenty of head-fakes, abrupt turns, and fake-outs for the first nine months. It was only in October that Bitcoin really turned on the afterburners.

![Bitcoin chart](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/)

And, if you study the historical data for Bitcoin, one fact becomes readily apparent: Bitcoin can turn on a dime. It can be down 40% one quarter and then rebound by 25% in the next quarter, as it did in 2021. There is no such thing as a gradual recovery with Bitcoin.

In short, Bitcoin is more volatile than any typical stock. It may not really matter what Bitcoin does in one quarter, because it can abruptly reverse course in the next quarter. That's why Bitcoin's poor first-quarter performance in 2026 might matter less than you think.

![Excited person looks at phone.](https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F857295%2Fexcited-man-happy-good-news.jpg&w=700)

## Binary "Yes/No" Outcomes

According to new research from **Galaxy Digital**, prediction markets tend to overstate consensus. This is due to their emphasis on binary "yes/no" outcomes.

That's what sometimes trips up prediction market traders. They see a 1% chance of an event occurring in the future and immediately assume there's massive consensus among traders. Right now, it seems like the entire crypto universe is against Bitcoin.

However, there's a big difference between thinking that Bitcoin might hit a certain price and being absolutely, 100% convinced. Those on the fence about Bitcoin might change their opinions overnight. Once they do, the probabilities might shift markedly.

## What Were the Odds of Bitcoin Hitting $100,000?

I'm taking that 1% probability of **Bitcoin hitting $150,000** by the end of March with a grain of salt. That's because I'm not focused on Bitcoin's price on a quarter-over-quarter or even an annual basis. I'm looking at Bitcoin's price over the long haul.

With that in mind, Bitcoin is a **cryptocurrency** that has seen exponential price growth over an incredibly short period of time. Thirteen years ago, I'm sure that anyone trying to predict the future price of Bitcoin when it was trading for under $100 could never have predicted a day when Bitcoin traded for upwards of $100,000. After all, 1000x returns in the span of just over a decade would have been just too improbable, right?

Key PointsPolymarket traders give Bitcoin just a 1% chance of hitting $150,000 by the end of March.

Why Bitcoin's 1% Chance to Hit $150,000 by March Might Be Misleading – The Wild Card You Can't Ignore

**XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.25 billion since launching in November 2025**, locking 810 million tokens in institutional custody in the process. At launch, the assets went 35 consecutive trading days without a single outflow—a streak even Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs couldn’t match.

XRP trades near $1.40 right now, and the token has been in the red since the turn of the year—and as institutions keep buying, the XRP price keeps falling.

The disconnect between institutional buying and falling prices makes investors wonder how much ETF inflow would actually lift the XRP price. We’ve analyzed the ideal ETF threshold that would create a meaningful supply squeeze—enough to move the XRP price from $1.40 to at least the $2 mark.

## Why XRP ETF Inflows Haven’t Moved Price Yet

![Businessman pointing at ETF (Exchange Traded Funds). Investment Opportunities in Mutual Funds and ETFs, Growing Wealth in the Financial Market.](https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/shutterstock-2484369079-huge-licensed-scaled.jpg)

Spot XRP ETFs pulled in **$88 million in the first three months of 2026** while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs both posted net outflows over the same stretch. XRP’s ETF adoption has outpaced every other altcoin launch—but the token still sits 62% below its July 2025 high.

A big part of the reason is who’s been selling. Since early 2026, roughly **3.8 billion XRP flowed onto Binance**, creating heavy resistance around the $1.50 level. In late February alone, 472 million XRP—about $660 million worth—hit Binance in a single wave after U.S.-Iran tensions escalated. Daily ETF inflows of $7-10 million can’t absorb that kind of volume.

Bitcoin hasn’t helped either. The Bitcoin price dropped roughly 50% from its October 2025 highs and spent most of early 2026 between $65,000 and $70,000. XRP’s correlation with BTC remains high, so when risk assets sell off globally, XRP follows—regardless of how much institutional money is flowing into ETFs on the side.

The other thing worth understanding is that institutions allocating to XRP ETFs are making long-term portfolio decisions, not placing speculative bets on a price spike next week. That kind of demand builds a floor under price—it prevents deeper crashes—but it doesn’t create the sharp buying bursts that drive rallies. The $1.25 billion in cumulative inflows has quietly removed 810 million XRP from the tradable float, and that supply isn’t coming back.

All of which brings up the obvious next question: how much more ETF inflow tips that balance from slow accumulation into a supply squeeze that actually moves the XRP price?

## How Much XRP ETF Demand Would Move XRP Price

![ETF of the cryptocurrency XRP, Ripple.](https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/shutterstock-2601603397-medium-licensed.jpg)

**About 810 million XRP currently sits in ETF custody**—roughly 1.3% of the 61.1 billion tokens in circulation. Bitcoin ETFs, by contrast, hold over 6% of BTC’s total supply, and that concentration was a key driver behind BTC’s 2024 rally. At 1.3%, XRP’s ETF footprint just isn’t big enough to move price on its own yet. What works in investors’ favor, though, is that accumulation at lower prices locks up more supply per dollar: at $1.40 per XRP, every $1 billion in new ETF assets removes about 714 million tokens from the tradable float, compared to just 500 million at $2.00.

Moreover, **XRP on centralized exchanges has dropped roughly 57% over the past year**—from about 4 billion tokens down to 1.6-1.7 billion—and ETFs already hold close to half of what remains. When tradable supply gets that thin, even moderate buying pressure can cause outsized price moves because there simply aren’t enough tokens sitting on order books to absorb it.

If AUM doubles to $2 billion, ETFs would hold around 1.4 billion XRP, or about 2.3% of circulating supply. That alone probably isn’t enough to trigger a breakout, but it proves that institutional demand has staying power beyond the initial launch hype—and that matters for what comes next.

**$3 billion is where things get more serious**, because Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg has pointed to that level as the zone where BlackRock would seriously consider filing its own XRP ETF. A BlackRock entry would be a credibility event—its Bitcoin ETF alone holds over $54 billion—and Standard Chartered’s revised XRP price prediction of $2.80 assumes inflows roughly in this range, though the bank still holds a $28 long-term target for 2030.

**At $5 billion, ETFs would hold roughly 3.5 billion XRP at current prices**—more than all the XRP sitting on exchanges combined. Once that happens, every new dollar of demand competes for a shrinking pool of tokens, and the supply squeeze that investors have been waiting for stops being a theory and starts showing up in the price.

## What Could Push XRP ETFs to $5 Billion or Keep Them Stuck

![A close-up of a businessman's hand holding a silver pen, pointing upwards towards a white arrow on a translucent digital display. The display features three blue hexagonal boxes spelling 'ETF' at the top, a candlestick chart with red and blue bars and an overlaying white line graph showing an upward trend, and various smaller digital graphs at the bottom. The background is a dark blue, digitally rendered with faint bokeh lights.](https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/shutterstock-2496367413-huge-licensed-scaled.jpg)

At the current pace of $7-10 million per day, getting from $1 billion to $5 billion in AUM would take well into 2027. A few developments could compress that timeline dramatically, and **BlackRock is the biggest one**. The firm’s Bitcoin ETF gathered $54 billion and reshaped how institutions approach crypto, and Canary Capital’s CEO expects a BlackRock XRP filing once existing ETF assets climb past $3 billion.

Another key factor is how many times the Fed cuts rates this year. Two to three cuts are expected through 2026, and lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets—which is part of why institutions moved into Bitcoin ETFs so aggressively in 2024. Each cut makes the case for crypto allocations a little easier to justify inside traditional portfolios, and if that plays out, XRP ETF inflows could climb to $5 billion or beyond.

Additionally, **Ripple’s banking relationships** could help, though this one cuts both ways. More than 300 banks sit on RippleNet, but only about 40% use On-Demand Liquidity where XRP actually serves as the bridge asset. Deutsche Bank’s February 2026 integration uses Ripple’s rails without touching XRP at all—and if banks keep choosing the infrastructure without needing the token, XRP’s utility argument weakens even as Ripple’s business grows. But if banks start adopting the token for settlement, that could spark a wave of institutional interest that pushes ETF assets well past the $5 billion mark.

On the other hand, the path to $5 billion stalls if AUM keeps sliding instead. ETF assets already dropped from $1.6 billion in January to roughly $1 billion today, and another stretch of outflows like that pushes the timeline further out. Again, the Bitcoin price falling below $60,000 would drag the XRP price down with it and shake investor conviction about buying ETFs in the first place. And the 3.8 billion XRP moving onto Binance since early 2026 suggests large holders are willing to sell into any rally that builds—which could keep the XRP price under pressure and make ETF investors think twice about whether the token is worth backing.

## What XRP ETF Investors Should Watch Through 2026

**Bitcoin recovering above $70,000 matters more for the XRP price right now** than anything Ripple or the ETF issuers can do on their own. A BlackRock filing would be huge and $5 billion in AUM would change everything—but institutional money follows BTC first, and the broader crypto market needs to stabilize before any of those bigger catalysts can take hold.

Until then, XRP is more likely to trade between $1.30 and $2.00 through mid-2026 while ETFs keep pulling supply off exchanges in the background. If current inflows hold, the 810 million XRP locked today could reach 1.5 billion by year-end—and when that much supply quietly disappears from the market, the price tends to catch up.

XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.25 billion since launching in November 2025, locking 810 million tokens in institutional custody in the process. At launch, the assets went 35 consecutive trading days without a single outflow—a streak even Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs couldn’t match. XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) trades near $1.40 right now, and the token has ... The $5 Billion Question: How Much ETF Inflow Does the XRP Price Need to Break Out?

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