## Bitcoin's Rally Falters Amid Market Turmoil

Bitcoin's attempt to reclaim $70,000 earlier in the week lasted about 48 hours.

The largest cryptocurrency slid to **$65,735** in early Asian hours on Saturday, down **3%** over the past day and **2.8%** on the week. Wednesday's rally, which came within touching distance of $70,000, has now given back more than half its gains as broader risk sentiment deteriorated through Thursday and Friday's U.S. sessions.

## Altcoins Take a Harder Hit

Altcoins took a harder hit. **Solana dropped 6.7%**, ether fell 6.2%, **dogecoin shed 5.1%**, and **XRP lost 4%**. The losses pushed most major tokens into the red on a weekly basis, erasing the altcoin outperformance that had been the week's most encouraging signal. BNB held up better than most, down just 2.5%.

## Triggers Behind the Sell-Off

The trigger was familiar. Friday's U.S. session saw the **S&P 500 close down 0.4%**, the Nasdaq 100 drop 0.3%, and the Dow fall 1.1%. **Nvidia**, still digesting its post-earnings reaction, shed another 4.2%.

A hotter-than-expected **0.5% jump in producer prices** added fuel, signaling inflationary pressure that may keep the Fed from cutting rates anytime soon. Block Inc.'s massive layoffs fanned broader anxiety that AI is starting to displace jobs across the economy rather than just creating them.

Crypto followed equities lower, but as usual, with amplified magnitude. A 0.4% drop in the S&P became a 3% drop in bitcoin and a more than 6% drop in altcoins. The leverage that re-entered the system during Wednesday's rally got flushed on the way back down.

## Institutional Flows vs. Macro Headwinds

The irony is that the institutional flow data this week was actually strong.

**U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs added $1.1 billion in three days**, putting them on pace for their best week in months. But ETF inflows haven't been enough to overcome the broader macro headwinds.

"Over-analysis of short-term price movements is misguided," said Dom Harz, co-founder of bitcoin finance firm BOB said in an email. "Bitcoin's volatility is no surprise, particularly for early investors who have experienced previous cycles. What's different this time is the type of capital behind the emerging asset class."

## Key Data Points and Market Signals

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows **USDT stablecoin reserves on exchanges have fallen from $60 billion to $51.1 billion** over the past two months, a decline the firm warned could trigger a "massive sell-off" if reserves drop below $50 billion.

Elsewhere, Strategy shares topped the list of large U.S. companies by short interest volume as markets increasingly question the sustainability of the firm's debt-funded bitcoin buying program.

And on the Ethereum side, large holders have started selling at a loss, with DAT company ETHZilla officially abandoning its ETH accumulation strategy and rebranding to focus on tokenized real-world assets instead.

## Bitcoin's Current Range and Future Outlook

Bitcoin is now back in the middle of the **$60,000-$70,000 range** it has been stuck in since the Feb. 5 crash. Wednesday proved the top of that range is resistance. The question heading into March is whether the bottom still holds.

The pullback erased most of Wednesday's push toward $70,000 as hot producer-price data and a post-earnings Nvidia decline dragged risk assets lower heading into the weekend.

Bitcoin Plunges to $65,000: Weekend Sell-Off Wipes Gains as Altcoins Crash 6%

Six Polymarket accounts earned roughly **$1.2 million** after correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on Feb. 28, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.

In a [post](https://x.com/bubblemaps/status/2027718004193300791) on X, blockchain analyzer Bubblemaps said most of the wallets were funded within the last 24 hours before the attack and bought **“Yes” shares** in the “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions.

![Suspected insiders (Bubblemaps)](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F2fcc5edda8cfa1af90633a9bbc899592fba0901d-1166x1184.png%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=3840&q=75)

*Suspected insiders (Bubblemaps)*

The strikes followed a televised address by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing what he called “major combat operations,” targeting the country’s missile, naval, and nuclear infrastructure. The attack saw **bitcoin’s price drop** while **oil futures on Hyperliquid rose**.

One Polymarket account Bubblemaps pointed to purchased more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, a position that paid out near **$560,000** after the market resolved at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, turning a six-figure profit. All six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data.

Trading volume on the Feb. 28 contract [reached](https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by/us-strikes-iran-by-march-1-2026-492) nearly **$90 million**, part of more than **$529 million** wagered across related strike-date markets since December.

Bubblemaps published a visual map showing the six wallets clustered together and funded through similar paths.

## Insider trading probes

The trades land as U.S. regulators weigh how to police insider activity on prediction markets. This week, rival platform Kalshi said it [suspended and fined](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/02/25/mrbeast-editor-nabbed-by-prediction-market-firm-kalshi-for-alleged-insider-trading) two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s “Beast Games” who allegedly traded on knowledge of show outcomes.

Kalshi, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market, said it has investigated about **200 cases** and has more than a dozen active probes.

The CFTC issued an advisory noting the enforcement actions and warned that insider trading on event contracts may violate U.S. law. Chairman Mike Selig called exchanges the **“first line of defense.”** Kalshi banned the employee for two years and fined him more than $20,000. In a separate case, a political candidate was penalized for betting on his own race.

More recently, Polymarket traders have appeared to [insider trade a market on insider trading itself.](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/27/polymarket-bettors-appear-to-have-insider-traded-on-a-market-designed-to-catch-insider-traders) Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT last week teased that he would publish the findings of an investigation into a crypto platform, which turned out to be Axiom, whose employees he believed used non-public information to trade.

Teasing the investigation was coming, however, led to the creation of a Polymarket contract on which company would be named. Some clearly knew the answer to which company was under investigation, with Lookonchain identifying **12 wallets** that heavily bet on Axiom ahead of the reveal.

The strikes caused bitcoin’s price to fall and oil futures on Hyperliquid to rise over the regional conflict’s consequences.

Insiders Pocket $1.2M on Polymarket by Betting on U.S. Iran Strike - How Prediction Markets Are Being Gamed

We asked four leading AI models—ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and DeepSeek—to predict XRP's price by December 31, 2026. Their forecasts range from $1.4 to $14, creating a 10x gap between the most cautious and most aggressive predictions. Despite XRP trading near $1.40, down 60% from its July 2025 high of $3.65, all four models are **bullish on XRP's long-term outlook**.

![Ripple (XRP) and cryptocurrency investing](https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/shutterstock-1105587191-huge-licensed-scaled.jpg)

## What ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and DeepSeek Predict for XRP

Each AI model approaches XRP prediction differently:

1. **ChatGPT**: Expects XRP to finish 2026 between **$3 and $4** if ETF inflows continue and macro conditions stabilize. In a bullish scenario with ETF assets climbing past $5 billion, it sees **$6-$8** as possible. ChatGPT assigns a 55% probability to the $2-$4 range.

2. **Claude**: Ties predictions to specific conditions. Its base forecast is **$2.50-$3.20**, but the upside stretches to **$14**—the highest of all models—if ETF inflows exceed $10 billion, banks adopt ODL widely, and macro tailwinds align.

3. **Grok**: Made headlines with a **$10** prediction, but its base case is more modest at **$2.50-$3.50**. Grok acknowledges that reaching $10 would require a supply squeeze, sustained institutional demand, and bullish sentiment holding through year-end.

4. **DeepSeek**: The most bullish model, projecting **$5-$8** by late 2026, driven by growth in Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity corridors and RLUSD stablecoin adoption. In an optimistic scenario, it predicts **$8-$10**.

| AI Model | Bear Case | Base Case | Bull Case | Key Catalyst |
|----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|--------------|
| ChatGPT  | $1.40-$2  | $3-$4     | $6-$8     | ETF inflows >$5B |
| Claude   | $1.40     | $2.50-$3.20 | $4-$14   | Banking adoption + ETF >$10B |
| Grok     | $1.50     | $2.50-$3.50 | $10      | Supply squeeze + sentiment |
| DeepSeek | $2        | $5-$8     | $8-$10    | ODL + RLUSD growth |

At current prices near $1.40, even the most conservative forecast implies **XRP doubles by year-end**, while the most aggressive suggests a **10x surge**.

![Golden Ripple XRP Coin on Futuristic Digital Technology Background](https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/shutterstock-2575205593-huge-licensed-scaled.jpg)

## Where All Four Models Agree on XRP Price

Despite the wide range, the AI models share several key consensus points:

- **Bear case floors cluster between $1.40 and $2**, anchored to the $1.30-$1.50 support level. None project a collapse below $1 unless Bitcoin breaks below $60,000.

- **Institutional flows—not retail speculation—will set XRP's direction**. Seven spot XRP ETFs hold $1.06 billion in assets, with roughly 795 million XRP locked. While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows, XRP products pulled in $3.5 million last week, capturing **50% of new capital entering altcoin ETFs**.

- **Exchange balances show institutional accumulation**. Supply on exchanges has dropped **55% since October 2025**, with XRP moving into cold storage rather than circulating for quick trades.

- All models treat **ETF accumulation as the clearest signal** of whether XRP stays range-bound or breaks higher, though they disagree on the threshold—ChatGPT says $5 billion, Claude says $10 billion.

![Ripple XRP cryptocurrency coin in front of colorful abstract background with candlestick chart diagram](https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/shutterstock-1933430285-huge-licensed-scaled.jpg)

## What Separates a $2 XRP Price Prediction From $14

The wide margin between predictions comes down to **how many catalysts need to fire at once**:

- ChatGPT's $3-$4 base case assumes **ETF inflows continue** and nothing else changes.
- Claude's $14 requires **ETF assets to hit $10 billion** (8x current levels) plus **widespread bank adoption** of Ripple's ODL service.

**Banking adoption is where models diverge most**. Ripple's network includes over 300 financial institutions, but many use RippleNet's messaging without holding XRP. ChatGPT and Grok weigh this heavily—network growth doesn't guarantee token demand. Claude and DeepSeek see it differently—once banks are on the network, ODL adoption follows, meaning actual settlement with XRP.

The numbers get challenging at higher prices. At $10, XRP's market cap hits roughly **$570 billion**—close to Ethereum today. At $14, it exceeds **$800 billion**. Grok flagged its $10 target as "ambitious by any measure," while Claude's $14 assumes XRP captures a real slice of **SWIFT's $150 trillion annual payment market**.

The question becomes: do these catalysts compound or cancel out? The conservative view says they're independent—ETF inflows might hit $5 billion while bank adoption stalls. The aggressive view says **success feeds success**—higher prices draw more institutions, which drives adoption, lifting prices again.

## What Would Push XRP Toward $5—or Back to $1

The path to $5 requires **ETF inflows to hit $3-5 billion** and at least **one major bank to adopt ODL for actual settlement**—not just messaging.

The path back to $1 requires **Bitcoin to break below $60,000** and **ETF outflows to turn from single red days into a sustained trend**.

At $1.40, even the most conservative forecast implies XRP doubles by December. ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and DeepSeek disagree on how high—but **all four predict XRP finishes 2026 above $2**.

ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and DeepSeek predict XRP finishing 2026 between $1.4 and $14. Here's where they agree and why they disagree.

AI Predicts XRP's Future: Will It Hit $14 or Crash to $1.4 by 2026?

**MARA Holdings** is rallying after announcing plans to scale part of its data centers into AI-capable infrastructure, boosting its stock by 11% early Friday. This move comes as cryptocurrency stocks generally climb this week, driven by quarterly results and a rebound in **bitcoin ETF inflows**.

### Bitcoin Price and ETF Flows
Bitcoin's price jumped as high as $69,953 late Wednesday, up from around $63,000 on Tuesday, before easing back near $66,000 by Friday morning. The surge aligns with **spot bitcoin ETFs** registering $1.018 billion in inflows over the past three trading days, including $506.6 million on Wednesday—the highest single-day inflow since Feb. 2, according to SoSoValue data. These ETFs are on track for their first week of inflows after five consecutive weeks of capital declines. However, BTC remains down more than 26% over the past month and trades well below its October record high near $126,200.

### MARA's Strategic Partnership
MARA reported a loss of $4.52 per share on a 6% decline in revenue to $202 million, missing analyst expectations. Separately, it announced a partnership with **Starwood Capital Group** to convert select data center sites into AI- and hyperscale-capable digital infrastructure. Starwood Digital Ventures will lead design and development, while MARA contributes energy-advanced sites. The joint venture aims to deliver about 1 gigawatt of near-term capacity, with a pathway to over 2.5GW. CEO Fred Thiel stated, "This partnership will accelerate our expansion into high-performance computing and advance our strategy to build an integrated, energy-backed digital infrastructure platform."

### Other Bitcoin Miners' Performance
- **TeraWulf** reported a widened 2025 loss of $1.66 per share, with revenue surging over 20% to $168.46 million. Its stock fell 8% early Friday, paring a 55% rally this year.
- **Figure Technologies** saw earnings improve to 6 cents per share but missed estimates, with revenue soaring about 91% to $159.9 million. Its stock retreated 15% Friday and has dropped about 30% since Dec. 31.
- **American Bitcoin** reported Q4 revenue of $78.32 million, short of estimates, with a net loss of $59.5 million. The company held 5,401 bitcoin at year-end, increasing to over 6,000, with 2,776 pledged or collateralized. Shares declined 1.8% Friday and have tumbled more than 36% this year.

Overall, the cryptocurrency sector shows mixed signals, with MARA's AI plans driving optimism amid broader market volatility.

MARA rallies on data center plans. TeraWulf, Figure skid. American Bitcoin pares gains. Bitcoin ETF flows tracking to break five-week rut.

MARA's AI Data Center Partnership Sparks Surge as Bitcoin ETF Flows Break 5-Week Rut

## Key Points

Despite multiple positive developments for the cryptocurrency industry, prices have tumbled since the summer.

XRP and Dogecoin have both seen their circulating supply increase over time, which weighs on token prices.

That said, one cryptocurrency's superior utility makes it the better buy.

If someone told you that the U.S. government would announce plans for a **Strategic Bitcoin Reserve** and pass the **Genius Act** for a regulatory framework on stablecoins, you'd probably assume that cryptocurrencies would have a fantastic year.

But that's not how it played out. While there were some good moments, cryptocurrency prices tumbled since the summer. **XRP** (CRYPTO: XRP) and **Dogecoin** (CRYPTO: DOGE) have declined by 37% and 52% respectively, over the past 12 months. The market has seemingly shied away from speculative assets, which helps explain the slide. Remember, cryptocurrencies are notoriously volatile, both up and down.

That doesn't offer much of a silver lining amid these ongoing downturns. Perhaps the more important question is, which crypto has the better risk/reward right now?

![The word "crypto" spelled out in block letters surrounded by red downward-pointing arrows.](https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F856951%2Fcrypto-falling-token-prices-red-arrows.jpg&w=700)

Image source: Getty Images.

## What Exactly Influences XRP and Dogecoin Prices?

The first thing to remember about cryptocurrencies is that they don't have any tangible underlying value. For instance, gold is a precious metal you can hold in your hand. Real estate is another physical asset. Stocks represent businesses that earn revenue and profits. Cryptocurrencies aren't worthless, but their **prices primarily depend** on token supply and investor demand.

Developers set rules that determine how new tokens enter circulation. It turns out that both cryptocurrencies have issues managing their supply. Dogecoin issues **5 billion new tokens per year** and has no supply cap. The XRP ledger burns a small amount of tokens with each transaction, but the circulating supply has still increased over time. As a result, rising supply weighs on the market prices of both XRP and Dogecoin.

Investors want to own cryptocurrencies for various reasons, and XRP and Dogecoin serve very different purposes. XRP is the native token of the **XRP ledger**, a blockchain for facilitating cross-border transactions. Meanwhile, Dogecoin is the **first meme token** and is widely known among crypto investors for its community.

## Why XRP Has More Upside and Less Downside Than Dogecoin

The primary reason is that the XRP ledger still has significant potential for real-world applications. Institutions have launched exchange-traded funds for both cryptocurrencies, but the XRP ledger still has enormous potential in payments and finance. The XRP ledger competes against **SWIFT**, the messaging network that banks use for virtually all cross-border payments.

The XRP ledger is cheaper and faster to use, and could start to see more opportunities now that **Ripple Labs**, which developed and launched XRP, has ended years-long litigation with U.S. regulators. Ripple Labs launched a stablecoin in late 2024 that could benefit from the Genius Act.

Dogecoin and other meme tokens must stay popular to support their prices. It's still relatively easy for anyone to create and launch meme tokens, which means Dogecoin has plenty of competition for investor money. This is all before factoring in its ever-growing supply.

Meme tokens can be fun, but XRP is the clear choice as a serious long-term investment.

Key PointsDespite multiple positive developments for the cryptocurrency industry, prices have tumbled since the summer.

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