Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. An Iran attack killed two U.S. service members as Tehran escalates tensions. **Google-parent Alphabet**, **Tesla**, **Intel**, **GE Vernova** and **Interactive Brokers** headline a big week of earnings, along with an **AMD AI event**.

## Market Overview: AI Stocks Hit Hard, But Real Economy Shines

The stock market saw losses this past week, but they were concentrated in the Nasdaq and especially AI stocks. **SpaceX** (SPCX) dived well below its IPO price. However, many stocks in the **medical, financial, energy and transportation sectors** are showing strength. Still, investors should be playing more defense than offense, cutting losers and continuing to take profits.

## Key Earnings This Week

- **Interactive Brokers** (IBRK) reports Tuesday night.
- **GE Vernova** (GEV) reports early Wednesday.
- **Alphabet** (GOOGL) and **Tesla** (TSLA) are scheduled for late Wednesday.
- **Intel** (INTC) is due Thursday evening.
- **AMD** will hold the AMD Advancing AI event on Wednesday, with CEO Lisa Su a featured speaker.

## Iran Attack Escalation

On Saturday, an Iran missile attack killed two U.S. troops and wounded several at a Jordan air base. Iran also launched heavy attacks on Kuwait, striking an oil facility. A top Iranian official said Tehran is suspending all commitments under the 60-day ceasefire. **Crude oil prices surged 15.5% last week** to $82.49 a barrel, which could hit transportation and other real-economy stocks.

## Stock Market Rally: Divergence Between AI and Real Economy

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 0.9% last week. The S&P 500 slumped 1.55% to just below its 50-day line. The Nasdaq composite tumbled 2.9%, diving below its 50-day line. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell only 0.5%. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) slipped 0.45%.

**AI and chip stocks sold off heavily**, including Dell Technologies, Sandisk, and Micron Technology. Many AI names look broken. In contrast, real economy names had a strong week, with buy signals in truckers (J.B. Hunt), banks (Goldman Sachs), payment stocks (Flywire), and big pharma (Merck, Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson).

## SpaceX and Tesla: A Tale of Two Stocks

SpaceX dived 14.7% to 123.99, falling far below the $135 IPO price. Its market cap is now $1.64 trillion, down $1 trillion from its peak. Tesla stock sank 6.6% for the week, now clearly below all key moving averages. Strong Q2 delivery figures bode well for Thursday's earnings, but TSLA's valuation is largely based on hopes for robotaxis and robotics.

## Key Levels to Watch

- **Google** stock hit resistance at the 50-day line; a decisive move above could provide an early entry.
- **GEV** reclaimed its 50-day line on Friday; a strong earnings reaction could offer a buying opportunity.
- **Intel** has fallen well below its 50-day line.
- **Interactive Brokers** held its 50-day line on Friday.
- **AMD** shares dived 11.1% last week but nearly held the 50-day line; a strong move above could offer a pullback entry.

## Market Outlook: Defense Mode

The stock market is difficult right now. The AI trade is heavily damaged. While many non-AI groups are showing strength, market volatility and the risk of renewed sector rotations make new buys tricky. Earnings season and U.S.-Iran news add to the uncertainty.

**Investors can try some new buys, but should consider smaller position sizes and tight stop-losses.** Definitely dump losers and follow sell rules on winning positions that have come under pressure. Work on watchlists—many stocks are in buy areas or setting up.

*Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.*

Dow Jones futures: An Iran attack killed two U.S. service members. Google earnings loom large, along with Tesla, Intel, GE Vernova.

AI Stocks Crashing? Here's Your Post-Sell-Off Game Plan & Key Earnings to Watch

The scale of the graft is decidedly off the charts, but the revelation that Donald Trump raked in a personal fortune of **$2.2 billion** during his first year in office should come as no surprise. The president didn’t even try to hide his venality. Not only did he refuse to sell businesses and put assets in a blind trust, as other presidents have done to limit opportunities for self-dealing; the quid pro quos with foreign governments and assorted magnates were exposed for all to see.

It is troubling that the president of the United States would so nonchalantly deploy his official powers to profit from dealings with **money launderers** and **Middle Eastern princes**. It is perhaps more so that the supposedly robust checks and balances upholding American governance proved powerless to stop him.

What’s most worrying, at the moment, though, is the extent to which Trump put at risk the stability of the **United States economy**. His business dealings are not little grifts that are harmless to America. Trump’s most lucrative maneuver – which netted him **$1.2 billion** – came from the cryptocurrency industry. The pro quo from Washington included getting regulators off crypto’s case and plugging the currency into the formal financial system. That is likely to prove immensely costly to us all.

Seventeen years since bitcoin emerged on the scene, crypto hasn’t yet found a purpose other than to pay for crime, allow countries like Russia and Iran to avoid American sanctions and provide **volatile assets** for fools and gamblers to bet their savings on – like Dutch tulips in the 17th century, though not as pretty.

Trump once said crypto was a “scam.” That was before the industry piled gobs of money into his presidential campaign and, notably, before he took a personal stake in the business. He launched the crypto company **World Liberty Financial** (of which he sold 49% to an investment firm tied to the United Arab Emirates for $500 million) and issued his memecoin **$Trump**, which cost naive, Maga-friendly investors nearly **$4 billion** but netted the president more than $600 million.

Trump nixed the crypto-enforcement program at the **Securities and Exchange Commission** – aborting crypto-related lawsuits and investigations – and gutted the unit in charge of overseeing the industry. The **Department of Justice** announced it would pull back investigations and prosecutions of money laundering and other shenanigans against crypto-related platforms.

Then, campaign coffers seeded with generous contributions from the industry, 206 Republicans and 102 Democrats in Congress passed the **Genius Act**, which Trump aggressively promoted, that entangled crypto in the regular banking system, where your and my savings live.

Banks and non-banks – even retailers like Walmart – can now issue their own **stablecoin**, a type of cryptocurrency, pegged at a fixed value of $1, that today is used almost exclusively to buy and sell riskier crypto assets like bitcoin.

Unlike bank accounts, stablecoin holdings are **not insured by the FDIC**. Issuers will guarantee their value by investing all the proceeds in high-quality assets, like treasury bills. The promise is that this will broaden their use outside of the speculative crypto space and allow them to be a payment platform that cheaply executes transactions in real time on a decentralized electronic ledger. This could mean quicker and cheaper international transfers, for instance.

The financiers are piling in. As of early June, there were **233 stablecoins** available on the crypto market. **Mastercard** is buying up crypto businesses and accepting settlements in stablecoin. Big banks like Citi and JPMorgan hope to defend their business from crypto upstarts by setting up their own crypto deposit infrastructure and launching their own coins. Brokers are allowing customers to invest with stablecoin.

And Trump is pushing hard for swift passage of the **Clarity Act**, which would offer regulation-light legal cover for the broader universe of crypto businesses to issue and support trading in more speculative assets like bitcoin.

As Yale’s Gary Gorton and Jeffery Zhang from the University of Michigan wrote: “Some policymakers may view stablecoins as an up-and-coming financial innovation that does not currently pose any systemic risk and therefore believe that the best strategy is to wait to see how things play out. That would be a terrible mistake.”

Indeed, to the enthusiasts embracing crypto in the name of technological progress, I have a vintage 2006 mortgage-backed bond to sell you. The “efficiency” case for inviting crypto in from the cold ignores the enormous stress it is likely to impose on the financial system. It’s been almost 20 years since the last massive financial crisis. It looks like Trump and his crypto-funded cronies are happy to engineer the next.

As they become established in the financial ecosystem, stablecoins will inevitably draw money from somewhere else, perhaps some foreigners who want dollar assets, but also, inevitably, commercial banks. This may feed demand for treasurys – helping Washington finance its massive debt – but will also **reduce lending** to the real economy.

The payment system will be remade as hundreds of different private stablecoins, each with its own risk profile, compete for business. Stablecoin issuers will be tempted to stretch the rules, which require that they invest the proceeds in only the safest assets to guarantee their $1 peg. Many will instead buy riskier, higher-yielding stuff. As the Rutgers economist Michael Bordo pointed out: “There are always new entities that are going to figure out a way to be outside the regulatory net.” The “who owns what” question will invite the stablecoin equivalent of **bank runs**.

Even if most issuers invest largely in the safest treasurys, the set-up – opaque, lacking a lender of last resort – invites chaos. As Barry Eichengreen from the University of California, Berkeley noted: “If panicked customers force [issuers of stablecoin] to sell, treasury prices could collapse, sharply increasing interest rates and destabilizing other financial markets and our entire economy.”

Rather than allow all comers to issue private stablecoins, the government could ask the **Federal Reserve** to issue a digital dollar, fully backed – like the regular dollar – by faith in the solvency of the United States. The benefits of the new technology could be enjoyed across the economy without incurring the risk of a massive run to topple the system as a whole.

The problem with that model, however, is obvious: it would not provide the same opportunity for Trump and his family to rake in another few billion.

Cheerleading by the president, who made $1.2bn last year off uninsured currency, does not bode well for US economy

Trump's Crypto Embrace: A $2.2 Billion Gamble That Could Crash the US Economy

## Market Overview

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to **$63,000** on Friday as the Nasdaq trimmed its early losses, recovering from a dip to $62,800. The broader market selloff in chipmakers initially dragged risk assets lower, pulling bitcoin back from the **$65,000** level reached earlier this week on a soft inflation print.

## Key Developments

### AI Trade Wipeout Hits Crypto Stocks
Crypto-related stocks tied to the AI trade led declines. Former bitcoin miners-turned-data-center providers like **Hut 8 (HUT)**, **Bitdeer (DTDR)**, and **MARA Holdings (MARA)** dropped over **7%**. Strategy (MSTR) fell 2.25%, while Coinbase (COIN), Bullish (BLSH), and Circle (CRCL) each lost about **1.5%**.

### Bitcoin's Downtrend Channel Intact
Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that bitcoin's reversal attempt failed, with the price dropping back below its **50-day moving average** and returning to the downtrend channel that has held since June. The lower boundary sits near **$56,000**, with support at $61,000 and $59,000.

### Oil Surge Could Reignite Inflation Worries
WTI crude oil futures are on track for their best weekly gain since April, surging nearly **12%**. The rebound could revive inflation fears, potentially dragging bitcoin lower after its recent gains from cooler inflation data.

### Other Notable Stories
- **SpaceX** in talks with the Pentagon for a computing capacity deal worth billions.
- **Trump Media** reportedly pitching a **$100,000/month** fee for faster access to Trump's social media posts.
- **Meta and Anthropic** in talks on a **$10 billion** computing power deal.
- **Apple** reclaims the most valuable company spot from Nvidia.
- **Galaxy Digital** inks a stadium naming rights deal with Texas Tech.

## Market Sentiment
Bitcoin is down **2%** over the past 24 hours, with ether (ETH) at $1,815, down 3.5%. The Nasdaq narrowed its loss to **1%** after being down 2.5% at its worst. The Fed meets July 28-29, with markets watching for rate decisions.

*Image: Memory chips are the bedrock powering AI systems. (dujin yun/Pixabay)*

A deepening global selloff in chipmakers dragged risk assets lower, pulling bitcoin back from the $65,000 level it reached on this week's soft inflation print.

Bitcoin Bounces Back to $63K as Nasdaq Recovers: Chip Selloff Tests Crypto Resilience

A new open-source Bitcoin client called **DOG Mode** is challenging the stalled **BIP-110** proposal by bypassing consensus changes entirely. While BIP-110 aims to restrict non-financial data on Bitcoin through a user-activated soft fork that requires 55% miner support—and has received **zero miner backing**—DOG Mode takes the opposite approach: it relaxes relay policies without needing any vote.

### What is DOG Mode?
Proposed by **Leonidas**, co-founder of the Runestone project and a prominent figure in the Ordinals and Runes ecosystem, DOG Mode would modify two key limits in Bitcoin Core:
- **Raise the maximum standard transaction size** from 400,000 weight units to 3.9 million weight units (nearly a full block of 4 million).
- **Lower the dust limit** from 294-546 satoshis to just **1 satoshi**.

These changes would allow near-block-size transactions to be relayed and free up an estimated **$25 million** in “padding” currently used by Ordinals and Runes to meet the dust limit.

### How It Differs from BIP-110
BIP-110 is a **consensus rule change** that would require a supermajority of miners to activate—support that has never materialized. In contrast, DOG Mode only alters **relay policy**, which governs what individual nodes forward. This means:
- No signaling window, no threshold, no deadline.
- Only one miner needs to accept such transactions for them to be confirmed.
- It works alongside existing Bitcoin Core nodes without splitting the network.

### Current Status
As of now, DOG Mode exists only as an **announced initiative** without any code. Leonidas has called for developers to contribute to an initial release and for miners to add support. Meanwhile, BIP-110’s node support remains in the low single digits, carried almost entirely by Bitcoin Knots.

### Market Reaction
Following the announcement, **DOG prices** were little changed, down 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

### The Bigger Picture
DOG Mode represents a **new frontier** in Bitcoin governance: a client that changes what one node forwards, requiring no one's consent. As Leonidas put it, "Only one of them requires anyone's consent." Whether this approach gains traction or remains a fringe experiment will depend on developer adoption and miner willingness to process these transactions.

While BIP-110 wants to restrict data through a consensus change and has almost no miner support, a new DOG Mode client wants the opposite and requires no vote at all.

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