## Bitcoin Approaches Key Inflection Point

Crypto markets are approaching important inflection points after weeks of declines, according to Wall Street bank **Citi**. Bitcoin fell to around **$73,000** before stabilizing, extending a drawdown that has pushed prices below the bank's estimated average U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) entry price of **$81,600**. The largest cryptocurrency was trading around $76,100 at publication time.

## ETF Inflows Slow as Headwinds Build

The report noted that **ETF inflows**, a major source of new demand, have slowed materially, while futures markets continue to see pockets of long liquidations. "Crypto markets have exhibited the volatility similar to precious metals but without the upside," analyst Alex Saunders wrote in the Tuesday report.

## Digital Gold Comparison Falters

Bitcoin is often framed as **“digital gold,”** but it has yet to mirror the recent strength seen in precious metals. While gold has rallied amid geopolitical risk and macro uncertainty, BTC has remained under pressure, highlighting its continued sensitivity to liquidity conditions and risk sentiment rather than haven demand.

## Regulatory and Macro Risks Loom

**Regulation** remains the key potential catalyst, Saunders said, but progress on a U.S. digital asset market structure bill has been slow and uneven. While Senate negotiations continue, delays and mixed political support have dampened sentiment, with market-implied odds of passage slipping.

The analyst also pointed to **macro risks**, including concerns over a shrinking Federal Reserve balance sheet, which historically weighs on crypto through reduced bank liquidity. While concerns of a prolonged crypto winter are rising, Citi said that remains a tail risk rather than its base case.

## Approaching Decisive Levels

With average ETF holders now underwater and bitcoin nearing the roughly **$70,000** it held before the U.S. presidential election, the report said markets are approaching levels that could prove decisive for near-term direction.

The cryptocurrency is trading below key ETF cost levels and nearing its pre-election price floor as inflows to these vehicles fade and headwinds build, the bank said.

Bitcoin at Critical Juncture: Nearing Pre-Election Floor as ETF Demand Fades, Citi Warns

## Bitcoin's Sharp Decline

Bitcoin has taken a significant hit, **falling below the $73,000 mark** on Tuesday, reaching its lowest price in nearly 16 months. The world's oldest cryptocurrency sank as low as **$72,884.38**, dropping more than **6%** in a single day. This marks its lowest level since **November 6, 2024**, when Bitcoin traded at $68,898.

![Bitcoin price chart](https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108235234-1764690993224-gettyimages-2247341381-AFP_84UC93G.jpeg?v=1770145577&w=1858&h=1045&vtcrop=y)

*Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images*

## Market Context and Performance

Bitcoin has now fallen **16% year-to-date** as investors continue to rotate out of risk-on assets. This selling pressure comes amid **mounting geopolitical concerns** and uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic data, which has been delayed due to a partial government shutdown.

## Related Market Movements

The broader cryptocurrency market has felt the impact of Bitcoin's decline. **MicroStrategy**, a prominent Bitcoin treasury firm, saw its stock price drop **9%** following the digital asset's pullback. This correlation highlights how traditional market players with significant Bitcoin exposure are affected by cryptocurrency volatility.

## Technical Analysis Perspective

From a technical standpoint, breaking below the $73,000 level represents a **significant psychological barrier** for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency now faces the challenge of finding support at lower levels, with traders watching closely to see if this decline represents a temporary correction or the beginning of a more sustained downtrend.

## Investor Sentiment Shift

The current market environment reflects a **shift in investor sentiment** away from risk assets. With geopolitical tensions rising and economic uncertainty persisting, many investors are opting for safer havens, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies and other high-risk investments.

Bitcoin fell below $73,000 on Tuesday as investors sold the asset to hedge against heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainties. 

Bitcoin Plunges Below $73,000: Is This the Start of a Major Correction?

## Good Morning, Asia: Crypto Markets Enter the Year of the Horse

Crypto markets are entering the **"Year of the Horse"** looking less like a victory parade and more like a racehorse at the starting gate—muscles tense after a long stumble. The **ETH versus BTC chart** is drawing particular attention because it's beginning to resemble the same stride pattern seen before the last major crypto bull run.

> The last time Gold topped, the following happened:
> - $ETH bottomed 9 months prior.
> - $ETH crashed by 30-40%.
> This time:
> - $ETH bottomed 9 months prior
> - $ETH is down 31% already.
> What happened after that?
> A rise of 300%+ against #Bitcoin for Ethereum and the bull market…

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 1, 2026

### The Year of the Horse Metaphor

The **Year of the Horse** metaphor is less about destiny and more about tempo. Horse years in market folklore are associated with speed, abrupt directional changes, and momentum that builds quickly once it starts. Applied to crypto, this translates into an expectation of **sharper swings, faster capital rotation**, and the possibility that leadership shifts away from pure bitcoin dominance toward higher beta assets if liquidity conditions stabilize.

### Why the ETH vs. BTC Chart Is Getting Noticed

The reason the **ETH versus BTC chart** is getting noticed is because of a sequence that occurred once before and now appears to be repeating. In the last major cycle, **ETH bottomed against bitcoin roughly 9 months before gold reached its peak**, then suffered another brutal 30%-40% relative decline that convinced many the trade was broken. Instead, that final stumble marked the bottom. As gold cooled and defensive positioning unwound, capital rotated back into higher beta crypto, sending **Ethereum more than 300% higher against bitcoin** and helping ignite the broader bull market.

Today, the structure looks familiar rather than identical. The **ETH-to-BTC chart hit a relative low about 9 months before gold’s recent high** and is already down around 31%, putting it in the same historical drawdown range that preceded a violent reversal up.

### Market Sentiment and Analysis

**QCP** said traders are still buying protection against further downside, but not with the same urgency seen during last year’s sharp selloff, suggesting caution rather than outright panic. At the same time, **J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s Yuxuan Tang** wrote in an email note that gold’s longer-term fundamentals remain intact despite recent pullbacks, arguing that central bank and institutional demand continue to provide a structural floor.

That push-and-pull between resilient safe-haven demand and washed-out crypto positioning is what gives the **ETH-BTC ratio its intrigue**. In Horse-year terms, the market is not yet sprinting, but it may no longer be limping. However, the ratio is more a gauge of temperament than a prediction, suggesting that if liquidity steadies and bitcoin's dominance loosens, capital rotation could accelerate quickly. **Horses do not usually walk when they finally move. They gallop.**

And that gallop, at least according to prediction markets, looks more like a run-up from current levels, not to a new record high. [Kalshi bettors](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcmaxy/how-high-will-bitcoin-get-this-year/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31) say bitcoin will get to 105K in 2026, while on Polymarket, [punters assign](https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-all-time-high-by) only a 29% chance it breaks the magic number of $126,000.

### Market Movement

**BTC:** Bitcoin is trading near **$78,800** as a brief liquidation-driven rebound runs into thin support above $70,000, leaving markets focused on the $60,000 to $65,000 long-term holder and 200-week average zone as the next major floor unless U.S. equities roll over.

**ETH:** Ethereum is trading near **$2,345** after a short rebound from weekend selling, but with steeper weekly losses than bitcoin and weaker structural support, markets remain cautious that price could continue drifting lower unless broader risk appetite improves.

**Gold:** Gold is trading near **$4,830** as prices attempt to stabilize after a margin-driven selloff, but elevated volatility and a firmer dollar are keeping the rebound fragile rather than signaling a clean return to the prior uptrend.

**Nikkei 225:** The Nikkei 225 rose about **2.4%** to lead gains across Asia as optimism over a new U.S.–India trade deal lifted regional risk sentiment, with South Korea’s Kospi surging over 5% and broader markets tracking a rebound in U.S. equities despite ongoing volatility in gold, silver and crypto.

### Elsewhere in Crypto

- CZ pushes back against Binance 'FUD' as blame game for crypto crash persists ([CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/02/02/cz-pushes-back-against-binance-fud-as-blame-game-for-crypto-crash-persists))
- Jeffrey Epstein Was an Early Investor in Coinbase, Emails Reveal ([Decrypt](https://decrypt.co/356620/jeffrey-epstein-early-investor-coinbase-emails-reveal))

Crypto could be getting ready to gallop as the year of the horse sets up a fresh run higher across ETH, BTC, and other digital assets.

Ethereum's Brutal Stumble Mirrors Last Bull Run Start: Is a 300% Surge Against Bitcoin Imminent?

![A vacuum cleaner sucks up dollar bills](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F227184c4680bb091ec78d48c2ad307be0a2232df-1920x1080.jpg%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=3840&q=75)

*(Unsplash modified by CoinDesk)*

A real-time tracker of U.S. inflation is offering good news to crypto bulls as bearish forecasts continue to roll in.

The **Truflation index**, an independent, real-time blockchain-based tracker of daily changes in the consumer price index (CPI), has dropped below 1% for the first time since at least early 2021. The index has fallen from 2.67% since mid-December, taking it well below the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.

So while the official government reading stays 700 basis points above the Fed's target, the real-time level is showing fast disinflation, a scenario that supports the case for quick-fire interest-rate cuts by the bank.

That's good news for liquidity-sensitive assets such as **bitcoin (BTC)**, especially since the cryptocurrency is now trading 38% below the record $126,000 price from early October. The Truflation reading also contrasts forecasts of inflation resurgence by some analysts.

"As measured by Truflation, consumer price inflation has dropped to 0.86% on a year-over-year basis, breaking significantly below the 2-3% range in place for the past two years. In our view, inflation could turn negative, contrary to BlackRock and PIMCO forecasts," Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, said on X.

The good news doesn't stop there. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who correctly warned of a worsening fiscal situation for Japan last year, predicted President Donald's Trump's pick for Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, could cut rates by 100 basis points this year.

Let's see if these things offer relief to the crypto market. As of publication time, BTC is trading little changed around $78,000, with smaller tokens showing some recovery, as evidenced by the 2% gain in the CoinDesk 80 Index over 24 hours. Hyperliquid's HYPE and POL stand out as the only top-100 tokens with gains in excess of 10%.

Analysts remain optimistic about long-term prospects.

"In the near term, positioning in crypto does remain fragile. But structurally, ongoing institutional adoption, expanding use of stablecoins for cross-border settlement, and the rise of tokenized real-world assets should improve crypto market depth and interoperability," Emir Ibrahim, an analyst at digital asset trading firm Zerocap, told CoinDesk in an email.

"Over time, these dynamics are expected to reinforce Bitcoin's debasement hedge characteristics, even if the market is not yet fully pricing that narrative today," Ibrahim added.

In traditional markets, both the dollar index and Treasury yields are buoyant in the wake of Monday's strong manufacturing data. Stay alert!

## What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

- **Crypto**
  - Feb. 3: Ondo Finance (ONDO) to share an update of its roadmap at the Ondo Summit.
  - Feb. 3: CHZ to share its Chiliz Vision 2030 roadmap.
- **Macro**
  - Feb. 3 U.S. JOLTs data delayed over partial U.S. government shutdown.
- **Earnings** (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  - Feb. 3: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, -$0.95
  - Feb. 3: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.29

## Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

- **Governance votes & calls**
  - Feb. 3: Lido to host a community call on the Lido V3 mainnet launch.
  - Feb. 3: Axie Infinity to host a Lunacian Lounge.
- **Unlocks**
  - No major unlocks.
- **Token Launches**
  - Feb. 3: Conflux (CFX) to be listed on Kraken.
  - Feb. 3: Usualx’s unlock window closes.

## Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

- Day 3 of 4: Web Summit Qatar (Doha, Qatar)
- Feb. 3: Ondo Summit (New York)

## Market Movements

- BTC is down 0.1% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $78,400.52 (24hrs: +0.9%)
- ETH is down 2.03% at $2,292.99 (24hrs: +0.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.94% at at 2,278.33 (24hrs: +0.55%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 3%
- BTC funding rate is at 0% (0.0372% annualized) on Binance

![CD20, Feb. 3 2026 (CoinDesk)](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F0f5c0aac62610c8823f9fb1037cd6e23124031c5-1400x400.png%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=3840&q=75)

- DXY is unchanged at 97.58
- Gold futures are up 6.13% at $4,938.00
- Silver futures are up 11.81% at $86.10
- Nikkei 225 closed up 3.92% at 54,720.66
- Hang Seng closed up 0.22% at 26,834.77
- FTSE is down 0.05% at 10,336.54
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.56% at 6,041.35
- DJIA closed on Monday up 1.05% at 49,407.66
- S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,976.44
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.56% at 23,592.11
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.82% at 32,183.88
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.91% at 3,656.11
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.2 bps at 4.289%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at 7,016.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.51% at 25,981.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 49,522.00

## Bitcoin Stats

- BTC Dominance: 60.08% (0.18%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02919 (-2.09%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 870 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $35.10
- Total fees: 3.42 BTC / $266,100
- CME Futures Open Interest: 113,495 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.8 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 5.22%

## Technical Analysis

![SOL's weekly price swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2Fbbfcab263a06f1e8fd40356c3b514a6088bdba91-2854x1404.png%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=3840&q=75)

*(SOL's price chart. (TradingView))*

- The chart shows **solana (SOL)** price swings in candlestick format since 2022.
- Prices dropped to support at $95.16 identified by the horizontal line connecting the low hit in April last year.
- If this support breaks, Solana faces little backing until the mid-$30s. Bulls, therefore, need to hold $95.16 to avoid a deeper crash.

## Crypto Equities

- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $187.86 (-3.53%), +0.90% at $189.55 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $58.86 (-7.93%), +1.95% at $60.01
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.44 (-6.44%), +1.06% at $26.70
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $28.77 (-4.74%), +2.57% at $29.51
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.12 (-4.00%), +0.77% at $9.19
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.32 (-0.97%), +1.31% at $15.52
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.87 (-0.67%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.04 (-6.76%), +1.36% at $11.19
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $44.44 (-1.38%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $11.18 (-14.59%), -0.63% at $11.11

**Crypto Treasury Companies**

- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.63 (-6.73%), +1.12% at $141.19
- Strive (ASST): closed at $0.72 (-11.94%), +2.32% at $0.74
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.79 (-12.27%), +0.77% at $7.85
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.62 (-8.99%), +2.47% at $1.66
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (-5.79%)

## ETF Flows

**Spot BTC ETFs**

- Daily net flows: $561.8 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.55 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.28 million

**Spot ETH ETFs**

- Daily net flows: -$2.9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.9 million

Source: Farside Investors

## While You Were Sleeping

- **Bitcoin ETFs see cash rush as traders hunt bargains** (CoinDesk): Investors poured cash into the U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs on Monday with total net inflow of $561.8 million, the largest single day of buying since Jan. 14.
- **SpaceX, xAI Tie Up, Forming $1.25 Trillion Company** (The Wall Street Journal): Elon Musk said SpaceX acquired xAI, a deal that combines his rocket-and-satellite business with his artificial-intelligence startup that is facing steep competition.
- **Gold rallies with silver as historic rout lures back dip buyers** (Bloomberg): Gold and silver rebounded after a historic collapse from all-time highs. Spot gold was up by 6.2% to near $4,950 an ounce. Silver rose more than 10% to top $87.
- **India to ramp up purchases of US oil, arms, aircraft; open some farm access** (Reuters): India agreed to buy oil, defense goods and aircraft from the U.S., as President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India slashing tariffs to 18% from 50% in exchange for halting Russian oil purchases.

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