Thomas Fahrer, CEO of Apollo, predicts Bitcoin could reach $300,000-$500,000 within four years due to several low-probability events, including Bitcoin surpassing gold's market cap and the U.S. dollar being backed by Bitcoin. He believes the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has contributed to his growing X following, as he shares insights on ETF inflows and outflows. While Fahrer acknowledges the market's volatility, he enjoys sharing both positive and negative news. For technical analysis, he trusts James Check of Glassnode, while Fred Krueger provides valuable insights on Bitcoin ETFs and the power law. Fahrer also runs a newsletter with his brother, tracking corporations purchasing Bitcoin. He expects spot Ether ETFs to experience strong initial inflow but faces the 'staking issue', where investors miss out on staking rewards by holding Ether through the ETFs. Despite this, Fahrer anticipates strong interest in Ethereum ETF coverage.

<p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://s3.magazine.cointelegraph.com/magazine/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Crypto-Twitter-Hall-of-Flame-Thomas-Fahrer-scaled.jpg"></p><p>Thomas Fahrer says multiple “low-probability” events could push Bitcoin into a “strong bull market.”</p>

Bitcoin Could Hit $500K, But Spot Ether ETFs Face Staking Issue: Thomas Fahrer

## The $31 Million Super PAC Blitz

National special-interest groups, now including **deep-pocketed cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence interests**, have spent tens of millions of dollars to influence four hotly contested Democratic congressional primaries in the Chicago area.

Through Thursday, super PACs whose donors are hard to track had reported spending more than **$31.4 million**, including more than **$6.1 million** for attack ads that are swamping voters ahead of Tuesday’s primaries.

The portions from the **crypto, AI and pro-Israel groups total $26.9 million**, a WBEZ review of federal campaign disclosures has found.

## Unprecedented Spending Levels

This super PAC spending is far more than the last time the Chicago area had U.S. House primary races without an incumbent. In 2022, U.S. Rep. Jonathan Jackson’s campaign saw more than $1.1 million in super PAC support, while U.S. Rep. Delia Ramirez’s bid got a $1.5 million boost.

This election cycle, a handful of congressional candidates are seeing **quadruple those amounts** go toward their individual runs, with most of that super PAC money coming from a pro-Israel group and the **trillion-dollar cryptocurrency and AI industries**.

“There’s nothing wrong with interest groups getting involved in politics,” said Alisa Kaplan, executive director of Reform for Illinois, which tracks campaign money. “But when some groups can drown out everyone else because of their **bottomless pockets… it distorts democracy**.”

## Cryptocurrency's Political Play

In the 7th Congressional District, retiring U.S. Rep. Danny Davis has endorsed state Rep. La Shawn Ford. But Ford has faced attack ads about a federal bank fraud case against him. The ads are part of a **$2.5 million anti-Ford barrage by FairShake**, a super PAC linked to cryptocurrency interests. The group, formed in 2023, tries to **limit regulations on that financial sector**.

Ford last year helped pass legislation to regulate digital asset exchanges — a measure opposed by some cryptocurrency groups. Ford told WBEZ he sent FairShake a cease-and-desist letter, which has not been answered.

“I would expect there to be some dirty politics. I didn’t expect there to be lies about my [legal] record,” Ford said. “They’ve been lying, saying I was convicted of bank fraud.”

FairShake has also spent more than **$817,000 on negative ads** in the 2nd District, which covers part of the South Side and some nearby suburbs. The ads attack state Sen. Robert Peters, a leading candidate to replace U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly.

“Crypto is not well-liked, particularly in the working-class Black community,” Peters said. “They have so much money they could **flood the zone with misinformation** to try to convince the voters that the [U.S. Sen.] Bernie Sanders-backed candidate is somehow beholden to corporations.”

## AI's Political Influence

Unlike FairShake, a group aligned with AI interests has yet to go negative.

The group, Think Big, has pumped more than **$1.1 million into digital ads and phone messages** for former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean’s bid for the 8th District. Her website describes AI as a “powerful tool,” but she did not respond to WBEZ about the contributions.

It also gave Peters’ opponent, Jesse Jackson Jr., a nearly **$1.4 million boost** for his comeback campaign.

## Pro-Israel Groups Dominate Spending

The bulk of the super PAC expenditures in the four U.S. House primaries are linked to the **American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)**, a national lobbying organization that opposes strict human-rights conditions on U.S. military aid to Israel.

As of Thursday, **AIPAC-tied committees had disclosed spending more than $20.5 million** to promote the group’s favorite candidates or attack rivals.

That’s on top of millions of dollars from individuals — most outside Illinois — that AIPAC channeled to the congressional campaigns of Bean, state Sen. Laura Fine and Cook County Board member Donna Miller.

The largest beneficiary of AIPAC-linked spending is Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, running in the 7th District. One super PAC has spent **nearly $5 million on her behalf**.

Next is Fine, who is among 15 candidates competing in the 9th District. AIPAC-linked committees have not only spent nearly **$4.4 million promoting Fine’s candidacy**, they’ve bankrolled more than **$2.6 million in attacks** on her best-financed opponents, Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss and content creator Kat Abughazaleh.

A Fine statement to WBEZ calls a suggestion that outside spending would influence her policy positions “laughable.”

Together with pro-Israel funds, the tech money is swamping Democratic rivals in the Chicago area and, according to one government watchdog, distorting democracy.

Crypto & AI Giants Pour $31M into Chicago Primaries: How Tech Money is Reshaping Democracy

Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 are two of the most popular choices for long-term growth investments. One has delivered an average annual return of about 10% over the past century, while the other has created millionaires but also experienced dramatic volatility, with drops of 50% or more multiple times.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around **$70,000**, down 47% from its October 2025 high. The S&P 500 is near **5,500**, remaining relatively flat in 2026 due to factors like tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Both assets are at critical junctures, and their performance over the next four years could vary significantly based on economic conditions.

If you have **$10,000** to invest today and plan to hold until 2030, here’s what historical data and analyst projections suggest you might end up with.

## Historical Returns: $10,000 in Bitcoin vs S&P 500 Over 5 Years

![Golden bitcoin coin on green stock chart graphs cryptography background](https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/shutterstock-2001081914-huge-licensed-scaled.jpg)

Comparing these two assets involves looking at actual returns over the past five years. The S&P 500 has shown consistency regardless of entry point, while Bitcoin’s outcomes vary widely based on timing.

- **S&P 500**: Investing $10,000 in March 2021, when the index was around 3,950, would be worth roughly **$13,900** today, a 39% return over five years (about 7% annually). This steady growth comes with minimal volatility, never dropping more than 25%.
- **Bitcoin**: Investing $10,000 in March 2021 at $58,000 would be worth about **$12,000** today, a 20% gain—underperforming the S&P 500. However, buying in March 2023 at $25,000 would turn $10,000 into **$28,000** (a 180% return in three years). Catching the post-FTX bottom near $16,500 in late 2022 could have grown $10,000 to over **$42,000**.

From March 2024 to today, Bitcoin has slightly declined, while the S&P 500 returned about 7%. The key takeaway: the S&P 500 offers predictable outcomes with long-term holds, whereas Bitcoin can outperform by 5x or underperform entirely, depending on whether you buy during a crash or near a peak.

## Projections: $10,000 in the S&P 500 by 2030

![Red Bitcoin Candlestick Chart with US Dollar bills in the Background, crypto market crash. Stock Market collapse and Exchange volatility. Bitcoin Price Evolution. Financial risk, panic and devaluation](https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/shutterstock-2644820037-huge-licensed-scaled.jpg)

The S&P 500 has averaged about **10% annually since 1957** and closer to **15.6% over the past decade**. Future returns are uncertain, but historical ranges provide a reasonable estimate:

- At **8% annual growth**, $10,000 grows to roughly **$13,600** by 2030.
- At the long-term average of **10%**, it becomes about **$14,600**.
- With a strong stretch like the past decade at **14%**, it could reach **$16,900**.

While these scenarios don’t double your money, they offer stability. The S&P 500 has only had negative annual returns in six of the last thirty years. As Warren Buffett advocates, a low-cost S&P 500 index fund is a reliable investment for most people, requiring minimal effort and no timing worries.

## Projections: $10,000 in Bitcoin by 2030

![Bitcoin and bitcoin chart. Cryptocurrency trading. Bitcoin graphic. Bitcoin mining. Finance management on pc concept. Money trading. Digital trade. Profit and loss graph. Online trading via internet.](https://247wallst.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/shutterstock-2059487036-huge-licensed-scaled.jpg)

Bitcoin’s potential outcomes by 2030 are far wider than the S&P 500’s. Analyst projections range from **$150,000** to over **$1 million**, each painting a different picture for a $10,000 investment:

- At **$150,000** (aligned with Standard Chartered’s moderate forecast), Bitcoin roughly doubles from $70,000, turning $10,000 into about **$21,400**.
- At **$300,000 to $500,000** (based on Ark Invest’s balanced forecast), $10,000 becomes **$42,800 to $71,400**.
- At **$1 million** (as targeted by Cathie Wood and others), $10,000 could be worth roughly **$142,800**.

These numbers are compelling compared to the S&P 500’s $14,600. However, Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, dropping **50% or more four times since 2017**. The 2022 crash from $69,000 to $15,700 wiped out 77% of its value, and the current drawdown from $126,000 to $70,000 is already at 47%. If prices drop further to $41,000, as some projections suggest, a $10,000 investment could temporarily fall to **$5,800** before any recovery. The upside is massive, but it requires enduring potential halving of your investment along the way.

## Bitcoin or S&P 500: Which $10,000 Investment Makes More Sense in 2026?

From today’s perspective, Bitcoin offers greater potential upside, while the S&P 500 provides a steadier ride. The choice depends on your investor profile:

- **Bitcoin**: At $70,000, Bitcoin is **47% below its all-time high**, with institutional access through ETFs now available. Even conservative projections suggest doubling by 2030. However, you must be prepared to hold through potential drops, such as to $41,000, without selling.
- **S&P 500**: Investing $10,000 in an index fund offers quiet compounding with a century-long track record. It won’t deliver 5x returns but provides steady growth without the stress of volatility.

If you seek steady growth, the S&P 500 is hard to beat. If you’re willing to stomach swings for a chance at significantly higher returns, Bitcoin at $70,000 presents a better risk-reward opportunity over the next four years.

$10,000 in Bitcoin today could be worth $21,000 to $140,000 by 2030. The same in the S&P 500 would likely grow to $13,600-$17,000.

Bitcoin vs S&P 500: Which $10,000 Investment Could Make You Rich by 2030?

## SBF's Political Strategy Backfires

Ever since Donald Trump took office and declared himself a **"pro-crypto president,"** FTX's disgraced founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, has been working to convince the administration that he's a Republican now.

The former Democratic megadonor apparently hopes that a right-wing pivot might help him escape a **25-year prison sentence** ordered after Joe Biden's Department of Justice proved he stole more than **$8 billion from customers** of his cryptocurrency exchange.

These days, Bankman-Fried frequently praises Trump's policies and quotes his Truth Social posts on X, where his bio confirms that posts are: **"SBF's words. Posted through a proxy."** He also regularly rants against Democrats, including Biden officials who, he claimed in a motion for a new trial, intimidated FTX employees into lying on the stand or refusing to testify in order to take down Bankman-Fried as a political foe.

However, Trump has yet to signal that he's considering pardoning Bankman-Fried in light of this new fealty, despite similar pardons for other crypto figures like Binance founder **Changpeng "CZ" Zhao** and Silk Road founder **Ross Ulbricht**. Quite the opposite. Just last month, the White House told Fortune that **"Trump has no intention of pardoning Bankman-Fried."**

## DOJ Slams SBF's "Incoherent" Claims

On the back of that disappointment, Trump's DOJ has now confirmed that it's also not falling for Bankman-Fried's MAGA makeover. In a motion urging the court to deny Bankman-Fried's request for a new trial, an attorney for the government, Sean Buckley, slammed the FTX founder for his **"incoherent" attempt to claim "political victimhood."**

Pointing out that Bankman-Fried was **"one of the largest donors to President Biden's 2020 presidential campaign,"** Buckley alleged that Bankman-Fried's abrupt party-swapping was **"a political strategy the defendant pre-planned and committed to in writing before he was convicted, and one he is now executing from prison in an insincere attempt to obtain leniency."**

Bankman-Fried's plan to reinvent himself as a Republican, Buckley noted, was detailed in a Google Document that the court reviewed before convicting Bankman-Fried in 2024.

Buckley said the document showed how, **"in the aftermath of FTX's collapse,"** Bankman-Fried **"mapped out a rehabilitation and pardon campaign."** Attached to an email from Bankman-Fried's account, the Google Doc was marked **"confidential"** and started with a note that emphasized that **"these are all random probably bad ideas that aren't vetted."**

However, many of the ideas were executed as planned, Buckley wrote. For example, Bankman-Fried planned to **"come out as Republican"** in an interview with Tucker Carlson, which happened.

**"In March 2025, the defendant gave an interview to Tucker Carlson in which he portrayed himself as a disaffected Democrat who had become sympathetic to Republicans before his arrest"** and **"suggested his political reorientation contributed to his prosecution,"** Buckley wrote.

Bankman-Fried also, in his document, considered using X to **"come out against the woke agenda"** and push the narrative that he had hidden Republican donations, which also happened.

**"That checklist is being executed with near-perfect fidelity,"** Buckley alleged. However, the plan isn't working, and Bankman-Fried's X posts aren't causing Trump officials to warm to him, he said. **"Evidence, not politics, drove the Government's prosecution of the defendant,"** Buckley insisted.

**"Contrary to his claim that he has been targeted for his politics, the public record establishes unambiguously that the defendant was a major, publicly identified financial supporter of Democratic causes,"** Buckley wrote. Later, he emphasized, **"The motion's suggestion that he was somehow prosecuted because of his party affiliation inverts the factual reality: he was a major donor, not a political adversary."**

## DOJ Rejects SBF's Math, as X Users Troll SBF

Ars could not immediately reach Bankman-Fried for comment. It seems that the FTX founder has dropped his lawyers and plans to defend himself, at least at this stage. Last month, his lawyer mother, Barbara Fried, submitted his pro se motion for the new trial, which Bankman-Fried signed from the federal corrections facility where he is being held in California.

According to Bankman-Fried, he deserves a new trial not only because the government supposedly threatened his colleagues to push an allegedly fake narrative, but also because it was **"false" to say he'd stolen from FTX customers.**

Those who were harmed have since been repaid between 119 and 143 percent of the value of their lost cryptocurrency holdings, Bankman-Fried claimed.

The DOJ clearly found this argument more offensive than Bankman-Fried's posturing as a Republican. Likening Bankman-Fried to a **"bank robber"** who wants to be acquitted because stolen funds were eventually recovered, Buckley singled out that argument as Bankman-Fried's most aggressively misleading claim.

It's **"factually wrong"** to claim that FTX customers have been made whole, Buckley said, since no one got their cryptocurrency back.

Receiving the cash value for crypto holdings at the time of FTX's collapse is not the same as returning cryptocurrencies that, if held today, would be much higher in value, Buckley noted. For example, **Bitcoin was trading at approximately $16,871 when FTX went bankrupt, but now it's trading above $70,000.**

Depending on which tokens customers were holding, the actual reality is that FTX customers only received **"between approximately 10 and 50 percent of the value of the assets they deposited,"** Buckley argued. Also, Bankman-Fried appears not to have considered any of FTX's customers who couldn't wait for bankruptcy proceedings before selling billions of claims **"on the secondary market at steep discounts."**

**"Those customers received neither the nominal 119–143 percent nor anything approaching the actual value of the cryptocurrency they deposited,"** Buckley wrote.

Further, Bankman-Fried cannot rely on a multi-year recovery effort to repay FTX customers to excuse his crimes, Buckley argued, while noting elsewhere that Bankman-Fried's arguments in his motion continue his **"history of lying about the reason for FTX's shortfall."**

**"A defendant who misappropriates property and whose victim is later compensated from unrelated sources has nonetheless committed the underlying offense,"** Buckley wrote.

Reminding the court that the evidence against Bankman-Fried was **"overwhelming,"** Buckley urged the court to deny his bid for a new trial in its entirety.

A grand jury unanimously convicted Bankman-Fried after only five hours of deliberation, Buckley emphasized. And Bankman-Fried offered **"no credible reason"** to believe that **"any prosecutorial decision—from the first grand jury subpoena to the last argument at the trial—was influenced by politics, that any evidentiary ruling reflected political motivation, or that the conduct of the trial deviated in any respect from the ordinary adversarial process."**

**"The notion he was targeted for his Democratic politics by the prior presidential administration is fanciful,"** Buckley wrote.

On X, Bankman-Fried seems to also be struggling to sell himself as a Republican to the platform's right-leaning users. Top comments on his recent posts are full of memes and haters mocking Bankman-Fried's failed comeback.

On one post praising a Trump health care policy that had nothing to do with cryptocurrency, X users even appeared to arbitrarily add a community note to remind anyone who saw the post that **"Sam Bankman-Fried is currently serving a 25 year prison sentence after being convicted in November 2023 on 7 counts of fraud and conspiracy. He misappropriated billions in FTX customer deposits."**

SBF is still twisting facts to hide FTX crypto losses, DOJ says to block new trial.

SBF's Desperate MAGA Makeover Fails: Trump's DOJ Rejects FTX Founder's Political Pivot

## Bitcoin's Tight Trading Range

Bitcoin has been **trapped in a tight trading range** between $69,000 and $71,700 for the past 48 hours, trading recently around $70,100. This comes despite continued conflict in the Middle East that pushed oil back toward $100 per barrel after a sixth ship was reportedly attacked by Iran on the Strait of Hormuz.

![Rising open interest hints at bearish bets](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F29d96f9e4250c835d84de02f4cd58e9d9093063e-1920x1080.jpg%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=3840&q=75)

*Rising open interest hints at bearish bets (Sean Benesh on Unsplash/Modified by CoinDesk)*

## Derivatives Positioning Tells a Bearish Story

Crypto futures **open interest (OI) has increased by 2% to $102 billion** in the past 24 hours, with bitcoin and ether OI rising by 2% and 4% respectively. However, the real story lies in the details:

- **Annualized perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume delta (CVD) have remained flat to negative**
- This suggests the recent build-up in open interest is being driven more by **defensive, bearish positioning** than by aggressive long-side bets
- On Deribit, bitcoin and ether **put options continue to trade at a premium to call options**, with notable interest in the $20,000 put option
- Bitcoin and ether's 30-day implied volatility indices (BVIV and EVIV) remain steady despite renewed overnight rally in oil

## Altcoins Show Relative Strength

While bitcoin remains range-bound, **altcoins are showing relative strength** despite a risk-off environment in global markets:

- Decentralized finance (DeFi) token **SKY posted a 7.6% gain** over the past 24 hours
- AI-focused **bittensor (TAO) is up by around 4.5%**
- Hyperliquid's **HYPE token gained 9%** in 24 hours, extending its recent bull run
- The altcoin-heavy **CoinDesk 80 (CD80) Index added 2.5%** while the bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 5 (CD5) is up by only 0.9%

One exception has been midnight (NIGHT), which dropped 10% after Tuesday's Binance listing gave holders an off-ramp to sell.

## Market Context and Outlook

U.S. stock futures continued to show weakness with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures both losing around 0.6% overnight. The Dollar Index (DXY) moved back toward 100 after Wednesday's CPI figures, putting a stop to any potential rate cuts.

The altcoin market's next move depends on whether **bitcoin can break out of the current range with a move above $74,000**. A breakout on convincing volume followed by consolidation would likely lead to rotation into more speculative altcoins.

Activity in tether gold (XAUT) continues to cool, with futures OI slipping to the lowest since Feb. 28, showing that gold-linked assets are slowly falling out of favor as the rally in spot gold stalls.

Bitcoin traded around $69,800 as open interest rose to $102 billion, suggesting defensive, bearish bets while altcoins outperformed in a risk-off macro backdrop.

Bitcoin Could Hit $500K, But Spot Ether ETFs Face Staking Issue: Thomas Fahrer

Summary:

Thomas Fahrer, CEO of Apollo, predicts Bitcoin could reach $300,000-$500,000 within four years.

He identifies several low-probability events that could drive this surge, including Bitcoin overtaking gold's market cap and the U.S. dollar being backed by Bitcoin.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has boosted Fahrer's X following, as he shares insights on ETF inflows and outflows.

Fahrer expects spot Ether ETFs to experience strong initial inflow, but highlights the 'staking issue' where investors miss out on staking rewards by holding Ether through the ETFs.

He believes this could affect the popularity of Ether ETFs compared to Bitcoin ETFs.

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