Thomas Fahrer, CEO of Apollo, predicts Bitcoin could reach $300,000-$500,000 within four years due to several low-probability events, including Bitcoin surpassing gold's market cap and the U.S. dollar being backed by Bitcoin. He believes the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has contributed to his growing X following, as he shares insights on ETF inflows and outflows. While Fahrer acknowledges the market's volatility, he enjoys sharing both positive and negative news. For technical analysis, he trusts James Check of Glassnode, while Fred Krueger provides valuable insights on Bitcoin ETFs and the power law. Fahrer also runs a newsletter with his brother, tracking corporations purchasing Bitcoin. He expects spot Ether ETFs to experience strong initial inflow but faces the 'staking issue', where investors miss out on staking rewards by holding Ether through the ETFs. Despite this, Fahrer anticipates strong interest in Ethereum ETF coverage.

<p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://s3.magazine.cointelegraph.com/magazine/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Crypto-Twitter-Hall-of-Flame-Thomas-Fahrer-scaled.jpg"></p><p>Thomas Fahrer says multiple “low-probability” events could push Bitcoin into a “strong bull market.”</p>

Bitcoin Could Hit $500K, But Spot Ether ETFs Face Staking Issue: Thomas Fahrer

## Federal Reserve Decision: What Crypto Traders Need to Know

The **Federal Reserve** is almost certain to cut interest rates on Wednesday, with traders predicting a **97.8% chance of a 25-basis point cut**. However, the real game-changer for **Bitcoin** and crypto markets might be the potential end of **quantitative tightening (QT)**.

### Understanding Quantitative Tightening and Its Impact

**Quantitative tightening** occurs when the Fed reduces the money supply by letting its bond holdings shrink—effectively pulling cash out of circulation to cool the economy and fight inflation. This is the opposite of **quantitative easing (QE)**, where the Fed pumps money into the system by buying bonds.

Dr. Andre Dragosh, head of research in Europe for Bitwise, told Decrypt that ending QT could create a **"tailwind" for Bitcoin** by signaling a higher tolerance for inflation. **Bank of America** and **JP Morgan** have already indicated they expect the Fed to end QT soon, with Fed Chair Powell's recent statements supporting this likelihood.

### Current Market Conditions

At the time of writing, **Bitcoin** was trading flat around **$114,850**, having lost 0.1% in the past 24 hours. **Ethereum** fell slightly by 2.2% but remained above **$4,100**, up 2.7% from a week ago. Analysts believe investors have already priced in the rate cut, which historically supports crypto and other **risk-on assets**.

### Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy

Dragosh emphasized that "the end of QT would certainly send a clear signal for higher inflation tolerations—closer to 3% over the medium term." He noted that past announcements of easier monetary policy, such as **QE1, QE2, and Operation Twist**, have led to significant increases in inflation expectations.

Prediction markets reflect this sentiment: Myriad users see a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut, while the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 97.8% probability, with an 89% chance of another cut in December.

### Bullish Outlook for Crypto

"Rate cuts add fuel to the already accelerating liquidity growth in the U.S. and globally," Dragosh said. "We are most likely looking at an extension of the current **bull market** well into 2026 and no imminent cycle top." He added that a relaxation in U.S.-China trade tensions could further strengthen this view, with gold's sell-off indicating a potential **risk-on scenario** that supports Bitcoin and crypto assets.

### Trader Caution and Risk Management

Jonathan Rose, CEO of BlockTrust IRA, cautioned traders against overcommitting. "In September, the market might have overestimated policy easing, leading to crowded positioning," he said. "We should go against the crowd, expecting a reversal if the market initially reacts positively to the rumor but then sells the fact."

Rose highlighted the importance of monitoring the **$111,000 to $115,000 range** for Bitcoin, as this area could be a starting point or a point of failure. "With high leverage involved, **risk management** is super important," he stressed. "If the Fed's message changes, we could quickly close positions."

### Additional Context: Bitcoin Leverage and Fed Vote

Bitcoin traders are building leveraged positions nearing **$40 billion** ahead of the Fed meeting, anticipating further cuts this year. The decision has become a focal point for investors expecting a quarter-point cut to bolster **risk assets**, including crypto.

### Key Factors to Watch

- **U.S.-China trade relations**: Uncertainty persists until Presidents Trump and Xi meet on Thursday.
- **Fed messaging**: Any deviation from expected policy could trigger rapid position closures.
- **Inflation tolerance signals**: Ending QT would indicate a shift toward higher inflation acceptance, benefiting Bitcoin.

Fed rate cut almost certain Wednesday—but ending QT could be the real Bitcoin catalyst as inflation tolerance rises.

Fed Rate Cut Looms: Could This Be Bitcoin's Next Big Catalyst?

## The Head of Firefox on AI in Browsers

Do you need an assistant for your online activities? **Multiple major players in artificial intelligence** are moving on from chatbots like ChatGPT and are now focusing their efforts on new browsers with deep AI integrations. Those could take the form of an agent that shops for you or an omnipresent chatbot that follows you around and summarizes what you’re seeing, looks up related stuff, or answers related questions.

Last week alone, **OpenAI released the ChatGPT Atlas browser**, and Microsoft showed off Edge’s new Copilot Mode, both of which heavily feature chatbots. At the start of October, Perplexity made its Comet browser free. In mid-September, Google rolled out Chrome With Gemini, integrating its AI assistant with the most popular browser in the world.

In the wake of these releases, I phoned the general manager of Firefox, Anthony Enzor-DeMeo, for his thoughts on whether AI-first browsers will catch on, if his own browser will go full AI, and whether users maintain any expectation of privacy in this new era of personalized, agentic browsing.

**[Read my Q&A with the head of Firefox.](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/28/firefox-ai-internet-anthony-enzor-demeo)**

## AI’s Presence Grows in Art and Our Everyday Lives

- **[‘I’m suddenly so angry!’ My strange, unnerving week with an AI ‘friend’](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/22/im-suddenly-so-angry-my-strange-unnerving-week-with-an-ai-friend)**
- **[US student handcuffed after AI system apparently mistook bag of chips for gun](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/24/baltimore-student-ai-gun-detection-system-doritos)**
- **[AI can help authors beat writer’s block, says Bloomsbury chief](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/27/ai-authors-writers-block-bloomsbury-chief-book-publisher-shares)**
- **[Labor rules out giving tech giants free rein to mine copyright content to train AI](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/27/labor-rules-out-giving-tech-giants-free-rein-to-mine-copyright-content-to-train-ai)**

## SF’s Tech Billionaires Tell Trump to Call Off the National Guard on Their Home Turf

![A rally outside San Francisco city hall.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d7a5b6cff67302af7b634b2cb0300e041bc710a2/500_0_5000_4000/master/5000.jpg?width=445&dpr=1&s=none&crop=none)

Last week, **Donald Trump said he would not deploy the US national guard to San Francisco** after proclaiming he would for weeks. What exempts SF from federal occupation but not Washington DC, Chicago, or Los Angeles? The presence of tech billionaire donors, going by Trump’s Truth Social Post.

“Great people like Jensen Huang, Marc Benioff, and others have called saying that the future of San Francisco is great. They want to give it a ‘shot.’ Therefore, we will not surge San Francisco on Saturday,” Trump wrote Thursday, referring to the threatened “surge” of national guard troops.

**Read more: [Trump says tech chiefs convinced him to call off troop ‘surge’ to San Francisco](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/23/trump-san-francisco-troops-silicon-valley)**

The Illinois governor, who has protested against the deployment of the national guard to Chicago for weeks, is also a billionaire. He is also an avowed Democrat and no friend of Trump. One can surmise why his phone calls to the White House didn’t have the same result as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang’s did.

Huang has traveled with the president to the United Arab Emirates to announce a gargantuan AI deal, agreed to pay the US government 15% of his company’s revenue from chip sales in China, and donated to Trump’s inauguration.

Marc Benioff has been at the center of the controversy from the start The co-founder and CEO of Salesforce said in a controversial interview with the New York Times that Trump should make good on his threat and send in the troops. That was at the start of Salesforce’s major yearly conference, Dreamforce, which takes over downtown San Francisco like a homecoming reunion takes over a college town in the US. A few days of backlash later, Benioff walked back the remarks and rationalized them by saying he was only worried about conference security. Then he intervened with Trump to prevent the national guard’s deployment. The image that emerges is a billionaire who wants to have his cake (be close to Trump) and eat it too (seem a savior to San Francisco).

The tech billionaires are getting what they paid for when donating to Trump, a direct line and an exemption for their home turf from his capricious use of force.

Around the same time Huang and Benioff were gabbing with Trump on the phone, the East Wing of the White House met the business end of a backhoe. Backing that demolition is a coalition of tech companies and billionaires gifting hundreds millions of dollars to Trump for his grand ballroom project. What special treatment will they request after paying for a direct line to the president?

## Read More About Trump and Tech

- **[Donors for Trump’s $300m White House ballroom include Google, Apple and Palantir](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/23/trump-white-house-ballroom-donors)**
- **[Trump pardons founder of Binance, world’s largest crypto exchange](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/23/binance-trump-pardon-changpeng-zhao)**
- **[Melania Trump’s meme coin architects accused of pump-and-dump fraud in lawsuit](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/23/melania-trump-cryptocurrency-lawsuit)**
- **[US and China reach ‘final deal’ on TikTok sale, treasury secretary says](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/26/us-china-tiktok-deal-scott-bessent)**

## What Caused Last Week’s Disastrous Amazon Web Services Outage?

![Cables of computer](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e7a010d65d53ecec5a1305edb4536d90af2d67c4/500_0_5000_4000/master/5000.jpg?width=445&dpr=1&s=none&crop=none)

Put succinctly, it was a bug in a piece of automation software. My colleague Josh Taylor reports on the cloud computing blackout that took everything from Signal to smart beds offline:

In a lengthy outline of the cause of the outage, Amazon revealed a cascading set of events that brought down thousands of sites and applications that host their services with the company.

AWS said customers were unable to connect to DynamoDB, an AWS database service that maintains hundreds of thousands of domain name system (DNS) records. It uses automation to monitor the system to ensure that records are updated frequently. The root cause of the issue, Amazon said, was an empty DNS record for the Virginia-based US-East-1 datacentre region. The bug failed to automatically repair and required manual operator intervention to correct.

**Read more: [Could the internet go offline? Inside the fragile system holding the modern world together](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/26/internet-infrastructure-fragile-system-holding-modern-world-together)**

## How to Decide If You Need a New Apple Product

- **[iPhone 17 review: the Apple smartphone to get this year](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/22/iphone-17-review-the-apple-smartphone-to-get-this-year)**
- **[Apple Watch Ultra 3 review: the biggest and best smartwatch for an iPhone](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/27/apple-watch-ultra-3-review-the-biggest-and-best-smartwatch-for-an-iphone)**

## Face-Scanning Is Creeping into Dating Around the World

![A close-up of dating apps on a phone.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/a64b051e4c0571b59c7d640c2c098b94c22021e0/732_0_4203_3363/master/4203.jpg?width=445&dpr=1&s=none&crop=none)

**Tinder made a face-scan a requirement for new users in the US last week.** Match Group, the app’s parent company, had already mandated facial verification when signing up in California.

The US requirement made headlines in the largely US-based tech press, but Match Group also rolled out its voluntary face check feature in Australia, Canada, and India. In each of those markets, Tinder ranks among the most popular dating apps.

Match, which also owns Hinge and a slew of dating websites, plans to roll out the face-scanning feature to its other dating apps soon, paving the way for facial verification to become a near-universal requisite for online dating.

Any pretense of anonymity on Tinder is gone. The change poses substantial questions of privacy but also promises significant safety benefits. If Tinder is hacked, facial scans can’t be changed like passwords. Biometric personal data is immutable. Or will law enforcement enjoin Match to hand over users’ faces en masse? On the other side of the coin, serial rapists have been able to use Tinder as a hunting ground, seemingly unhindered by the app’s safety features. Victims’ families have blamed Match for failing to verify users.

A face scan might have been a shocking requirement for a signup in 2012, when Tinder debuted. Apple’s Face ID didn’t launch until 2017, although Samsung phones featured facial recognition features as far back as 2011. Users’ expectations of privacy and their willingness to trade it for new, more personalized features evolve over time, as Firefox’s Enzor-DeMeo said.

**Read more: [Rape under wraps: how Tinder, Hinge and their corporate owner chose profits over safety](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/13/tinder-hinge-match-investigation)**

## The Wider TechScape

- **[More than a million people every week show suicidal intent when chatting with ChatGPT, OpenAI estimates](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/27/chatgpt-suicide-self-harm-openai)**
- **[Amazon plans to cut 30,000 corporate jobs in response to pandemic overhiring](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/27/amazon-corporate-jobs-cuts)**
- **[Amazon strategised about keeping its datacentres’ full water use secret, leaked document shows](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/25/amazon-datacentres-water-use-disclosure)**
- **[Ultra-HD televisions not noticeably better for typical viewer, scientists say](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/27/ultra-hd-televisions-4k-8k-not-noticeably-better-study)**
- **[‘People thought I was a communist doing this as a non-profit’: is Wikipedia’s Jimmy Wales the last decent tech baron?](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/27/people-thought-i-was-a-communist-doing-this-as-a-non-profit-is-wikipedias-jimmy-wales-the-last-decent-tech-baron)**
- **[Tesla reports steep drop in profits despite US rush to buy electric vehicles](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/22/tesla-earnings-report-latest-drop-profits)**
- **[Google hails breakthrough as quantum computer surpasses ability of supercomputers](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/22/google-hails-breakthrough-as-quantum-computer-surpasses-ability-of-supercomputers)**

In this week’s newsletter: Silicon Valley billionaires have a hotline to the US president. Plus, the head of Firefox talks AI-integrated browsers, and more

Is Firefox Going Full AI? Tech Billionaires Influence Trump and AI Takes Over Browsers

## ETHZilla's Strategic Treasury Move

ETHZilla Corporation (Nasdaq: ETHZ), a technology firm bridging **traditional finance** and **decentralized finance (DeFi)**, has announced the sale of approximately **$40 million** worth of its **ETH** treasury holdings. The proceeds are earmarked for **share repurchases** under its existing $250 million stock buyback program.

### Share Repurchase Details
Since executing the sale on **October 24, 2025**, the company has repurchased around **600,000 shares** for about **$12 million**. ETHZilla plans to continue using the remaining funds from the ETH sale for additional repurchases and intends to keep selling ETH to buy back shares until the **discount to Net Asset Value (NAV)** is normalized.

### CEO's Statement
McAndrew Rudisill, Chairman and CEO of ETHZilla, stated, "We are leveraging the strength of our balance sheet, including reducing our **ETH holdings**, to execute share repurchases. We expect these repurchases to be immediately accretive, using cash raised through the sale of our **ETH**, while our common shares trade at a significant discount to NAV. By opportunistically repurchasing shares while our stock is trading below NAV, we plan to reduce the number of shares available for stock loan/borrow activity, while increasing the **NAV per share** of the Company."

### Remaining ETH Holdings
ETHZilla continues to hold approximately **$400 million** of **ETH** on its balance sheet to support future strategic initiatives.

### About ETHZilla
ETHZilla Corporation operates in the **DeFi** industry, focusing on connecting financial institutions, businesses, and organizations worldwide through secure, accessible **blockchain transactions** via **Ethereum Network** protocol implementations. The company generates recurring revenues through various **DeFi protocols** that enhance **Ethereum network integrity and security**. ETHZilla aims to bring traditional assets on-chain via **tokenization** and offers services including **DeFi protocol integration**, **blockchain analytics**, and **traditional-to-digital asset conversion gateways**.

### Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the benefits of the stock repurchase program, digital asset treasury strategy, and future performance. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, such as fluctuations in **ETH** prices, regulatory changes, and market conditions. Investors are advised to review the company's SEC filings for detailed risk factors.

### Media and Investor Contact
John Kristoff, SVP of Corporate Communications and IR, can be reached at IR@ethzilla.com.

/PRNewswire/ -- ETHZilla Corporation (Nasdaq: ETHZ)("ETHZilla" or the "Company"), a technology company connecting traditional finance and decentralized...

ETHZilla Sells $40 Million in ETH to Buy Back Shares at a Discount

## Bitcoin's Calm Recovery Above $114K

Bitcoin's recent rise to **$114,000** reflects a measured reset rather than a breakout. On-chain data from **Glassnode** reveals that since mid-October, approximately **62,000 BTC** have moved out of long-term inactive wallets, marking the first notable decline in illiquid supply this cycle.

This shift signals that some long-held coins are returning to more liquid hands, softening one of this cycle's strongest tailwinds.

### Whale Accumulation and Market Dynamics

**Whales** have been quietly absorbing this flow. Wallets holding large balances have added to their positions over the past 30 days and haven't meaningfully sold since October 15. In contrast, smaller holders (0.1 to 10 BTC) have been steady sellers since late 2024, resulting in a **redistribution phase** where weaker hands trim risk and larger holders accumulate.

In derivatives, leverage has stayed balanced. **Hyperliquid leaderboard data** show about **$4.1 billion** in open interest split almost evenly between longs and shorts, with a slight tilt toward the latter. **Coinglass** tracked around **$413 million** in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with **$337 million** being shorts—a moderate flush, not a full short squeeze.

Together, these dynamics explain the calm recovery in Bitcoin's price. The move from **$110K to $114.9K** was driven by a mix of **mild short covering** and **steady spot absorption** rather than momentum chasing. The market now sits in a neutral zone: illiquid supply is easing, whales are holding, and leverage is balanced.

For now, Bitcoin is likely to oscillate between **$113K and $116K** until the next catalyst emerges.

## Market Movement

- **BTC**: Bitcoin's rise reflects a modest recovery powered by **whale accumulation** and **mild short covering**, not broad-based demand signaling a new uptrend.
- **ETH**: Ether climbed to **$4,186**, up about **6%** over 24 hours, outperforming Bitcoin as traders rotated into higher-beta assets. However, on-chain and derivatives data suggest the move remains largely **momentum-driven** rather than backed by strong new inflows.
- **Gold**: **JPMorgan expects gold to climb** to **$5,055** an ounce by late 2026 and **$6,000** by 2028, driven by Fed rate cuts, stagflation fears, and rising demand from central banks and investors diversifying away from the dollar.
- **Nikkei 225**: Japan's Nikkei 225 surged past **50,000** for the first time amid optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and hopes for domestic demand expansion.

## Elsewhere in Crypto

- Betting Scandals Are Rocking Sports. Will Prediction Markets Help or Hurt?
- Could China ‘militarise’ cryptocurrencies to beat financial sanctions?
- Tether Eyes Fresh Investments to Push USAT Stablecoin to 100M Americans at December Launch

On-chain data shows roughly 62,000 BTC have moved out of long-term storage since mid-October, softening one of this cycle’s strongest tailwinds. But steady whale accumulation and a moderate short-side cleanup helped prices stabilize near $114K.


Bitcoin Could Hit $500K, But Spot Ether ETFs Face Staking Issue: Thomas Fahrer

Summary:

Thomas Fahrer, CEO of Apollo, predicts Bitcoin could reach $300,000-$500,000 within four years.

He identifies several low-probability events that could drive this surge, including Bitcoin overtaking gold's market cap and the U.S. dollar being backed by Bitcoin.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has boosted Fahrer's X following, as he shares insights on ETF inflows and outflows.

Fahrer expects spot Ether ETFs to experience strong initial inflow, but highlights the 'staking issue' where investors miss out on staking rewards by holding Ether through the ETFs.

He believes this could affect the popularity of Ether ETFs compared to Bitcoin ETFs.

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Fed Rate Cut Looms: Could This Be Bitcoin's Next Big Catalyst?

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