Bitcoin's Shallowest Bear Market: 50% Drop from ATH, But Analysts Warn Bottom Isn't In

Bitcoin's price action has been down-only in June, dropping double-digits as capital continues to exit ETFs amid escalating geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions.

Still, the leading crypto is down 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, making it the shallowest bear market in Bitcoin's history.

In 2012, the bear market drawdown exceeded 90%. Since then, this number has been declining, reaching 82% for the next two cycles and 74% in the 2022 cycle. Compared to this cycle’s 50%, the drawdowns are getting shallower with time.

“Bitcoin is now a more institutionalized macro asset, supported by ETFs, deeper liquidity, and a larger base of long-term allocators,” Jeff Ko, chief analyst at crypto exchange CoinEx, told Decrypt. “That is why drawdowns have been compressing across cycles, and I do not expect another 80% drawdown in the current cycle.”

"The holder composition of Bitcoin this cycle is very different from what we’ve seen in previous cycles,” Martin Lee, content & market insights lead at DWF Labs, told Decrypt. “We have the presence of institutions and corporations putting Bitcoin on their balance sheet. We do expect drawdowns to be more shallow and general volatility to be more muted as we’ve seen over the last 2 years.”

Why Bitcoin hasn’t bottomed

Despite a 50% drawdown representing a “meaningful reset,” Ko does not believe that the bear market is over. Instead, the CoinEx analyst said investors should pay attention to “ETF outflows, macro tightening, and liquidity rotation.” That will help determine how prolonged a bear market can be.

Alex Tsepaev, Chief Strategy Officer of B2PRIME Group, echoed Ko’s take, suggesting that the bear market is far from over. “The current picture is bearish due to the combination of a chain of ETF outflows, macro pressure, and on-chain stress caused by both.”

“Since May 18, there has been only one day of inflows, on June 4, which shows how weak the passive bid has become,” Tsepaev highlighted.

Identifying a Bitcoin bottom

Both Ko and Tsepaev collectively highlighted $60,000 as the first key psychological level that matters, with a bearish scenario involving a retest of the $55,000 and $45,000 levels.

Wintermute has a similar bearish take, suggesting that the $62,000 support has come undone after Bitcoin's recent drop. "Bitcoin never spent meaningful time in the $50,000 to $59,000 range on the way up in 2024, so there are no real technical levels here. That leaves flow as the thing setting direction," the market-making firm said.

Reflecting this, users on prediction market Myriad have assigned a 72% chance that Bitcoin’s next move could push it down to $55,000. That number has increased from 39% on June 1, underscoring the shift in sentiment favoring bears.

Ko highlighted a potential de-escalation of the geopolitical outlook as a critical catalyst that could help form a bottom for Bitcoin. A de-escalation could lift the energy and risk-off overhang, opening the door to a dovish Fed turn, or at least a signal that further hikes are off the table. Increasing ETF demand is the second catalyst highlighted by Ko.

On the altcoin front, the DWF analyst noted how Hyperliquid’s HYPE has diverged from the broader market trend. That is a “potential sign” of protocols being valued individually, based on their own merits, instead of being at the mercy of Bitcoin’s performance.

“Not every token will recover, and that’s simply a function of how markets are, assets get priced according to their merits over time—the same thing happens in equities,” Lee said.