Is a US Recession Looming? Insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Growing Recession Risks in the US

Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently addressed the increasing risk of a hypothetical recession in the United States during a press conference following the latest meeting of the financial regulator's governing committee. He noted that while the risk is growing, it is still far from a high level.

"There is always an unconditional probability of recession. We do not make such predictions. If you look at external forecasts, experts have generally raised the likelihood of a recession slightly. However, it remains at a relatively moderate level, around the normal range. It was extremely low. Just two months ago, people were saying that the probability of a recession was extremely low," Powell stated.

Interest Rate Decisions

When asked about the potential increase in the base interest rate in May, Powell emphasized, "I think we will not rush. As I have said, we have every opportunity to wait for further clarity. We will not hurry." He reiterated that the uncertainty in the American economy is extraordinarily high and pointed to a slowdown in consumer spending growth.