Is Bitcoin Stuck? Exploring the Longest Flat Market in Halving History

Bitcoin is currently experiencing its longest period of sideways trading during a halving year, struggling to initiate a significant parabolic upward movement in what is expected to be an accelerated post-halving bull run.

Key Insights

• According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin has only seen a maximum of 298 days before rising significantly.
• The highest return index during a halving year was in 2020, with 4.05 points, while 2016 saw the lowest at 2.26 points.
• Despite this year being the second-best performing year, 2012 had the strongest start after 298 days, achieving a 2.06 points return index.

Longest Re-Accumulation Range of All Time

This year marks a significant milestone as Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the halving for the first time in its 15-year history. Historically, Bitcoin has hit new all-time highs about 240 days after a halving event; however, this year, the price peaked at $73,737.94 on March 14, accelerating the post-halving bull run by 260 days.

Multiple corrections since the halving have reduced this acceleration rate to 60 days. RektCapital, an analyst and trader, noted that Bitcoin is showing signs of attempting to reduce this acceleration period. The historical “re-accumulation period”, where prices trade sideways before a significant upward movement, has already been the longest since 2016.

As of October 11, Bitcoin has been trading sideways for 176 days. Rekt Capital anticipates that this sideways trading could persist for another two months, potentially extending the re-accumulation range to 236 days, making it the longest during a halving year.