Renowned quant analyst PlanB, known for the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, is predicting a Bitcoin (BTC) bounce based on on-chain data. He highlights the realized price metric, which currently sits at around $65,000.  PlanB expects BTC to **bounce from this level**, as it has historically served as a support line in bull markets.  He also points to the **Relative Strength Index (RSI)**, a momentum indicator, which he believes will reach peak levels similar to previous cycles, indicating potential for **exponential returns**.  This suggests that PlanB remains bullish on Bitcoin's future. 

Closely followed quant analyst PlanB believes that Bitcoin (BTC) is gearing up for a big bounce based on key indicators.

PlanB Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Bounce: On-Chain Signals Bullish?

## Indiana Lawmaker Advocates for Inclusive Crypto Legislation

Indiana State Representative Kyle Pierce is pushing for cryptocurrency legislation that doesn't play favorites. In a recent interview, the Republican lawmaker emphasized that his proposed bill is intentionally broad to avoid "choosing winners and losers" in the digital asset space.

### Broad Approach to Crypto Regulation

Pierce's legislation, introduced earlier this month, focuses on Indiana's treatment of cryptocurrency with a principle of inclusivity. **"My goal is to promote the cryptocurrency market, not Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, or whatever it may be,"** Pierce told Decrypt.

Unlike some state-level crypto bills that include market-cap thresholds (like New Hampshire's $500 billion requirement that only Bitcoin currently meets), Pierce's bill doesn't set such limitations. While he acknowledged that not all cryptocurrencies might be suitable for retirement investments, he believes legislation should support the broader ecosystem.

### Key Provisions of the Bill

The proposed legislation includes several important components:

- **Allowing public retirement and savings programs to invest in cryptocurrency ETFs**
- **Establishing protections for crypto users and firms**
- **Preventing Indiana from targeting cryptocurrency miners** with negative government actions

### Protecting Crypto Miners

Pierce's bill specifically addresses cryptocurrency mining operations, which consume significant energy to secure networks like Bitcoin. **"They will not get special treatment, but we're also making sure you won't be able to pinpoint them and try to focus negative government actions against them,"** he explained.

This protection extends to all miners, despite the energy consumption differences between proof-of-work networks like Bitcoin and more energy-efficient proof-of-stake networks like Ethereum.

### Changing Political Landscape

The lawmaker noted that the political environment for crypto legislation has improved significantly since President Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law in July. **"I think that there's a lot more trust,"** Pierce said, adding that while he doesn't want to assume his bill will pass, there hasn't been major opposition yet.

Pierce has consulted with various industry groups during the bill's development, including the Satoshi Action Fund, which accepts Bitcoin donations and claims to have helped pass crypto policy in eight states.

<iframe src="https://decrypt.co/videos/interviews/gdJ2yV4f/the-us-lawmaker-trying-make-crypto-mainstream-in-the-usa" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

### Looking Forward

As conversations about cryptocurrency continue with constituents, including a miner located just 10 minutes from his district's borders, Pierce remains optimistic about creating legislation that supports the entire digital asset ecosystem rather than favoring specific cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin may be the first digital asset, but it shouldn’t be the only one affected by legislation, Indiana State Rep. Kyle Pierce told Decrypt.

Indiana Lawmaker's Crypto Bill: Why Bitcoin Shouldn't Be the Only Winner in Legislation

It has been a remarkably eventful year for the crypto sector. Crypto prices rocketed higher after Donald Trump's presidential election victory in November 2024, largely due to the prospect of an incoming pro-crypto administration. Yet while the Trump administration has issued many favorable executive orders and Congress has also passed substantial cryptocurrency legislation, the rally has fizzled out due to an array of macroeconomic concerns.

**Bitcoin** (CRYPTO: BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency, is now down about 10% this year (as of Dec. 18), while **XRP** (CRYPTO: XRP) is down more than 21% this year. Which is the better buy?

![Person looking at computer in dimly lit room.](https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F846494%2Fperson-computer-3.jpg&w=700)

Image source: Getty Images.

## Bitcoin: The Digital Debasement Trade

Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency created by the unidentified programmer Satoshi Nakamoto, has long led the sector and often served as a bellwether for the industry. Bitcoin continues to operate on the proof-of-work consensus mechanism, which many major networks have moved away from due to the significant amount of energy consumed and the inefficiency of the system in processing transactions.

However, this hasn't stopped Bitcoin from leading the pack, largely due to a growing thesis that Bitcoin and its 21 million finite coin supply can serve as a form of **digital gold** and therefore as a hedge against **inflation**. Bitcoin is also benefiting from what's known as the **debasement trade**. Many investors are increasingly concerned that the U.S. government's growing pile of debt, the **fiscal deficit**, and the Federal Reserve's constant printing of money will essentially make the dollar worth significantly less over time, which is why assets like gold have done so well.

Now, many still question this thesis because Bitcoin often trades like a tech stock and has struggled since October, while also starting to deviate from gold. The token has fallen by more than 30% from its record high in October. However, Bitcoin has survived so many declines like this in its short life that many investors still have high confidence.

Additionally, the **regulatory environment** for crypto has improved markedly under Trump, whether you consider the creation of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the implementation of Bitcoin-friendly regulators and advisors, and Congressional legislation intended to clear up regulatory gray areas.

## XRP: A Potential Player in International Payments

XRP, now the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by **market cap**, has benefited immensely from the new administration. Trump installed new regulatory leaders, particularly at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which led the agency to drop a major lawsuit against Ripple, the company behind XRP, as well as its co-founders.

XRP operates on a robust technical network capable of processing 1,500 transactions per second (TPS), making it a potential player in the global payments market. Ripple has also built an interesting ecosystem that attempts to bridge the gap between traditional banks, investors, and the crypto world. The company's solutions span instant payments, custody of digital assets, stablecoins, and a multi-asset prime brokerage.

The advantage for institutions in the payment sector is that they can send instant payments abroad, leveraging XRP, the network, and Ripple's stablecoin, **RLUSD**, with tremendous flexibility. This allows for conversions between various fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies at low cost. XRP also enables **on-demand liquidity**, which means banks don't need to pre-fund foreign accounts, providing financial institutions with better flexibility in terms of their own capital and liquidity.

Ripple already has several traditional bank customers. The bigger question is, can it truly capture a meaningful share of international payments amid the competition from other cryptocurrencies and traditional solutions?

## Which Is the Better Buy?

Both Bitcoin and XRP have immense potential, in my opinion, so I think a smaller, more speculative position in both coins is at least warranted. However, I ultimately prefer Bitcoin to XRP. Although the digital gold narrative cannot be fully confirmed at this time, I believe Bitcoin can offer a unique form of diversification that few assets can provide.

Furthermore, Bitcoin's total market cap is still only a fraction of gold's, so it's not being given the full weight of the digital gold argument. Bitcoin's resilience after extreme sell-offs also gives me added confidence in the token's long-term staying power.

Key PointsBitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, had been on a monster run, at one point topping $126,000 per token.

Bitcoin vs. XRP: Which Crypto Is the Smarter Investment in Today's Market?

A debate on X over seemingly conflicting bitcoin forecasts from Fundstrat analysts drew a response from Tom Lee, highlighting differing mandates and time horizons.

**A debate on X over whether Fundstrat analysts are sending mixed signals on bitcoin intensified over the weekend**, prompting a response from the firm’s co-founder that appeared to endorse a more nuanced explanation of the differing views.

The discussion began after an X user known as “Heisenberg” (@Mr_Derivatives) shared screenshots that he said showed contrasting outlooks from Fundstrat’s leadership. One highlighted comment attributed to Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, outlines a base case in which bitcoin could retrace toward the **$60,000–$65,000 range in the first half of 2026**. Another pointed to Lee’s recent public comments suggesting bitcoin could make **new all-time highs, potentially as soon as early 2026**.

The juxtaposition quickly gained traction on X, with users questioning whether Fundstrat was contradicting itself or offering unclear guidance to clients.

That framing drew a detailed response from another X user, “Cassian” (@ConvexDispatch), who [said](https://x.com/ConvexDispatch/status/2002438848953851993?s=20) he was a Fundstrat client and argued the debate was misleading. Cassian wrote that the firm’s senior figures operate with **different mandates rather than a single unified forecast**, distinguishing between long-term macro views, portfolio-level risk management and technical analysis.

According to the post, Farrell’s comments reflect a **defensive positioning framework focused on drawdown risk, flows and cost bases**, rather than a long-term bearish thesis on bitcoin. Cassian said Farrell had reduced crypto exposure within Fundstrat’s model portfolio as a risk-management decision, while remaining constructive on longer-term adoption trends beyond early 2026.

Lee’s role, by contrast, was described as more focused on **macro liquidity cycles and structural shifts in markets**, including the idea that institutional adoption and exchange-traded products are changing bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle dynamics. Technical analyst Mark Newton was also cited as operating independently, with views based strictly on chart structure rather than macro narratives.

Lee, who is also the chief investment officer at asset management firm Fundstrat Capital and the executive chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), appeared to acknowledge that explanation by [responding](https://x.com/fundstrat/status/2002466430890225737?s=20), “Well stated,” to Cassian’s post on X, a move likely to be widely interpreted by market participants as a **tacit agreement with the characterization**.

While neither Lee nor Farrell has issued a formal public statement addressing the screenshots directly, Lee’s response suggested that the **differing outlooks are not mutually exclusive**.

At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading around **$88,283**, up about 0.5% over the past 24 hours, while the broader crypto market was up by the same amount.

Tom Lee weighed in after X users questioned whether Fundstrat analysts were contradicting each other on bitcoin, pointing to differences in role, timing and risk management.

Tom Lee Clarifies Fundstrat's Bitcoin Forecasts: Are Analysts Contradicting Each Other?

It's become fashionable of late to dismiss **Bitcoin's four-year cycle** — and the inevitable boom and bust it brings — as an anachronism.

Just in the past week, **Bitwise's Matt Hougan** and **ARK Invest's Cathie Wood** have thrown their considerable weight behind the idea of dismissing the four-year cycle. Each noted the **ETFs** along with regulatory and institutional acceptance that have blended bitcoin into the traditional financial system. Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset and there's no reason for it to follow the same pattern today as it did years ago.

### Defining the Cycle

The four-year cycle is a price pattern linked to **Bitcoin's halving events**, which occur roughly every four years. These halvings reduce by 50% the amount of bitcoin rewarded for mining one block. The 50% cut is thought to lead to a **supply shock** and forcing a major run higher in price.

Following the big bull move comes a crash in the 80% area and then a steady grind higher into the next halving event.

Chart squigglers like to point to the bull runs (and subsequent crashes) that occurred following the 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings, and say things are playing out the same for the 2024 event: the sharp run higher which eventually topped out in October 2025 above **$125,000**, and then the bear market — which is where the market finds itself now.

### Fidelity's Timmer Weighs In

An early believer in bitcoin among the traditional finance crowd, **Jurrien Timmer**, asset management giant Fidelity's director of global macro, isn't seeing anything in his charts that says the four-year cycle is dead.

"If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125,000 after 145 [weeks] of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect," [Timmer said earlier this week](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/2001706526256566473).

As for what's next, that would be winter. Timmer noted that the subsequent bear markets tend to last about one year. "My sense is that 2026 could be a 'year off' (or 'off year') for bitcoin." Support, he concluded, is in the **$65,000-$75,000** range.

The director of global macro at the asset management giant remains a secular bull on bitcoin, but isn't optimistic about the next year.

Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle: Is 2026 the Year Off? Fidelity Expert Weighs In

During the past two years, cryptocurrency has transformed from a short-term speculative asset into a long-term asset to buy and hold in a well-diversified portfolio. In large part, this is due to the recent launch of **exchange-traded funds (ETFs)** for major cryptocurrencies.

With that in mind, here are three cryptocurrencies that you can buy and hold for decades.

## Bitcoin

Given that **Bitcoin** accounts for 60% of the total market cap of the crypto market, this is a no-brainer decision. Bitcoin is typically the first crypto added to a portfolio for both retail and institutional investors, and for good reason.

During the past decade, it has been easily one of the top-performing assets in the world. In fact, the crypto has been the top-performing asset in 10 of the past 13 years.

![A person with an orange flag standing on a pile of cash.](https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F847654%2Finvestor-on-top-of-pile-of-money.jpg&w=3840&op=resize)

Image source: Getty Images.

And Bitcoin has done so with style. In fact, its weakest bull market year was 2015, when it only returned 36% to investors. In other years, it has skyrocketed as much as 5,428%. Until this year — which, admittedly, has been a real stinker — the digital token had delivered two straight years of triple-digit percentage returns.

Some institutional investors now refer to it as **digital gold** due to its ability to retain its value over a long period of time. Some hedge fund investors also use it as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risk, the same way they use gold.

So I feel confident holding on to Bitcoin for decades. It is the rare asset that has maximum upside potential, as well as some potential downside protection.

## Ethereum

**Ethereum** ranks second among cryptocurrencies only to Bitcoin in terms of market cap and has a proven track record of success dating from 2015.

What makes Ethereum interesting is that it is a cornerstone for everything that happens within the blockchain and crypto world. In addition to being a digital currency, it is also a **blockchain ecosystem**. As such, it gives investors unprecedented upside potential.

By investing in it, you're gaining exposure to all the other sectors and niches of the blockchain world, especially **decentralized finance (DeFi)**. And this is what makes Ethereum so exciting. It is now the preferred blockchain of Wall Street. As such, it is at the forefront of several major innovations within the financial sector, including **real-world asset (RWA) tokenization**, transforming ownership of stock, bonds, and other assets into tradeable crypto tokens.

An investment in the crypto is really a long-term bet on the future of blockchain technology. Over time, larger swathes of the financial sector will likely run on blockchain technology. By holding on to Ethereum for decades, you will be able to participate in this upside potential.

## USDC

Lastly, there's **USDC**, a **stablecoin** that is pegged 1-to-1 to the value of the U.S. dollar. As long as the U.S. remains one of the top economies in the world, there will be a role to play for USDC.

Decades from now, it should still be in existence. The same cannot be said for other cryptocurrencies, many of which could nose-dive all the way to zero. By contrast, the value of USDC will always be $1, even decades from now.

On the surface, that might sound like a lousy investment. Why buy a digital asset that will always trade for $1? The answer is simple: You can deploy USDC across different blockchains in order to earn a **yield**. Just as you can earn a yield on dollars sitting in your bank account, you can do so on digital dollars sitting on the blockchain.

Right now, this may not be enticing to the average investor. On the **Coinbase Global** cryptocurrency platform, for example, USDC earns a yield of just 3.5%.

But I expect these opportunities to grow over time, thanks to advances in DeFi. Just a few years ago, for example, nobody knew what **yield farming** in crypto was. Now, it's relatively mainstream.

## How to deploy $500 in crypto?

Depending on your risk-reward tolerance, you can construct a portfolio blend that reflects your outlook on blockchain and crypto. Given that Bitcoin currently accounts for 60% of the market cap of the crypto market, a good starting point would be a 60-40 blend of Bitcoin and Ethereum, with any excess funds moved into USDC.

For just $500, it's possible to do exactly that. You could pick up six shares of the **iShares Bitcoin Trust** for about $300, and nine shares of the **iShares Ethereum Trust** for $200. Any remaining funds could then be moved into USDC.

There's no guarantee that Bitcoin and Ethereum will deliver encore performances during the next few decades, just as there's no guarantee that the U.S. economy will remain a global juggernaut. But if I'm buying and holding for decades, I'm moving my money into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC.

These are the 3 cryptos you want in your portfolio for the long haul.

PlanB Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Bounce: On-Chain Signals Bullish?

Summary:

PlanB, known for the S2F model, believes Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a rebound.

He cites the realized price metric, which has historically acted as support in bull markets, currently at $65,000.

PlanB expects a bounce from this level.

He also highlights the Relative Strength Index (RSI), expecting it to reach peak levels like in previous cycles, implying exponential returns.

These indicators suggest a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

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