Trump's Betting Surge: Is He Really the Favorite to Win the Election?

Topline

Former President Donald Trump has surged past Vice President Kamala Harris to become the bookmaker’s favorite for the upcoming presidential election, a shift that Trump is highlighting as a sign of momentum for his campaign.

Key Facts

• According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, Trump now has a 53.2% chance of winning compared to Harris’ 45.8%.
• This marks a significant 5-point surge for Trump in just one week, while Harris has seen a similar drop.
• The most notable boost for Trump’s odds comes from the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, predicting a 55.8% chance for Trump vs. 43.5% for Harris.
• On Kalshi, Trump has a narrower edge at 52% compared to Harris’ 48%.
• For the first time in over two months, Trump leads on PredictIt, with bets at 54 cents per share compared to 51 cents for Harris.
• On British betting site Smarkets, Trump leads 54 to 45.

News Peg

Trump recently shared betting odds from Polymarket on his Truth Social account, echoing past behaviors of showcasing polls that favor him. Additionally, Elon Musk has expressed support for Trump, stating that betting markets are often more accurate than polls since they involve real money. However, some analysts note that the recent boost in Trump’s odds may be influenced by large bets from significant players or “whales” in the betting market.

Surprising Fact

Kalshi and PredictIt only allow U.S. citizens to place bets on election outcomes.

Big Number

2.4% - This is the current lead of Harris over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.

Crucial Quote

Polling analyst Nate Silver remarked, “Sometimes market sentiment has a mind of its own...People assume there must be something there, but usually it’s just a Rich Guy With Opinions.”