Bitcoin has entered a valuation territory historically seen only during the deepest bear markets, and analysts warn the worst may still be ahead.

### **Capitulation Signals Flash Red**

Two widely watched gauges indicate capitulation: Bitcoin is trading near its **200-week moving average**, placing it in the bottom 10% of historical valuation. The **Crypto Fear and Greed Index** has sunk to **9**—deep in 'extreme fear' territory—down from 48 just a month ago.

> "Bear market bottoms are a process, not an event. First, price-sensitive investors capitulate. Then comes the harder phase: months of sideways action that slowly wear down the conviction of those who remain." — @_Checkmatey_

### **Market Snapshot**

Bitcoin briefly broke below **$60,000** for the first time since 2024, currently trading at $62,623. Other major cryptocurrencies also saw modest bounces but remain lower over the week:

- **Ether**: $1,651 (+1.4% daily, -6.5% weekly)
- **BNB**: $595 (+1.3%)
- **Solana**: $65 (+0.9%)
- **Dogecoin**: $0.085 (+1.1%)
- **XRP**: $1.12 (-0.3% daily, -7.5% weekly)

### **Macro Headwinds Intensify**

U.S. inflation came in hot: **CPI rose 0.5% month-over-month** and **4.2% year-over-year**, the fastest annual pace since early 2023, driven by energy costs from the Iran conflict. Core CPI rose only 0.2%, offering a sliver of hope.

Regulatory optimism is fading: Polymarket odds of the **Clarity Act passing in 2026** dropped from 62% to 48% this week. All eyes are now on the **FOMC meeting June 16–17**, where Fed Chair Warsh's tone could determine whether Bitcoin bounces toward $68–72K or breaks below $60K.

### **Global Risk-Off Sentiment**

Equities fell to a one-month low as tech stocks sold off and U.S. forces struck targets in Iran, collapsing the April ceasefire. The ECB is expected to raise rates for the first time since September 2023, adding to global tightening fears.

**Bottom line**: While valuation metrics suggest we're near a bottom, the path to recovery may be long and grinding. Capitulation is just the first step.

Two widely watched gauges show capitulation, but the analyst flagging them warns the slow grind comes next.

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