Bitcoin's most entrenched investors are still cashing out — and the pressure is starting to show.

More than two months after the token hit a record high above $126,000, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% and is struggling to find support. One reason: its long-time holders haven’t stopped selling. New blockchain data shows that coins held for years are being divested at some of the fastest rates in recent memory, just as the market’s ability to absorb them is fading.

## The Exodus of Long-Term Holders

This trend highlights a significant shift in investor behavior. **Long-term holders**, often seen as the backbone of Bitcoin's stability, are now liquidating their positions at an accelerated pace. This exodus is contributing to the ongoing price decline and creating headwinds for recovery.

## Market Impact and Support Levels

With Bitcoin down nearly 30% from its peak, the market is grappling with weakened support. The selling pressure from these seasoned investors is exacerbating the downturn, making it harder for the cryptocurrency to find a solid footing. **Blockchain data** reveals that the rate of divestment is among the highest observed in recent years, signaling a potential change in market sentiment.

## What This Means for Investors

The persistent selling by long-term holders could indicate a lack of confidence in the near-term prospects of Bitcoin. As these coins flood the market, the reduced absorption capacity suggests that demand may not be keeping up with supply. This scenario poses challenges for both short-term traders and long-term believers in the cryptocurrency's future.

Bitcoin’s most entrenched investors are still cashing out — and the pressure is starting to show.

Bitcoin's Silent Exodus: Why Long-Term Holders Are Cashing Out and What It Means for the Market

**CF Benchmarks**, a subsidiary of Kraken, has released a groundbreaking report that positions **bitcoin** as a core component of institutional portfolios, projecting a base-case price of **$1.4 million by 2035**. This analysis shifts the focus from short-term speculation to long-term valuation frameworks, reflecting growing institutional adoption.

### A Portfolio-Based Approach to Bitcoin
Instead of making near-term price calls, CF Benchmarks applies capital market models traditionally used for assets like stocks and bonds. The firm argues that **bitcoin** can be evaluated based on expected returns, volatility, and correlations, similar to traditional investments. This shift is driven by increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity in spot and derivatives markets, and improving regulatory clarity.

The report, titled "Building Bitcoin Capital Market Assumptions: A Practitioner's Framework for Strategic and Tactical Allocations," uses multiple valuation frameworks:
- **Comparative valuation** against other stores of value, such as gold.
- **Production economics** linking market price to mining costs.
- Analysis of **bitcoin's sensitivity** to global liquidity conditions.

Together, these approaches suggest that **bitcoin's value** is supported by its expanding share of the global store-of-value market, its fixed supply schedule, and its responsiveness to monetary conditions. As institutional adoption grows, volatility is expected to decline, while correlations with traditional assets remain low, enhancing diversification potential.

### Long-Term Price Scenarios Through 2035
CF Benchmarks outlines three valuation scenarios for **bitcoin** through 2035, based on different adoption paths:
- **Bear Case**: Bitcoin captures 16% to 33% of gold's market capitalization, leading to a price of about **$637,000** by 2035.
- **Base Case**: Broader institutional adoption with bitcoin reaching roughly one-third of gold's market cap, implying a price of around **$1.42 million** by 2035.
- **Bull Case**: Bitcoin becomes the dominant global store of value, surpassing gold's market cap, with a projected valuation of nearly **$2.95 million** by 2035, driven by accelerated institutional and sovereign adoption.

### Implications for Institutional Portfolios
Beyond price projections, the report highlights that a strategic allocation of **2% to 5% to bitcoin** could significantly improve portfolio efficiency. **Bitcoin's high expected returns**, declining volatility, and low correlations with equities and bonds expand the efficient frontier, allowing for higher returns at comparable or lower risk levels.

CF Benchmarks emphasizes that as regulatory clarity improves, investors are likely to focus more on disciplined allocation, rebalancing, and risk management frameworks, rather than speculative narratives. This positions **bitcoin** as an asset that can be modeled as a long-term portfolio component, with valuation tied to adoption dynamics and macroeconomic conditions.

CF Benchmarks outlines long-term bitcoin valuation scenarios through 2035, including a bear case near $637,000, as institutions apply portfolio models to crypto.

Bitcoin's Stunning $1.4 Million Price Target by 2035: How Institutions Are Redefining Portfolio Strategy

The bitcoin price bounced above $87,000 early Thursday after slipping to a three-week low, despite major support from **MicroStrategy** (MSTR). The bitcoin-holding company has deployed **$1.94 billion** to buy the cryptocurrency over the past two weeks, spending more than it did over the prior three months. MicroStrategy is going full-throttle to avoid a scenario that Chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le have discussed recently, which could see the firm's enterprise value fall below the value of its bitcoin holdings.

Despite MicroStrategy scooping up more than **20,000 bitcoin** in the past two weeks, the bitcoin price hasn't emerged from its slump, failing to rally like gold and silver after last week's Federal Reserve rate cut and relatively dovish outlook. MSTR stock has fared even worse, tumbling more than **9%** on the week through Wednesday's close, the lowest since September 2024.

## MicroStrategy's Key Metric: Bitcoin Per Share

As MSTR stock fails to get traction, MicroStrategy may be running low on fuel to keep buying bitcoin. To understand why, it's important to understand that MicroStrategy's goal in buying bitcoin is to increase the number of bitcoin it holds per share of stock. That's in keeping with the investment case MicroStrategy presents that MSTR stock provides investors with **high-beta exposure to bitcoin**, meaning it can rise faster when the bitcoin price appreciates, though fall faster when it depreciates.

Last week's at-the-market issuance of **4.8 million shares**, which came at an average price of around 184, increased MicroStrategy's shares outstanding by 1.44%. The MSTR stock issuance paid 91% of the price of 10,645 bitcoin, raising MicroStrategy's holdings by 1.59%, so bitcoin per share increased by 0.15%. The increase was due almost entirely to the fact that MicroStrategy paid the rest of the purchase price by issuing **$92 million in preferred stock**.

## MSTR Bitcoin Buying Power Fades

However, now that MSTR stock has fallen to **160.38** as of Wednesday's close, purchases made with its share price at current levels would require a heavier reliance on preferred stock. For example, even if MicroStrategy merely keeps bitcoin-per-share flat, buying another 10,000 bitcoin at the current price near $87,000 would require preferred issuance of more than **$150 million**, or 17% of the total price.

As of Thursday morning, MicroStrategy's enterprise value (which includes stock market valuation, preferred stock and convertible debt minus cash) exceeds the value of its bitcoin holdings by about **9%**. MicroStrategy would lose that premium if MSTR stock fell to around 143, assuming the bitcoin price remained flat. If that happens, buying 10,000 bitcoin without diluting bitcoin per share would require paying more than **25%** of the purchase price with the issuance of about $230 million in preferred stock.

Given that MicroStrategy preferred stock is carrying an average interest rate of **11% to 12%**, and the trend is toward even higher rates, MicroStrategy's interest bill per share could go up noticeably, even if bitcoin per share stays flat.

## MicroStrategy Builds Cash Reserve

As recently as Oct. 30, MicroStrategy said it would only issue more MSTR stock to buy bitcoin when it had a premium to its bitcoin holdings of at least **150%**. But everything changed as MSTR stock dived amid a bitcoin price pullback and investors' growing focus on MicroStrategy's preferred dividend obligations and convertible debt, which might require repayment as early as September 2027 if MSTR stock continues to falter.

Not only did MicroStrategy make an abrupt shift to buying bitcoin primarily by issuing common stock, it also set aside **$1.4 billion in cash** to reassure investors that dividend payments were covered for the next 21 months. The upshot is that MicroStrategy may take its foot off the gas as relates to bitcoin buying to avoid piling up its interest costs if MSTR stock remains in a slump. Essentially, a rising stock price fills up the gas tank, especially if MSTR stock is rising vs. the bitcoin price.

However, pressure could remain on MSTR stock as investors look ahead to **Jan. 15**, the day by which MSCI is due to announce whether MicroStrategy will remain in the MSCI World and USA indexes.

## Bitcoin Price

The bitcoin price fell as low as **$85,418** on Wednesday afternoon, climbing to **$87,160** overnight. The cryptocurrency found support around $85,000 in early December, and so far that support is holding.

The bitcoin price slid as one source of support looks shaky. Strategy bitcoin buys may slow as MSTR stock falls, or else its interest costs may jump. Here's why.

Is MicroStrategy Running Out of Gas? How MSTR's Bitcoin Buying Spree Could Hit a Wall

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering around the **$86,000** mark as weakness in the cryptocurrency market persists, signaling ongoing challenges for investors. This stagnation comes amid a broader trend of **risk aversion** among market participants, who are increasingly cautious in the face of uncertain economic conditions and regulatory developments.

Investors are growing more **risk averse**, shifting their focus away from high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies toward more stable investments. This sentiment is reflected in the sluggish performance of Bitcoin and other digital assets, which have struggled to gain momentum despite occasional rallies.

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As the crypto market navigates this period of weakness, key factors to watch include **market sentiment**, regulatory updates, and macroeconomic indicators that could influence Bitcoin's price trajectory. The current environment underscores the importance of **due diligence** and strategic investment approaches in volatile markets.

Investors are growing more risk averse. 


Bitcoin Stalls at $86,000 Amid Persistent Crypto Weakness: What's Next for Investors?

HashKey Group logo seen on a smartphone and on a pc screen.

Pavlo Gonchar | SOPA Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

HashKey shares rose **3%** on Wednesday as they debuted on the Hong Kong stock exchange, after the crypto exchange raised **$206 million** in its initial public offering, at a time when cryptocurrencies have taken a beating.

HashKey, **Hong Kong's largest licensed crypto exchange**, raised around **1.6 billion Hong Kong dollars** after pricing the IPO at **HK$6.68 per share**, near the higher end of the marketed range of HK$5.95 to HK$6.95.

While mainland China has imposed a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies since 2021, **Hong Kong has been more receptive toward digital assets**.

Key cornerstone investors included **Fidelity, UBS, Chinese investment firm CDH Investments and Cithara Fund** amongst others. JPMorgan and financial services firm Guotai Haitong were among the joint bookrunners.

"Our mission is to make digital assets massively accessible, and what we are doing is to create a compliant platform to connect our users with the digital assets industry," HashKey Chief Financial Officer Eric Zhu told CNBC.

"We are confident that the [crypto] penetration rate in Hong Kong, in the Asian market, is going to catch up with what happens in the U.S," Zhu added.

The listing comes amid recent volatility in global cryptocurrency markets after touching record highs. The world's largest cryptocurrency, **bitcoin, has dropped around 36%** in about a month after hitting an all-time high and crossing past $126,000 in early October. It is down about 6% so far this year.

Established in 2018, HashKey operates a licensed digital asset platform offering exchange trading, over-the-counter services, on-chain services such as staking and tokenisation, as well as asset management solutions for institutional and retail clients.

"This is a milestone for the digital asset and wealth management industry in Asia. We believe Hong Kong is establishing itself as a key hub for regulated digital assets in Asia," said William Ma, CIO at GROW Investment Group.

—CNBC's Emily Tan contributed to this report.

HashKey, Hong Kong's largest licensed crypto exchange, raised around 1.6 billion Hong Kong dollars after pricing the IPO at HK$6.68 per share.

Hong Kong's Largest Crypto Exchange HashKey Makes Lukewarm Market Debut: Shares Gain 3% Amid Crypto Slump

## Key Points
- Both **XRP** and **Dogecoin** have experienced brief periods of rapid price gains during the past decade.
- **XRP** is a **utility coin**, while **Dogecoin** is a **meme coin**.
- **XRP** has emerged as a **best-in-class cryptocurrency**, while **Dogecoin** faces numerous copycat rivals.

There is a popular myth among crypto investors: Find a cryptocurrency trading for mere pennies, invest just a few thousand bucks, and watch that modest up-front investment balloon into $1 million or more within a very short period of time.

With that in mind, two cryptocurrencies that are often positioned as potential millionaire-makers are **XRP** and **Dogecoin**. Both rank among the top 10 cryptocurrencies in the world by market cap, and both have seen brief periods of explosive upside gains during the past few years. But only one of them will potentially make you rich.

## Utility Coins vs. Meme Coins
**Dogecoin** is a **meme coin**, backed by nothing more than buzz, hype, and speculation. The coin itself was created as a joke more than a decade ago, and has no tangible value.

In contrast, **XRP** is a **utility coin**, backed by **real-world use cases**. XRP is commonly referred to as the banker's coin, given its use within the banking system. The primary use for XRP is as a **bridge currency for cross-border payments**. At least a dozen different banks and financial institutions use XRP blockchain technology to facilitate faster, cheaper, and easier cross-border payments.

Over the long haul, investors will be better served investing in utility coins rather than meme coins. The more use cases for a cryptocurrency, the higher its implied future value should be. So based on this criterion alone, the clear winner is **XRP**.

## Future Upside Potential
Another key consideration is future upside potential. Put bluntly, which coin can soar higher and make you richer?

![Investor thinking about a bag of cash.](https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F846501%2Finvestor-thinking-of-cash.jpg&w=700)

Here, too, **XRP** appears to have the clear advantage. While the all-time high for XRP is a rather disappointing $3.84, it's easy to find price targets of $10 or higher. For example, earlier this year, **Standard Chartered** predicted that XRP would hit a price of $12.50 by the end of 2028.

By way of comparison, **Dogecoin** has never, ever traded higher than $0.74 -- and that was more than 4 1/2 years ago! Dogecoin is down a whopping 82% since then, and shows no signs of turning things around anytime soon. Even Elon Musk's creation of a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) earlier this year did little or nothing to reverse investor sentiment around Dogecoin.

## Invest in a Best-in-Class Cryptocurrency
Part of Dogecoin's problem is that the meme coin market is saturated. There are literally thousands of different meme coins, and dozens of different dog-themed meme coins. Dogecoin, once unique, is now being drowned in a sea of copycat meme coins.

In contrast, **XRP** has relatively few direct competitors. Although every Layer-1 blockchain network is theoretically capable of sending cross-border payments quickly and cheaply, not all of them have been embraced by Wall Street or the mainstream banking community.

**Ripple**, the company behind the XRP coin, has invested in world-class technology and created the types of banking relationships that take years to develop. For that reason, XRP is clearly a **best-in-class cryptocurrency** with a very wide **economic moat**.

## The Winner Is...
If forced to pick between these two bargain-priced cryptocurrencies, I'd pick **XRP**. There's more future upside potential, as well as peace of mind that comes from investing in a best-in-class cryptocurrency.

Of course, XRP is no slam-dunk investment by any means. It's now down 17% in 2025, and may take some time before it regains its former mojo. But if it does eventually recover, it could be exactly the type of asset that can deliver 10-fold returns during the next decade. If you invest enough up front and keep adding to your position over time, that might just be enough to make you rich.

Key PointsBoth XRP and Dogecoin have experienced brief periods of rapid price gains during the past decade.

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