Summary:
Arthur Hayes admits to a 25% success rate in his market predictions.
Despite misses, he remains profitable by leveraging long-term macroeconomic trends.
Hayes maintains his volatility supercycle thesis for a bullish outlook on Bitcoin.
His fund recently sold 1.59 million PENDLE tokens, leading to a $1.29 million loss.
He believes continued government money printing will drive up Bitcoin's value.
Arthur Hayes' Market Prediction Track Record
Entrepreneur and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes recently shared his market prediction accuracy, revealing a 25% success rateâonly 2 out of 8 predictions correct over the past year. In his candid blog, he described this as "pretty shit" using a baseball analogy to illustrate his performance.
Leveraging Long-Term Trends
Despite the low batting average, Hayes emphasizes that he has remained profitable by leveraging long-term macroeconomic trends. He covers key market calls from November 2023 to September 2024, including predictions about Treasury bill issuance, banking crises, cryptocurrency price movements, and central bank policies.
The Volatility Supercycle Thesis
Hayes continues to advocate for his volatility supercycle thesis, which forms the basis of his long-term market outlook. Recently, his investment fund, Maelstrom Fund, sold 1.59 million PENDLE tokens for a total of $5.62 million, incurring a loss of $1.29 million in the process.
Government Policies and Bitcoin's Value
He asserts that governments will keep printing money to suppress volatility, which will inevitably lead to an increase in Bitcoin's value. Hayes believes that despite his missed predictionsâincluding an incorrect forecast regarding the Bank Term Funding Program's impactâwhat's more important is being positioned for inevitable monetary expansion.
Advice for Crypto Investors
Hayes predicts that major central banks will continue to ease monetary conditions. He encourages crypto investors to "sit back, relax, and watch the fiat value of your portfolio pump."
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