Bitcoin at $10,000? Analysts Say It Would Take a Nuclear War to Get There

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone is doubling down on his controversial prediction that Bitcoin could drop to $10,000, but industry analysts are pushing back hard, saying such a collapse would require an extreme macroeconomic shock of unprecedented proportions.

The Bearish Call

In a recent interview, McGlone warned that the crypto bear market may not be over and that Bitcoin remains vulnerable if global risk assets reprice sharply. He bases this outlook on broader macroeconomic conditions, arguing that Bitcoin has increasingly traded in tandem with other speculative assets as institutional participation grows, weakening its narrative as an uncorrelated hedge against traditional markets.

McGlone believes the crypto sector is trapped in a broader macroeconomic unwind driven by deflationary pressures, excess speculative supply, and an unfinished correction in traditional risk markets. "It's a bear market," he said. "Sell rallies."

Fierce Rebuttals

McGlone's forecast was met with strong rebuttals from several market analysts who agree that further downside for Bitcoin is possible, but see a drop to $10,000 as highly improbable.

Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics, offered a colorful critique: "For an asset like Bitcoin, which regularly sees tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in daily trading volume across global markets, to revisit $10,000 we'd need a global liquidity crisis, a nuclear war, and the internet to stop working."

Jason Fernandes, co-founder and market analyst at AdLunam, echoed this sentiment: "A move toward levels like $28,000 would likely require a meaningful contraction in global liquidity, widening credit spreads, or a broader financial stress event rather than just a late-cycle slowdown."

Current Market Context

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $70,000, trading between $69,000 and $71,000. The price rise appeared to coincide with oil quickly reversing most of its session's large gains, dropping $3 per barrel in minutes. Other crypto assets, including Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP, also saw upward moves.

More Realistic Scenarios

Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, said Bitcoin could see further downside but described the $10,000 prediction as "highly improbable." He expects Bitcoin to gradually drift lower in the coming months, with the next major accumulation zone potentially emerging between $30,000 and $40,000.

In the shorter term, however, he expects Bitcoin to remain largely range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000, warning that even a rally toward $80,000 could prove temporary if broader macro pressures persist.

Has the Bottom Already Been Reached?

Greenspan suggested that Bitcoin may have already completed its major bear-market correction: "Structurally, Bitcoin already cleared its major bear market in 2022. We're currently looking at roughly a 50% retracement from the all-time high, which is not unusual for Bitcoin."

He added that recent price action has been encouraging and that it is "quite possible we've already seen the bottom."

McGlone, however, believes the market still needs to go through a prolonged cleansing of speculative excess before a durable bottom can form. "I think it's going to last a while, and I don't think it's going to end until we purge some of these excesses," he said.