Bitcoin at Critical Juncture: Nearing Pre-Election Floor as ETF Demand Fades, Citi Warns

Bitcoin Approaches Key Inflection Point

Crypto markets are approaching important inflection points after weeks of declines, according to Wall Street bank Citi. Bitcoin fell to around $73,000 before stabilizing, extending a drawdown that has pushed prices below the bank's estimated average U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) entry price of $81,600. The largest cryptocurrency was trading around $76,100 at publication time.

ETF Inflows Slow as Headwinds Build

The report noted that ETF inflows, a major source of new demand, have slowed materially, while futures markets continue to see pockets of long liquidations. "Crypto markets have exhibited the volatility similar to precious metals but without the upside," analyst Alex Saunders wrote in the Tuesday report.

Digital Gold Comparison Falters

Bitcoin is often framed as “digital gold,” but it has yet to mirror the recent strength seen in precious metals. While gold has rallied amid geopolitical risk and macro uncertainty, BTC has remained under pressure, highlighting its continued sensitivity to liquidity conditions and risk sentiment rather than haven demand.

Regulatory and Macro Risks Loom

Regulation remains the key potential catalyst, Saunders said, but progress on a U.S. digital asset market structure bill has been slow and uneven. While Senate negotiations continue, delays and mixed political support have dampened sentiment, with market-implied odds of passage slipping.

The analyst also pointed to macro risks, including concerns over a shrinking Federal Reserve balance sheet, which historically weighs on crypto through reduced bank liquidity. While concerns of a prolonged crypto winter are rising, Citi said that remains a tail risk rather than its base case.

Approaching Decisive Levels

With average ETF holders now underwater and bitcoin nearing the roughly $70,000 it held before the U.S. presidential election, the report said markets are approaching levels that could prove decisive for near-term direction.