Summary:
65 days remaining until the U.S. presidential election.
Bitcoin's value has shown substantial appreciation post-election in past cycles.
Forecasts suggest Bitcoin could reach $150,000 if Trump wins.
Historical peaks of Bitcoin prices occurred one year post-election.
Current Bitcoin value is 21% below its all-time high.
With just 65 days remaining until the U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin wrapped up August with an 8.6% decline compared to where it started the month. Historically, in the last two election cycles, Bitcoin’s value has only shown substantial appreciation after the election had ended and a victor was declared.
From 2012 to 2020: How Bitcoin Has Historically Reacted to U.S. Elections
On Sept. 1, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) hit an intraday low of $57,230 per coin. With the election season coinciding with BTC’s bull market, many speculate that the election outcome could greatly influence BTC’s market value. For example, back in June, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research forecasted that Bitcoin might reach six figures before the election and could even climb to $150,000 if former President Donald Trump secures a win.
Examining Bitcoin’s price history following the 2016 and 2020 elections, it’s clear that BTC’s value has experienced significant increases after each event. However, the peak of each bull cycle occurred roughly a year post-election. In 2016, BTC’s price peaked in December 2017, and in 2021, the price high was reached in November. To illustrate, during the U.S. election on Nov. 5, 2016, BTC was trading at $703 per coin, and by the end of 2017, it had surged close to $20,000.
On Nov. 5, 2020, BTC was valued at $15,579 per coin, and by Nov. 10, 2021, the price had nearly touched $69,000. Stretching back to the 2013 bull run, on Nov. 5, 2012, BTC was trading at $10.80 per unit, and by December 2013, the cryptocurrency’s value had approached $1,250 per coin. While history may not repeat itself exactly, it often echoes familiar patterns, though the current bull run has a unique twist.
Unlike previous cycles where BTC surged from lows during the election period, BTC had already achieved a lifetime high of over $73,700 per unit in March. This deviation from past bull market/election cycles is noteworthy. Sixty-five days before Nov. 5, 2024, BTC’s value in U.S. dollars stands 21% below its all-time high. This suggests that the election’s outcome could significantly impact BTC’s value in dollars. Only time will reveal if history will follow a similar pattern to previous U.S. elections.
What do you think about the U.S. election moving Bitcoin’s price this year? Do you think that it’s a possibility? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
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