Crypto bettors are growing increasingly skeptical about Elon Musk's chances of winning his ongoing legal battle against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. On the prediction platform Polymarket, contracts now show only a 37% probability of a Musk victory, down sharply from previous projections.
Legal Dispute Over OpenAI's Direction
The lawsuit, set for trial on April 28 in a California federal court, centers on Musk's claim that OpenAI abandoned its founding principles. The SpaceX and xAI founder recently stated that any financial gains from a successful case would be donated, emphasizing that he does not intend to profit personally.
Polymarket data reveals that 63% of bettors predict Altman will win, while only 37% back Musk. The conflict traces back to OpenAI's early days in 2015, when Musk was among its founding backers and contributed about $38 million to the project.
Musk argued that OpenAI was created to be a nonprofit focused on developing artificial general intelligence (AGI) for public benefit. He claims the company later deviated from that mission by forming commercial partnerships, including a high-profile alliance with Microsoft (MSFT).
OpenAI disputes this narrative, maintaining that Musk was aware of, and agreed to, the shift toward a "for-profit structure" as early as 2017. The company also claimed that Musk exited after disagreements over control and later encouraged the firm to secure large-scale funding independently.
Damages Debate Takes Center Stage
In the legal battle, Musk has demanded damages estimated between $79 billion and $134 billion. He publicly revealed that if he wins the case, he will distribute all the proceeds to charity.
During pre-trial proceedings, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers expressed doubts about the justification for the higher fine, suggesting it lacked sufficient evidence. Despite her hesitation, the judge did not exclude the testimony of Musk's expert witness, leaving it to the jury to assess its credibility.
The trial follows a separate legal dispute involving xAI that was dismissed earlier this year, highlighting the continued tensions between Musk and Altman.
AI Investment Opportunities
While Polymarket and OpenAI remain private companies ahead of potential IPOs, investors interested in AI stocks can consider top players such as Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), and Alphabet Class A (GOOGL), which analysts rate as Strong Buy on TipRanks' comparison tools.
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