Fidelity's Top Strategist Warns: Bitcoin's Bull Run Is Over, Brace for a Year-Long Crypto Winter

Fidelity's Global Macro Director Turns Bearish on Bitcoin

Jurien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity and a long-time bitcoin bull, has shifted his stance, becoming one of the latest financial strategists to turn more bearish on bitcoin. He cites the asset's four-year cycle as a key reason for his caution.

Bitcoin's Historical Pattern Points to a "Year Off"

Bitcoin has historically followed a repeatable pattern, and from both an analog and time-based perspective, the current cycle appears to be aligning closely with prior ones, Timmer argues. The October all-time high near $125,000, reached after roughly 145 months of cumulative rallying, fits well within this framework.

Timmer notes that bitcoin bear markets, often referred to as winters, typically last about a year. As a result, he sees 2026 as a potential "year off" for bitcoin following the conclusion of the latest halving-driven cycle.

"While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time," Timmer wrote on X. "If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for bitcoin. Support is at $65,000 to $75,000."

Gold's Strong Performance Contrasts with Bitcoin's Weakness

Timmer also highlights gold's strong performance in 2025, contrasting it with bitcoin's negative year, and does not expect a near-term mean reversion between the two assets. Gold is firmly in a bull market, up roughly 65% year to date, outperforming global money supply growth, Timmer noted. He adds that during the recent correction, gold has held onto most of its gains, which he views as characteristic behavior of a bull market.

This analysis from a prominent figure at Fidelity suggests that investors should prepare for a prolonged period of consolidation or decline in bitcoin, while gold continues to shine. The warning of a year-long crypto winter could have significant implications for market sentiment and investment strategies in the coming months.