Gold’s breakout above $5,000 is starting to look less like a temporary spike and more like a durable macro regime shift, while bitcoin drifts sideways around $87,000 in early Hong Kong trading. This low-conviction market continues to struggle with internal supply dynamics, as onchain indicators suggest the divergence reflects market structure rather than sentiment alone.
In its latest report, CryptoQuant notes that bitcoin holders have begun selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023, with older buyers exiting positions and newer holders stepping in—a pattern that typically signals a market moving into consolidation rather than acceleration.
Glassnode adds that the market is being held back by supply, with rallies repeatedly running into sellers near the prices where recent buyers originally bought in. The price continues to stall below key short-term holder cost bases near $98,000, with a dense supply overhang above $100,000, making a sustained move above that level difficult in the near term.
Options and prediction markets reinforce this view: the market is pricing gold’s strength as persistent while fading expectations for a near-term resurgence in bitcoin rally. Recent rallies have drawn out breakeven sellers and loss-driven exits from investors who accumulated during the 2025 highs, reinforcing overhead resistance and keeping upside fragile.
Market mechanics further support this diagnosis. Futures volumes remain compressed, leverage deployment is subdued, and recent price movements have occurred in thin liquidity rather than alongside expanding participation.
On Polymarket, traders are assigning higher odds to gold holding above $5,500 through mid-year, while increasingly betting that bitcoin sees further consolidation before any renewed upside. For now, gold is absorbing macro stress, while bitcoin remains in digestion mode, working through internal supply rather than responding to external catalysts.
Market Movement
- BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $87,000, struggling to gain traction as overhead supply, thin participation, and subdued leverage keep rallies vulnerable to renewed distribution.
- ETH: Ether is underperforming bitcoin, with price action reflecting weak demand, muted derivatives participation, and little sign that investors are rotating meaningfully back into higher beta crypto assets.
- Gold: Gold surged to a fresh record above $5,000 an ounce as investors piled into the metal amid rising geopolitical flashpoints, sustained central bank buying, and a weaker U.S. dollar, reinforcing its role as a durable hedge against global risk.
- Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei slid as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, with a stronger yen weighing on Japanese stocks while other regional benchmarks moved unevenly.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- The big U.S. crypto bill is on the move. Here is what it means for everyday users (CoinDesk)
- Ethereum Foundation forms post-quantum security team, adds $1 million research prize (The Block)
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