Summary:
Bitcoin's bull market is still in play, with analysts targeting $146,000.
Current holdings of new investors are just above 50%, much lower than past cycles.
Retail activity has slowed, with investors reducing holdings by 41,000 BTC.
Institutional investors have increased holdings, adding 130,000 BTC.
Recent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached a record $3.1 billion.
Bitcoin’s valuation metrics indicate that the bull market is far from over and might be gearing up for even greater highs. Analysts are eyeing a potential target of $146,000 during this cycle, with no signs of overvaluation typically associated with price peaks.
In a recent report by CryptoQuant, it was noted that the value held by new Bitcoin holders remains below previous cycle levels. Currently, holdings of new investors account for just over 50% of the total invested in the cryptocurrency, contrasting with previous market tops where it was over 90% and 80% in 2017 and 2021, respectively.
This situation may be attributed to a slow retail activity in Bitcoin purchases observed over recent weeks. The analysis suggests that a surge in retail activity is often a typical condition for market cycle tops. Since October, retail investors have reduced their holdings by 41,000 BTC, while larger investors have increased their positions by 130,000 BTC.
“Previous bull cycles have ended when retail investors were buying aggressively, which is not the case today.”
This shift hints at a potential transition in market dynamics, with institutional and large-scale players leading the accumulation phase. Notably, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were significant contributors to Bitcoin purchases in November, with weekly inflows reaching a record $3.1 billion during the week ending November 22, coinciding with Bitcoin's price peak of $99,655.50.
As of November 26, the Bitcoin price fell to around $91,000, failing to break the $100,000 resistance level. Some analysts predict a potential 30% correction before the cryptocurrency can surpass this six-figure milestone.
CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator has remained in the bull area since early November and continues to rise, although it still lags behind the overheated phase last seen in March 2024, when Bitcoin traded above $70,000.
From a realized price valuation perspective, Bitcoin’s top target stands at $146,000. This price band has previously acted as a ceiling for Bitcoin's value, as seen in the April-May 2021 cycle. The report mentions that the P&L Index has not yet reached overvalued levels, suggesting that there is still room for price increases.
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