Bitcoin is now 18 months past its latest, fourth halving event—a process that historically tightens mining rewards and has preceded significant price increases for the cryptocurrency.
The Traditional Bitcoin Cycle
Despite its relatively short history, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to surge following a halving, only to see those gains diminish or disappear in a subsequent bear market. Prices then stabilize and gradually climb in anticipation of the next halving, creating what many refer to as Bitcoin's four-year cycle.
A Shift in the Cycle?
Recent developments suggest this cycle might be fading, which could actually be positive for long-term holders and investors in Bitcoin ETFs like the Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR). The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in January 2024 has brought a wave of new investors into the market, potentially reducing the reliance on halvings as a primary price catalyst.
The Role of ETFs
These ETFs not only track Bitcoin's price without requiring direct ownership but also contribute to reducing supply. Issuers often purchase more Bitcoin than is mined daily, and since many investors hold long-term, this creates a scenario where the traditional four-year cycle may no longer be as relevant.
Looking Ahead
While it's too early to definitively say the cycle is broken, the combination of ETF-driven demand and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could sustain Bitcoin's bullish momentum into 2026 and beyond, irrespective of halving events.
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