Standard Chartered: Strategy's Bitcoin Sales Are 'Mostly Noise,' Maintains $100K Target

Standard Chartered has weighed in on Strategy's recent Bitcoin sales, calling them "mostly noise" and a short-term distraction. The bank reaffirms its $100,000 year-end price target for Bitcoin, urging investors to look past the selling.

The Shift in Strategy

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has started selling Bitcoin to fund dividends on its preferred stock (STRC). This marks a departure from its long-standing "never sell" stance, unsettling the market. Last week, it sold 3,588 BTC ($216M) between June 29 and July 5, leaving it with 843,775 BTC. A smaller sale of 32 BTC in early June triggered its worst week since 2022.

Standard Chartered's View

Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered argues the sales are "mostly noise rather than a signal" of Bitcoin's medium-term direction. He emphasizes that clear communication is key to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely. The bank maintains its end-2026 forecast of $100,000.

The mNAV Issue

Strategy's old model relied on its shares trading at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings (measured by mNAV). That premium has evaporated, with mNAV now around 1 on an enterprise-value basis and 0.7 on a diluted basis. The company's BTC stack, bought for $63.7B, is now worth ~$54B, and it booked an $8.3B loss last quarter (mostly unrealized).

Backing the STRC Dividend

With the accumulation model stalled, Strategy is using Bitcoin as collateral for its STRC perpetual preferred stock, which pays a 12% annual dividend and has ~$10B outstanding. The shares slid to an intraday low of $71.25 after the first Bitcoin sale, suggesting the market is not yet convinced. Under a "BTC Monetization Program", Strategy can sell up to $1.25B in Bitcoin to fund dividends. However, the reserve behind the dividend holds $2.55B, covering almost a year and a half of payments.

Market Sentiment

Bitcoin trades around $64,440, up 3.8% on the week but down 42% over the past year and 49% below its October 2025 record of $126,080. Traders are doubtful Strategy will resume buying at full tilt: a Myriad prediction market puts the chance of the company holding over 1M BTC before 2027 at just 13%.