The past eight months have been a tough pill for Bitcoin (BTC) investors to swallow. The world's most popular cryptocurrency is down 47% over that period and recently dropped below $70,000. Bitcoin ETF outflows are accelerating, and even Michael Saylor has started to sell some of his Bitcoin.
Despite all that, I'm buying Bitcoin right now. I'm not expecting Bitcoin to recover immediately, but when it does -- as I think it inevitably will -- it's going to be a coiled spring ready to bounce higher.
It's Still Bitcoin Season
In the crypto market, it's still "Bitcoin season." That means it's time to load up on Bitcoin and wait for the broader crypto market to recover. Later, once Bitcoin has ignited a broader crypto recovery, it becomes "altcoin season." That's the time to rotate into riskier altcoins.
The indicator I'm using is the Altcoin Season Index from CoinMarketCap. It takes into account the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies ranked by market cap (excluding stablecoins) and counts how many have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. Right now, the indicator is at 51, suggesting that half of the market has outperformed Bitcoin, and half has underperformed. As long as the indicator remains under 75, it's Bitcoin season.
In short, there is no time to panic. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin has been down approximately 8%. But just about every other large-cap crypto is also down. Ethereum, for example, is down 12%. XRP is down 14%. And Solana is down 18%.
Bitcoin Has Always Bounced Back
Long-time crypto investors understand that Bitcoin is highly cyclical. It has moved in four-year cycles and followed a predictable pattern: two years of accelerating returns, one year in which Bitcoin explodes in value to hit a new all-time high, and one year of total collapse. Then the cycle begins anew. At least that's how it's been so far.
So, guess where we are in the cycle right now? Yes, we're in the year of "total collapse." The collapse started in October, so there's likely to be several more months of pain ahead. But after that -- if history repeats -- Bitcoin will begin to regain its footing.
Just check the numbers from previous Bitcoin cycles. In 2019, 2020, and 2021, Bitcoin soared in value. Then it lost 64% of its value in 2022. In 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin once again soared in value. And in the first nine months of 2025, Bitcoin exploded in value, hitting a new all-time high of $126,000. That's three good years, then one bad year.
That's why I'm not concerned about Bitcoin recently falling below $70,000. Quite likely, it will fall further still in 2026. But just wait until 2027, when Bitcoin is likely to regain its momentum and begin to bounce back higher. By the time of its next halving in April 2028, Bitcoin should be primed to hit yet another all-time high.
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