Why Nvidia's $4 Trillion Milestone and Bitcoin's Surge Challenge Trump's View on Powell's 'Easy' Fed Job

Nvidia tops $4 trillion. Bitcoin hits a high above $112,000. And the technology-heavy Nasdaq climbs to a record close. That all sounds great, but it leaves a lot for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to ponder.

Powell has one of the easiest jobs in Washington, according to President Donald Trump. But the latest stocks rally Wednesday highlights a key dilemma—are the market and the economy going to stay strong, or will Trump’s tariffs derail them?

The answer will go a long way to determining if and when interest rates go lower—something Trump has made very clear he would like to see. Minutes from last month’s meeting, released Wednesday, show a divide emerging among policy makers, with some ready to start cutting sooner rather than later.

For his part, Powell says there is still a risk that tariffs drive up inflation, which is the main reason for the wait-and-see approach even as the labor market shows signs of weakening. But there is also a chance that tariffs slam the brakes on growth—the new 50% levy on copper, which is crucial for everything from electronics to homebuilding, looks particularly risky in that regard.

If that is what’s happening, then waiting for more evidence could put the Fed behind the curve—and it would add weight to Trump’s accusations that Powell is always too late to act. The upcoming earnings season could provide more clues.

It’s not just the Fed and Powell facing tough choices—it’s investors, too. The stock market is powering ahead as if tariffs aren’t a threat to the economy. The bond market is holding up as if tariffs won’t be inflationary and Fed cuts are coming.

It’s hard to see how they can both be right. And the worst-case scenario is stagflation, when growth tanks and inflation takes off. Everyone loses if that comes to pass. It would make Nvidia and the market’s recent milestones look like hollow victories, and Powell’s job harder still.