MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares dipped on Thursday ahead of a potentially pivotal moment for the bitcoin-holding company. The Nasdaq is set to announce annual changes to the Nasdaq 100 index, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) with over $400 billion invested. This reconstitution comes as MSCI considers excluding companies whose primary business is acquiring bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, which could oust MSTR stock from its indices.
The bitcoin price has climbed over the past 24 hours, possibly buoyed by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish signals on Wednesday. MicroStrategy pared deep losses after Robinhood's (HOOD) monthly metrics indicated lower crypto trading activity, weighing on the sector.
MSCI and Nasdaq 100 Criteria
Nasdaq added MicroStrategy to the Nasdaq 100 a year ago, with no indication of reconsideration. However, the Nasdaq 100 excludes financial firms, and MicroStrategy, in arguing for its place in MSCI indices, described operations similar to a financial firm. If Nasdaq reviews MicroStrategy's status, the annual adjustment might be the time to announce it.
In a letter to the MSCI Equity Index Committee, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le argued that MicroStrategy merits inclusion because it isn't just a passive bitcoin accumulator but an operating company selling unique "digital credit instruments," using proceeds to buy bitcoin. They wrote that its business model, capturing the spread between capital cost and asset return, "is comparable to the centuries-old business models of banks and insurance companies."
MSCI said in September it would consult on treating companies funding digital asset purchases. On Oct. 10, it considered a rule excluding companies with at least 50% of assets in digital assets, noting similarities to investment funds. A decision is expected by Jan. 15.
Nasdaq hasn't commented on MSTR's eligibility ahead of the annual reconstitution. JPMorgan raised the possibility that other index operators could follow MSCI if it ousts MicroStrategy.
MicroStrategy Capitalizes on Passive-Fund Demand
Saylor and Le highlighted JPMorgan research that MicroStrategy could have "up to $2.8 billion of its stock liquidated" if MSCI drops MSTR. JPMorgan estimates about $8.8 billion of MicroStrategy's $50 billion market cap is held by passive index funds tracking Nasdaq 100, MSCI, Russell, and CRSP indexes, including $1.7 billion from Nasdaq 100 funds.
For most companies, issuing common stock shouldn't affect valuation, but for firms like MicroStrategy using shares to buy bitcoin, they can grow market cap, increasing index weight and compelling passive funds to buy more shares. Potentially, there's no limit to MicroStrategy's index weighting if Saylor executes his plan: "We are going to buy all of it," he said this week.
Bitcoin Price Impact
Without passive fund support, MicroStrategy might hit limits on crypto purchases, especially as it shifts to funding buys primarily with stock instead of high-interest preferred stock. This move comes amid concerns over convertible bond and preferred stock obligations possibly leading to bitcoin sales.
Anything restraining MicroStrategy's bitcoin buying is negative for the price, according to Saylor. At a Middle East bitcoin conference, he said, "bitcoin would probably be trading at $10,000 a coin right now" without MicroStrategy's accumulation.
Saylor and Le note MicroStrategy "has at times traded at multiples higher" than its bitcoin holdings, proving investors value their "financial acumen." However, MicroStrategy has shed most of its premium, with an enterprise value about 114% of bitcoin holdings.
Exclusion from MSCI could further erase the premium. If MSTR stock moves with bitcoin, it might dampen trading volume, making it harder to issue shares for more bitcoin buys. They also see MSCI's 50% threshold as unworkable, as a bitcoin price jump could push companies over it, compelling sales.
MSCI vs. Trump
MicroStrategy's letter asserts MSCI's proposal "would undermine the federal government's goal of promoting digital assets while stifling innovation, impeding economic development and harming national security." They write that the Trump administration aims to facilitate digital asset investment for pension and 401(k) plans, but MSCI's proposal would deny access, moving billions away and undermining key goals.
MSTR Stock and Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin briefly joined a gold and silver rally on Wednesday, topping $94,000 on Powell's dovish comments, but couldn't hold gains, possibly pulling back with Robinhood. After trading around $90,000 on Thursday, bitcoin bounced to $92,370 by early Friday.
MSTR stock dived 6% Thursday morning but finished 0.7% lower at 183.30. MicroStrategy is down 60% from its 52-week high and 55% since joining the Nasdaq 100. Robinhood and Coinbase (COIN), not in the Nasdaq 100 as financial firms, fell 9% and 2.2%, respectively.
Comments
Join Our Community
Sign up to share your thoughts, engage with others, and become part of our growing community.
No comments yet
Be the first to share your thoughts and start the conversation!