Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, recently revised his 2026 forecast for XRP downward. Initially predicting $8 by December, he now estimates $2.80 due to macroeconomic challenges, though this still implies a 107% upside from the current price of $1.35.
I believe Kendrick was correct to adjust his target, but I think he remains overly optimistic. XRP has already fallen 61% from its peak, and I anticipate further declines this year, potentially reaching $1 by December. Here's the reasoning behind this bearish outlook.
Image source: Getty Images.
XRP is not gaining traction as a bridge currency
XRP serves as the native digital asset on the XRP Ledger, a blockchain designed for faster and cheaper cross-border transactions compared to the SWIFT messaging system. While SWIFT dominates international wire transfers, it often involves high fees and slow settlement times. In contrast, the XRP blockchain processes payments in seconds with negligible fees.
Ripple, a fintech company, leverages XRP as a bridge currency in its Ripple Payments ODL platform, converting fiat to XRP for transfers and back at the destination. Last year, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse projected that XRP would capture 14% of SWIFT's market share by 2030, potentially handling $21 trillion in annual volume and boosting demand.
However, XRP transaction volume has remained stagnant over the past year, indicating limited adoption by businesses. The volatility of cryptocurrencies like XRP makes them less appealing compared to stablecoins such as USDT and USDC. Ripple's introduction of Ripple USD (RLUSD) has not significantly impacted XRP's usage, as RLUSD faces stiff competition from more established stablecoins.
Spot XRP ETFs have not moved the needle
Spot XRP ETFs, which track XRP's price, were expected to be a major catalyst by providing an easy investment avenue. The SEC has approved six such ETFs, but they have failed to drive growth since their launch late last year. In fact, XRP has declined 42% in 2026 despite these funds.
Daily net inflows to spot XRP ETFs have trended downward, with assets under management at $1 billion—only about 1.2% of XRP's $81 billion market cap. In comparison, Bitcoin has seen a 23% decline year-to-date, with spot Bitcoin ETFs holding $95 billion in AUM, representing 6.4% of its $1.4 trillion market value. This disparity suggests weaker institutional interest in XRP compared to Bitcoin.
The overall picture is clear: XRP struggles as a bridge currency against stablecoin alternatives, and spot ETFs have not provided the anticipated boost. Without significant catalysts for price appreciation, I predict XRP will drop to $1 by the end of 2026.
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