XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) surged past $1.50 on April 17, marking its first breakthrough since March and signaling what appeared to be a genuine breakout. The rally was fueled by significant catalysts: the Rakuten Wallet launch in Japan, the Ripple-Kyobo Life deal in Korea, and the strongest XRP ETF inflows since February. However, the weekend brought a sharp reversal.
What Happened to XRP Over the Weekend
Friday showcased XRP's potential, with the token hitting $1.51 and closing the week outperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum. But the situation shifted dramatically when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday, causing oil prices to jump 7% and Bitcoin to slip to around $74,000. The entire crypto market pulled back, and XRP dropped roughly 6% from Friday's high, trading around $1.43 as of Monday, April 20.
Why This Pullback Looks Different From Every Other One This Year
Previous XRP rallies in 2026 typically saw the crypto drop back to the $1.28-$1.30 range within 48 hours of peaking. For instance, the March 17 spike to $1.60 faded quickly, and the April 7 pump on ceasefire news pulled back within a day. Both times, XRP lost the 50-day moving average at $1.40.
This time is different. XRP is still trading around $1.43 more than 60 hours after Friday's high, holding above the 50-day moving average and retaining about half the week's gains. Unlike prior rallies that merely rode Bitcoin's momentum, this one is driven by XRP's own fundamentals: the Rakuten Wallet launch reaching 44 million Japanese users, the Ripple-Kyobo Life deal, and the launch of wrapped XRP on Solana, enabling use in Solana's DeFi apps without selling.
Additionally, large wallets have been buying more than 11 million XRP a day on average over the past month, the highest pace in 10 months, indicating strong holder confidence despite geopolitical tensions.
What Monday's Open Decides for XRP's Week Ahead
The weekend tested XRP at $1.43, and the week ahead will determine if it holds. Monday opens with Hormuz still closed, oil climbing, and Bitcoin at $75,000. If BTC loses that level, pressure could return and unravel last week's rally. But if it holds, XRP's $1.43 price has a real shot at sticking.
Key events this week include the April 22 ceasefire expiry. If it lapses without extension, the crypto market could suffer. An extension would give XRP's recovery room to breathe. Later, the CLARITY Act markup and FOMC meeting close out the month. XRP doesn't need all catalysts to succeed; one—a ceasefire extension, CLARITY Act date, or softer Fed tone—could prevent a collapse.
Is the XRP Rally Done? Here's the Honest Take
We believe XRP's rally isn't over, but this week is critical. For the first time in a while, bad news hasn't pulled XRP back to $1.28-$1.30. The 50-day moving average at $1.40 is holding, signaling this rally's uniqueness.
If XRP closes the week above $1.40, the rally stays intact, potentially retesting $1.50. A ceasefire extension past April 22 would ease macro pressure, and a firm CLARITY Act markup date before May could attract institutional buyers. Either scenario could spark another rally toward $1.60 or higher in coming weeks.
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