Bitcoin and Ethereum Hold Steady as CPI and China-U.S. Trade Talks Loom – What’s Next for Crypto?

Good Morning, Asia: Markets in Holding Pattern

Crypto markets have entered midweek in a holding pattern, with Bitcoin and Ethereum trading in a narrow range as traders await key economic data and geopolitical developments.

Key Market Movements

• Bitcoin is trading around $108,164, up slightly from Monday but still down 2% on the week.
• Ethereum is changing hands near $3,815, with volume up 33% as traders accumulate ahead of U.S. inflation data.
• Gold continues to experience a record-setting sell-off, with futures down 0.3% to $4,097.80 an ounce after Tuesday’s 5.7% plunge.
• Asia-Pacific markets fell Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.5%, amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions.

Awaiting CPI and Trade Developments

Investors are in wait-and-see mode as the U.S. shutdown stalls data releases and China signals restraint on export controls, keeping markets range-bound ahead of Friday’s CPI report.

• QCP Capital described the current state as a “narrow-range equilibrium”, noting that CPI is the “singular anchor” for policy expectations and risk sentiment.
• A softer 0.2% CPI print could “re-anchor the soft-landing trade” and support Bitcoin’s upside skew as liquidity expectations improve.
• Polymarket traders now assign a 77% probability that Washington and Beijing will reach a tariff agreement by Nov. 10, while the odds of Trump’s promised 100% tariffs on China taking effect have fallen to 16%.

Analyst Insights

• Standard Chartered analysts say a dip below $100,000 for Bitcoin could be a “last chance to buy” before the next leg higher.
• For Ethereum, a $650 million transfer by the Ethereum Foundation triggered $700 million in profit-taking and long liquidations, leaving analysts divided between a potential breakout toward $5,000 or a slide toward $2,850 if support at $3,470 fails.
• The relative calm in both crypto and equities reflects a détente narrative, with Trump’s softer weekend remarks that “the USA wants to help China, not hurt it” reinforcing expectations of a pragmatic approach.

Broader Context

Last week’s $20 billion liquidation flush and Binance’s collateral mispricing have largely run their course, setting a cleaner slate for macro traders heading into the CPI event.

Whether the current calm holds will depend on whether Friday’s inflation print keeps the “soft landing” story alive or revives the volatility that markets have only just begun to shake off.