Bitcoin has historically shown strong performance in July, with an average gain of 7.42% following downtrends in June. This year, however, the impact of Mt. Gox repayments and potential sales from the German government might pose challenges.  **While analysts anticipate a potential rebound in July,** they acknowledge the potential downward pressure from the **$8.5 billion in Bitcoin repayments to Mt. Gox creditors**, starting this month.  **While only $4 billion is expected to hit the spot Bitcoin market**, analysts like Jonathan de Wet of ZeroCap warn that the price could dip to **$57,000** as a result. Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin has been trading strongly in the **$60,000 range**, with **historical best monthly performance typically occurring in November**, averaging a **46.81% gain** since 2013.

<p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjQtMDYvNjc3YjU4MzAtZTc4MS00ODMxLWE0ZTItZGQ0OTBlNzM2OTdhLmpwZw==.jpg"></p><p>Bitcoin tends toward strong performance in July, but Mt. Gox is weighing on hopes of a rebound. </p>

Tom Mitchelhill 18 minutes ago Bitcoin tends toward strong performance in July, but Mt. Gox is weighing on hopes of a rebound. 256 Total views Listen to article 0:00 News Own this piece of crypto history Collect this article as NFT Join us on social networks Bitcoin (BTC) may see a strong rebound in July following a lackluster performance in June, which saw Bitcoin falling almost 7% in the month, according to analystsThe price of Bitcoin dropped as much as 6.96% last month and has historically averaged a slump of 0.35% in June, according to data from Coinglass — which tracks the monthly returns of Bitcoin beginning in 2013. In a June 30 post to X, Ali Martinez, a crypto markets analyst, noted that in previous years, whenever the month of June ends in a downtrend, the following month sees a roaring comeback, with Bitcoin gaining an average of 7.42% historically. Overall, BTC has posted minimum monthly gains of 8% for seven of the last eleven July trading periods.Historically Bitcoin has performed strongly in July whenever June ended in a decline. Source: CoinGlassMemecoin analyst Murad also noted this in a post to their 103,000 followers on X, pointing to the swift historical rebounds beginning in July.Murad noted that Bitcoin had posted minimum gains of 28% in the first few weeks of every July for the last six consecutive years. Source: MuradHowever, several analysts predict that July could be a tougher month than usual, pointing to sizeable sales of Bitcoin from the German government and the upcoming Mt. Gox repayments which could put pressure on the price of Bitcoin.Mt. Gox Bitcoin adds new pressureThese repayments are expected to see around $8.5 billion in BTC paid back to creditors starting in the first week of this month. However, several analysts believe the impact of these repayments may not be as dire as many investors expect, with only $4 billion of this amount standing to hit the spot BTC market. Related: Bitcoin price gets 'interesting' as triple candle close sees $61.5K returnJonathan de Wet, chief investment officer at digital asset trading firm ZeroCap told Cointelegraph last week that Bitcoin had been trading strongly in a low to mid $60,000 range despite headwinds. He said he expects the asset to hold around this level, but noted it could fall to its “key support” level at around $57,000 in the coming weeks as Mt. Gox creditor repayments hit the market.Historically, Bitcoin’s best monthly performance tends to arrive in November, posting an average monthly gain of 46.81% since 2013. Magazine — ‘Bitcoin Layer 2s’ aren’t really L2s at all: Here’s why that matters#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Bitcoin Price #Adoption #Predictions #Mt. Gox #Cryptocurrency Investment Add reaction

Bitcoin Poised for July Rebound, But Mt. Gox Payments Could Derail Hopes

## The Unexpected Silver Lining in Crypto's Decline

After a year of **record gains** for the cryptocurrency industry, recent market forces have sent it into a **tailspin**. Bitcoin, for example, reached dazzling heights of more than **$120,000** in October — before crashing back down to around **$88,000** today, about 12 percent down from where it was a year ago.

While that might be bad news for **crypto enthusiasts** or **day traders**, one prominent economist argues that this decline is actually **good news for the rest of us**.

![Bitcoin crash economic impact](https://futurism.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/bitcoin-crash-economist.jpg?quality=85&w=1152)

*Illustration by Tag Hartman-Simkins / Futurism. Source: Getty Images*

## Economist Dean Baker's Counterintuitive Analysis

Co-director of the **Center for Economic and Policy Research** Dean Baker argued in his blog *Beat The Press* this week that as major cryptocurrencies fall, **purchasing power for the rest of us goes up**. In his analysis, he compares crypto to **counterfeit currency** — fake money that allows certain groups to buy up all kinds of scarce goods, like houses and sports tickets.

When they buy up those goods with what Baker calls "funny money," they help drive **prices up**, making them less affordable for those who don't participate in the crypto market.

## The Counterfeit Money Analogy

"If some supersleuth detective figured out a way to recognize the counterfeit bills, they could then remove **trillions of dollars of fake money** from circulation," Baker explains. "This would benefit the general public by **reducing demand** in the economy and reversing the run-up in the price of housing and Superbowl tickets. It is the same story with **plunging crypto prices**."

From this perspective, cryptocurrency — which Baker notes has **no real value** — allows people to absorb "large chunks" of the economy with a currency that's built on **thin air**. When their share of this perceived fake money shrinks, it **eases pressure** on everyone else. "To put it simply: there's more for everyone else," Baker explains.

## The Staggering Scale of the Shift

We're not talking about small, intangible changes either. By Baker's count, major cryptocurrencies like **Bitcoin and Ethereum** have shed over **$1.2 trillion in market capitalization**, or "enough to send every household in the United States a check for **$10,000**."

In his view, everybody who doesn't own cryptocurrency should be **cheering for crypto's ongoing downfall** to continue.

## The Minimal Real-World Impact

"The only possible impact of lower crypto prices on production is that we will make less crypto," says Baker. "The horror! The horror!"

This perspective challenges conventional thinking about market declines, suggesting that what appears to be bad news for some might actually represent **economic redistribution** that benefits the broader population.

In a recent analysis, economist Dean Baker explains that crypto's collapse leaves the rest of us with a bigger piece of the economic pie.

Why Bitcoin's Crash Could Be the Best Economic News for Everyday People

## Fidelity's Global Macro Director Turns Bearish on Bitcoin

Jurien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity and a long-time **bitcoin bull**, has shifted his stance, becoming one of the latest financial strategists to turn more **bearish on bitcoin**. He cites the asset's **four-year cycle** as a key reason for his caution.

### Bitcoin's Historical Pattern Points to a "Year Off"

Bitcoin has historically followed a repeatable pattern, and from both an analog and time-based perspective, the current cycle appears to be aligning closely with prior ones, Timmer argues. The **October all-time high near $125,000**, reached after roughly 145 months of cumulative rallying, fits well within this framework.

Timmer notes that **bitcoin bear markets**, often referred to as winters, typically last about a year. As a result, he sees **2026 as a potential "year off" for bitcoin** following the conclusion of the latest halving-driven cycle.

"While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time," Timmer wrote on X. "If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for bitcoin. **Support is at $65,000 to $75,000.**"

### Gold's Strong Performance Contrasts with Bitcoin's Weakness

Timmer also highlights **gold's strong performance in 2025**, contrasting it with bitcoin's negative year, and does not expect a near-term mean reversion between the two assets. Gold is firmly in a **bull market, up roughly 65% year to date**, outperforming global money supply growth, Timmer noted. He adds that during the recent correction, gold has held onto most of its gains, which he views as characteristic behavior of a bull market.

This analysis from a prominent figure at Fidelity suggests that investors should prepare for a **prolonged period of consolidation or decline in bitcoin**, while gold continues to shine. The warning of a **year-long crypto winter** could have significant implications for market sentiment and investment strategies in the coming months.

Fidelity’s global macro director, Jurien Timmer, has called the end of the latest bitcoin bull run, while highlighting gold’s continued bull market strength.

Fidelity's Top Strategist Warns: Bitcoin's Bull Run Is Over, Brace for a Year-Long Crypto Winter

**CF Benchmarks**, a subsidiary of Kraken, has released a groundbreaking report that positions **bitcoin** as a core component of institutional portfolios, projecting a base-case price of **$1.4 million by 2035**. This analysis shifts the focus from short-term speculation to long-term valuation frameworks, reflecting growing institutional adoption.

### A Portfolio-Based Approach to Bitcoin
Instead of making near-term price calls, CF Benchmarks applies capital market models traditionally used for assets like stocks and bonds. The firm argues that **bitcoin** can be evaluated based on expected returns, volatility, and correlations, similar to traditional investments. This shift is driven by increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity in spot and derivatives markets, and improving regulatory clarity.

The report, titled "Building Bitcoin Capital Market Assumptions: A Practitioner's Framework for Strategic and Tactical Allocations," uses multiple valuation frameworks:
- **Comparative valuation** against other stores of value, such as gold.
- **Production economics** linking market price to mining costs.
- Analysis of **bitcoin's sensitivity** to global liquidity conditions.

Together, these approaches suggest that **bitcoin's value** is supported by its expanding share of the global store-of-value market, its fixed supply schedule, and its responsiveness to monetary conditions. As institutional adoption grows, volatility is expected to decline, while correlations with traditional assets remain low, enhancing diversification potential.

### Long-Term Price Scenarios Through 2035
CF Benchmarks outlines three valuation scenarios for **bitcoin** through 2035, based on different adoption paths:
- **Bear Case**: Bitcoin captures 16% to 33% of gold's market capitalization, leading to a price of about **$637,000** by 2035.
- **Base Case**: Broader institutional adoption with bitcoin reaching roughly one-third of gold's market cap, implying a price of around **$1.42 million** by 2035.
- **Bull Case**: Bitcoin becomes the dominant global store of value, surpassing gold's market cap, with a projected valuation of nearly **$2.95 million** by 2035, driven by accelerated institutional and sovereign adoption.

### Implications for Institutional Portfolios
Beyond price projections, the report highlights that a strategic allocation of **2% to 5% to bitcoin** could significantly improve portfolio efficiency. **Bitcoin's high expected returns**, declining volatility, and low correlations with equities and bonds expand the efficient frontier, allowing for higher returns at comparable or lower risk levels.

CF Benchmarks emphasizes that as regulatory clarity improves, investors are likely to focus more on disciplined allocation, rebalancing, and risk management frameworks, rather than speculative narratives. This positions **bitcoin** as an asset that can be modeled as a long-term portfolio component, with valuation tied to adoption dynamics and macroeconomic conditions.

CF Benchmarks outlines long-term bitcoin valuation scenarios through 2035, including a bear case near $637,000, as institutions apply portfolio models to crypto.

Bitcoin's Stunning $1.4 Million Price Target by 2035: How Institutions Are Redefining Portfolio Strategy

The bitcoin price bounced above $87,000 early Thursday after slipping to a three-week low, despite major support from **MicroStrategy** (MSTR). The bitcoin-holding company has deployed **$1.94 billion** to buy the cryptocurrency over the past two weeks, spending more than it did over the prior three months. MicroStrategy is going full-throttle to avoid a scenario that Chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le have discussed recently, which could see the firm's enterprise value fall below the value of its bitcoin holdings.

Despite MicroStrategy scooping up more than **20,000 bitcoin** in the past two weeks, the bitcoin price hasn't emerged from its slump, failing to rally like gold and silver after last week's Federal Reserve rate cut and relatively dovish outlook. MSTR stock has fared even worse, tumbling more than **9%** on the week through Wednesday's close, the lowest since September 2024.

## MicroStrategy's Key Metric: Bitcoin Per Share

As MSTR stock fails to get traction, MicroStrategy may be running low on fuel to keep buying bitcoin. To understand why, it's important to understand that MicroStrategy's goal in buying bitcoin is to increase the number of bitcoin it holds per share of stock. That's in keeping with the investment case MicroStrategy presents that MSTR stock provides investors with **high-beta exposure to bitcoin**, meaning it can rise faster when the bitcoin price appreciates, though fall faster when it depreciates.

Last week's at-the-market issuance of **4.8 million shares**, which came at an average price of around 184, increased MicroStrategy's shares outstanding by 1.44%. The MSTR stock issuance paid 91% of the price of 10,645 bitcoin, raising MicroStrategy's holdings by 1.59%, so bitcoin per share increased by 0.15%. The increase was due almost entirely to the fact that MicroStrategy paid the rest of the purchase price by issuing **$92 million in preferred stock**.

## MSTR Bitcoin Buying Power Fades

However, now that MSTR stock has fallen to **160.38** as of Wednesday's close, purchases made with its share price at current levels would require a heavier reliance on preferred stock. For example, even if MicroStrategy merely keeps bitcoin-per-share flat, buying another 10,000 bitcoin at the current price near $87,000 would require preferred issuance of more than **$150 million**, or 17% of the total price.

As of Thursday morning, MicroStrategy's enterprise value (which includes stock market valuation, preferred stock and convertible debt minus cash) exceeds the value of its bitcoin holdings by about **9%**. MicroStrategy would lose that premium if MSTR stock fell to around 143, assuming the bitcoin price remained flat. If that happens, buying 10,000 bitcoin without diluting bitcoin per share would require paying more than **25%** of the purchase price with the issuance of about $230 million in preferred stock.

Given that MicroStrategy preferred stock is carrying an average interest rate of **11% to 12%**, and the trend is toward even higher rates, MicroStrategy's interest bill per share could go up noticeably, even if bitcoin per share stays flat.

## MicroStrategy Builds Cash Reserve

As recently as Oct. 30, MicroStrategy said it would only issue more MSTR stock to buy bitcoin when it had a premium to its bitcoin holdings of at least **150%**. But everything changed as MSTR stock dived amid a bitcoin price pullback and investors' growing focus on MicroStrategy's preferred dividend obligations and convertible debt, which might require repayment as early as September 2027 if MSTR stock continues to falter.

Not only did MicroStrategy make an abrupt shift to buying bitcoin primarily by issuing common stock, it also set aside **$1.4 billion in cash** to reassure investors that dividend payments were covered for the next 21 months. The upshot is that MicroStrategy may take its foot off the gas as relates to bitcoin buying to avoid piling up its interest costs if MSTR stock remains in a slump. Essentially, a rising stock price fills up the gas tank, especially if MSTR stock is rising vs. the bitcoin price.

However, pressure could remain on MSTR stock as investors look ahead to **Jan. 15**, the day by which MSCI is due to announce whether MicroStrategy will remain in the MSCI World and USA indexes.

## Bitcoin Price

The bitcoin price fell as low as **$85,418** on Wednesday afternoon, climbing to **$87,160** overnight. The cryptocurrency found support around $85,000 in early December, and so far that support is holding.

The bitcoin price slid as one source of support looks shaky. Strategy bitcoin buys may slow as MSTR stock falls, or else its interest costs may jump. Here's why.

Is MicroStrategy Running Out of Gas? How MSTR's Bitcoin Buying Spree Could Hit a Wall

Bitcoin's most entrenched investors are still cashing out — and the pressure is starting to show.

More than two months after the token hit a record high above $126,000, Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% and is struggling to find support. One reason: its long-time holders haven’t stopped selling. New blockchain data shows that coins held for years are being divested at some of the fastest rates in recent memory, just as the market’s ability to absorb them is fading.

## The Exodus of Long-Term Holders

This trend highlights a significant shift in investor behavior. **Long-term holders**, often seen as the backbone of Bitcoin's stability, are now liquidating their positions at an accelerated pace. This exodus is contributing to the ongoing price decline and creating headwinds for recovery.

## Market Impact and Support Levels

With Bitcoin down nearly 30% from its peak, the market is grappling with weakened support. The selling pressure from these seasoned investors is exacerbating the downturn, making it harder for the cryptocurrency to find a solid footing. **Blockchain data** reveals that the rate of divestment is among the highest observed in recent years, signaling a potential change in market sentiment.

## What This Means for Investors

The persistent selling by long-term holders could indicate a lack of confidence in the near-term prospects of Bitcoin. As these coins flood the market, the reduced absorption capacity suggests that demand may not be keeping up with supply. This scenario poses challenges for both short-term traders and long-term believers in the cryptocurrency's future.

Bitcoin’s most entrenched investors are still cashing out — and the pressure is starting to show.

Bitcoin Poised for July Rebound, But Mt. Gox Payments Could Derail Hopes

Summary:

Bitcoin has historically performed strongly in July, with an average gain of 7.42% following downtrends in June.

This year, however, the impact of Mt. Gox repayments and potential sales from the German government might pose challenges.

Analysts anticipate a potential rebound in July, but acknowledge the potential downward pressure from the $8.5 billion in Bitcoin repayments to Mt. Gox creditors, starting this month.

While only $4 billion is expected to hit the spot Bitcoin market, analysts like Jonathan de Wet of ZeroCap warn that the price could dip to $57,000 as a result.

Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin has been trading strongly in the $60,000 range, with historical best monthly performance typically occurring in November, averaging a 46.81% gain since 2013.

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