Bitcoin's $110,000 Standoff: Will Options and ETF Outflows Spark a Major Move?

Quick Take

• Analysts say Bitcoin is in a proof-of-conviction phase, with rallies fragile and long-term holders taking profits below key resistance at $113,000.
• Macro risk looms as Friday’s CPI print becomes the only major U.S. data release amid the government shutdown, per QCP Capital experts.

Bitcoin's recent narrow price action is testing patience below the short-term cost basis, as options open interest remained near the highs and put demand rose, Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in a market note Thursday.

According to The Block’s price page, BTC changed hands at around $109,000 on Oct. 23, down over 3% in the last month. Misir put the intraday band at roughly $109,500 on the upside and $107,200 on the downside.

The options market has also moved to the forefront. Aggregated open interest for bitcoin options has climbed to new records, and dealers are increasingly facing concentrated put exposure. It’s a setup that often widens intraday ranges since short gamma positions force aggressive hedging on relatively modest delta moves. That dynamic, BRN warned, makes price action more susceptible to sudden squeezes and violent retracements around key strikes.

Repeated failures to reclaim the $113,000 level have left weaker hands as the marginal sellers. Losing the $108,000 band would risk larger drawdowns toward roughly $104,500 and possibly the $97,000 area.

Daily flows on Wall Street have reflected this mixed investor sentiment and market volatility. The Block’s data dashboard shows that spot bitcoin ETFs logged a $101 million outflow and Ethereum ETFs posted a $19 million outflow yesterday, signaling wavering institutional demand after recent liquidity events.

Macro and event risk are also in play. QCP Capital noted that the U.S. government shutdown has kept many economic data flows dark, focusing markets on Friday’s CPI release, which the BLS made an exception to publish. The print that could re-anchor the soft-landing narrative and tilt BTC’s skew if it surprises to the upside or downside. QCP said a soft CPI around 0.2% would support BTC’s upside momentum, while a hotter print could quicken further de-risking.

Analysts are not unanimous on the near term. Standard Chartered this week warned a dip below $100,000 "seems inevitable" by the weekend, though the bank suggested any such pullback could be short-lived.

That view mirrors the downside scenarios Misir flagged, where renewed ETF outflows or a fresh macro shock could amplify long-holder distribution and force a deeper consolidation.

"Bitcoin is in a proof-of-conviction phase." BRN’s expert said. "The market is rangebound and message-driven. ETFs and treasuries are buying paper, while long-term holders are taking profits. That tug keeps BTC stuck below the short-term holders’ cost basis and makes rallies fragile."