Bitcoin's Critical Crossroads: Shrimps Are Buying But Whales Hold The Key To The Next Rally

The Bitcoin Ownership Split That Could Shape The Market's Future

For much of this month, Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading around the mid-$60,000s. While this price action might seem humdrum on the surface, a developing split in coin ownership could determine what happens next in the cryptocurrency market.

Shrimps vs. Whales: A Growing Divergence

Data from Santiment reveals a fascinating trend: the number of wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC (typically associated with retail investors or "shrimps") has increased by 2.5% since Bitcoin hit its record high in October. This growth has pushed the shrimps' share of supply to its highest level since mid-2024.

Santiment data visualization showing Bitcoin wallet distribution

Meanwhile, larger holders known as whales and sharks (wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC) have moved in the opposite direction, reducing their holdings by approximately 0.8%.

Why This Split Matters

In practice, it's the larger holders who tend to set the tone for price direction. This kind of ownership split typically produces choppy, frustrating price action rather than clean trends.

Retail investors provide a floor and can spark short-term momentum, but rallies that stick require bigger players who are prepared to buy whatever's on offer. The divergence is especially notable because the picture looked different just a few weeks ago.

Conflicting Data Points

After Bitcoin cratered toward $60,000 on February 5 (a drawdown of more than 50% from its October peak), Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score climbed to 0.68. This was the strongest broad-based reading since late November, suggesting the market was shifting from capitulation into something more synchronized.

Glassnode's metric measures the relative strength of accumulation across different wallet sizes by factoring in both entity size and the amount of BTC accumulated over the past 15 days. A score closer to 1 signals accumulation, while a score closer to 0 indicates distribution.

During this period, the 10-to-100 BTC cohort was the most aggressive dip buyer. However, Santiment's wider lens complicates this reading. Its 10-to-10,000 BTC band captures a much broader slice of large holders than Glassnode's dip-buying cohort, and across that full range, net positioning since October is still negative.

Reconciling The Two Takes

One way to reconcile these conflicting data points: mid-sized wallets may have genuinely bought the panic while the largest holders kept distributing into every recovery, dragging the aggregate number down.

This matters because Bitcoin doesn't need retail to show up—retail is already here. What it needs is for the distribution from large wallets to stop, or better yet, reverse. Without that, every rally risks being sold into by the very cohort that needs to provide structural demand if it is to succeed.

The shrimps are doing their part. Now they're waiting for the whales to join in.