Bitcoin is currently facing a significant correction, with on-chain data revealing a third wave of whale profit-taking since mid-2024. This trend is compounded by miner sell-offs following July's all-time high. Options traders are bracing for a potential 10–30% downside into September, signaling cautious short-term sentiment.
The Whale Effect
Large holders, or 'whales,' alongside miners, have been cashing out, creating near-term pressure on Bitcoin's price. This behavior is indicative of a mature bull market, where profit-taking becomes more prevalent after significant highs.
Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish
Despite the current cooling phase, historical data suggests that Q4 seasonality could favor Bitcoin, with a median return of 52%. Charles Edwards of Capriole Fund argues that Bitcoin is currently undervalued, based on the Energy Value model, hinting at potential long-term gains.
Market Sentiment
The market is at a crossroads, with short-term bearishness clashing with long-term optimism. CryptoQuant anticipates a renewed accumulation phase, leading to a breakout to new all-time highs, aligning with historical performance trends.
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