Bitcoin's Silent Surge: Smart Money Bets Big on $130K by September

Singapore-based trading desk QCP Capital has spotted a telling trend in the options market: heavyweight investors are stealthily gearing up for Bitcoin to hit $130,000 by the end of Q3, even as its spot price hovers around $105,000.

$130,000 Bitcoin Bets Heating Up

In a recent client note, QCP Capital pointed out an unexpected rise in job openings, boosting risk appetite in equities and pushing the S&P 500 toward the 6,000 threshold. "A steady NFP would cement the Fed’s narrative of a resilient labor market, reinforcing expectations that rates will remain on hold," QCP noted. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's front-end volatility has dipped below 40 vol as traders await Friday's payroll data.

Beneath the calm surface, the options market tells a more dynamic tale. "September $130K calls were lifted at 47 vol," QCP observed, indicating growing interest in Bitcoin's upside potential as Q3 approaches. The one-month volatility term structure is flatter than it's been since May, making it cheap for funds to buy long-dated vega while selling short-dated gamma. This mirrors a broader drop in equity volatility, with VIX hitting three-month lows, leaving Bitcoin's implied curve looking "wholly normalised," according to QCP.

Potential Catalysts on the Horizon

The current calm might not last. QCP warns that tariff tensions and Washington's "Big Beautiful Bill" could disrupt macro data just as the US debt-ceiling debate resurfaces. "In the absence of a clear catalyst, BTC is unlikely to break materially out of its current range," the note said, but Q3 "could prove more challenging" as fiscal risks and trade tensions introduce potential headline volatility.

China is already showing early signs of stress, with futures volumes in 10- and 30-year Chinese government bonds at their lowest since February, attributed to "broader risk aversion and sidelined positioning." Markets are also watching for progress on an anticipated Xi-Trump dialogue, which could shift sentiment on tariffs.

Bitcoin's Current Stance

For now, Bitcoin remains steady, with spot prices clinging to $105,000 for five consecutive sessions. Open interest is light, and realized volatility has compressed into a mid-teens annualized band—conditions that historically precede a sharp expansion. The direction of this expansion hinges on upcoming catalysts: payrolls data, central-bank rhetoric, and tariff announcements.

The willingness of sophisticated desks to pay up for September upside is notable. Large prints in the $130,000 strike, executed at implied vols roughly seven points above the prevailing curve, suggest some investors expect Bitcoin to test new highs by September's end. QCP highlights the asymmetry: "With vols crushed and skew flat, the cost of owning topside gamma has rarely looked this attractive."

This strategy—cheap optionality against a potentially volatile macro backdrop—explains the growing gap between spot lethargy and options optimism. Whether the payroll report softens or tariff negotiations sour, Bitcoin's path could reignite volatility, precisely what long-vega buyers are betting on.

At press time, BTC traded at $104,648.