## The Bitcoin Ownership Split That Could Shape The Market's Future

For much of this month, **Bitcoin (BTC)** has been trading around the mid-$60,000s. While this price action might seem humdrum on the surface, a developing split in coin ownership could determine what happens next in the cryptocurrency market.

### Shrimps vs. Whales: A Growing Divergence

Data from **Santiment** reveals a fascinating trend: the number of wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC (typically associated with retail investors or "shrimps") has increased by **2.5%** since Bitcoin hit its record high in October. This growth has pushed the shrimps' share of supply to its highest level since mid-2024.

![Santiment data visualization showing Bitcoin wallet distribution](https://www.coindesk.com/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fs3y3vcno%2Fproduction%2F86b39ac4631aa26a4f42475ec3226f8292b0fde5-3066x1721.jpg%3Fauto%3Dformat&w=3840&q=75)

*Santiment data visualization showing Bitcoin wallet distribution*

Meanwhile, larger holders known as **whales and sharks** (wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC) have moved in the opposite direction, reducing their holdings by approximately **0.8%**.

### Why This Split Matters

In practice, it's the larger holders who tend to set the tone for price direction. This kind of ownership split typically produces **choppy, frustrating price action** rather than clean trends.

**Retail investors provide a floor** and can spark short-term momentum, but rallies that stick require bigger players who are prepared to buy whatever's on offer. The divergence is especially notable because the picture looked different just a few weeks ago.

### Conflicting Data Points

After Bitcoin cratered toward $60,000 on February 5 (a drawdown of more than 50% from its October peak), **Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score** climbed to 0.68. This was the strongest broad-based reading since late November, suggesting the market was shifting from capitulation into something more synchronized.

Glassnode's metric measures the relative strength of accumulation across different wallet sizes by factoring in both entity size and the amount of BTC accumulated over the past 15 days. A score closer to 1 signals accumulation, while a score closer to 0 indicates distribution.

During this period, the **10-to-100 BTC cohort** was the most aggressive dip buyer. However, Santiment's wider lens complicates this reading. Its 10-to-10,000 BTC band captures a much broader slice of large holders than Glassnode's dip-buying cohort, and across that full range, net positioning since October is still negative.

### Reconciling The Two Takes

One way to reconcile these conflicting data points: mid-sized wallets may have genuinely bought the panic while the largest holders kept distributing into every recovery, dragging the aggregate number down.

**This matters because Bitcoin doesn't need retail to show up—retail is already here.** What it needs is for the distribution from large wallets to stop, or better yet, reverse. Without that, every rally risks being sold into by the very cohort that needs to provide structural demand if it is to succeed.

The shrimps are doing their part. Now they're waiting for the whales to join in.

Small wallets have increased their BTC holdings by 2.5% since October's all-time high while large holders trimmed 0.8%, Santiment data shows.

Bitcoin's Critical Crossroads: Shrimps Are Buying But Whales Hold The Key To The Next Rally

## Blue Owl's Liquidity Crisis Echoes 2008: A Bullish Signal for Bitcoin?

Private-equity giant **Blue Owl Capital (OWL)** plunged nearly 15% this week after being forced to liquidate **$1.4 billion in assets** to meet investor redemptions in a private credit fund. This event has sent shockwaves through financial markets, with analysts drawing chilling parallels to the **Bear Stearns hedge fund collapses** that foreshadowed the **2008 global financial crisis (GFC)**. For Bitcoin investors, this could be a pivotal moment.

While major stock indices remained unscathed, Blue Owl shares fell sharply, down over 50% year-over-year. Other private-equity players like **Blackstone (BX), Apollo Global (APO), and Ares Management (ARES)** also saw significant declines, reviving painful memories of the 2008 meltdown.

### A 'Canary in the Coal Mine' Moment?

Former Pimco head **Mohamed El-Erian** questioned if this is a "canary-in-the-coalmine" moment akin to August 2007, when credit markets seized up and liquidity evaporated. He noted risks from an overheated **artificial intelligence (AI)** market but emphasized that current dangers don't match the 2008 scale. However, if Blue Owl is the "first domino," as suggested by former Peter Lynch associate **George Noble**, it could trigger a sequence similar to 2008, with **private credit replacing subprime mortgages** as the catalyst.

### Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain for Bitcoin?

Initially, tighter credit conditions might hurt risk assets, including **Bitcoin (BTC)**, which fell about 70% during the early Covid crisis. Yet, the **Federal Reserve's response** could be game-changing. In 2020, trillions in stimulus propelled BTC from under $4,000 to over $65,000. A repeat of the 2007-2008 playbook—stress, denial, contagion, then massive central bank intervention—could fuel another Bitcoin surge.

### Bitcoin's Genesis: Born from Crisis

Bitcoin was created during the 2008 crisis by **Satoshi Nakamoto**, disillusioned with government bailouts. The **Genesis Block** on Jan. 3, 2009, embedded the headline "Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks," highlighting Bitcoin's anti-establishment roots. From zero value, Bitcoin has grown to a **$1 trillion market cap**, embraced by major asset managers as a portfolio essential.

Today, Bitcoin has evolved into a **store of value** and "digital gold," integrated into the financial system via ETFs and institutional holdings. If Blue Owl's crisis signals a broader meltdown, Bitcoin might re-emerge as a **solution to a fragile banking system**, potentially driving a new bull run.

**Read more:** [Bitcoin's plunge signals coming AI crisis, but massive Fed response will drive new record high: Arthur Hayes](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/18/bitcoin-s-plunge-signals-coming-ai-crisis-but-massive-fed-response-will-drive-new-record-high-arthur-hayes)

Private-equity firm Blue Owl Capital (OWL) tumbled nearly 15% this week as it was forced to liquidate $1.4 billion in assets to pay investors looking to exit one of its private credit funds.

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