Bitcoin Demand Outpaces Supply by Over 6 Times in 2025, Analyst Predicts Major Breakout

Bitcoin is currently trading steadily around $108,716, but beneath the surface, a significant shift is occurring. Both retail and institutional investors are accumulating Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate, setting the stage for a potential major price surge.

Institutional Accumulation Hits Record Highs

André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, highlighted that corporate adoption of Bitcoin has accelerated dramatically. In just July and August 2025, 28 new bitcoin treasury companies were established, adding over 140,000 BTC to corporate holdings. This amount is nearly equivalent to the annual new supply of Bitcoin from mining (approximately 164,000 BTC), indicating that demand is absorbing supply faster than it's produced.

Corporate treasuries added 140,600 BTC in July–August, per Bitwise (Bitwise/X)

Challenging Post-Halving Cycle Narratives

Dragosch addressed concerns that Bitcoin might "top out" in 2025 based on historical post-halving patterns. He argued that such views overlook the massive scale of current institutional demand. Data shows that as of August 29, 2025, institutional demand has absorbed over 690,000 BTC, compared to a new supply of just over 109,000 BTC—a ratio of approximately 6.3 times. This imbalance suggests that halving-driven supply dynamics may be less relevant in today's era of widespread institutional adoption.

Institutional demand outpacing supply more than 6x in 2025, Bitwise data shows (Bitwise/X)

Retail Buying Strengthens the Trend

On August 27, Dragosch also pointed to robust retail activity, noting that accumulation across all Bitcoin wallet cohorts—from small holders to whales—reached its highest level since April 2025. Investors are described as "stacking relentlessly," with synchronized buying patterns often preceding major price increases.

Bitcoin wallet cohorts show strongest accumulation since April 2025 (Bitwise/X)

Current Market Conditions and Technical Analysis

Despite the strong accumulation, Bitcoin's price has remained relatively flat, with trading in a narrow range of $1,285 between August 30 and 31. Key resistance is near $109,500, while support has formed around $108,350–$108,400. A surge in volume to 8,272 BTC indicated significant institutional participation, but volatility remains elevated after a recent drop from $124,500 in August. Analysts caution that a test of the $100,000 psychological level is possible if resistance holds.

Implications for Investors

The data suggests that the traditional halving cycle may be overshadowed by unprecedented demand from both institutions and retail. This could lead to a major breakout if buying pressure continues, making the current environment highly bullish for long-term holders.