Record-Breaking Bitcoin Options Expiry
A staggering $31 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on Halloween, marking a new record high for monthly expiries. This surpasses last month's $18 billion, even after October's flash crash wiped out $19 billion in leveraged positions.
Key Market Dynamics
- Open interest on Deribit has surged to an all-time high of $50.27 billion, with significant concentrations in put contracts at a $100,000 strike price (betting on price drops) and call contracts at $120,000 (betting on rebounds).
- Deribit and CME hold $14 billion and $13.5 billion in expiring options, respectively, contributing to potential volatility.
- Bitcoin's price was around $109,866 recently, showing slight daily gains.
Risks of Leverage and Volatility
Analysts warn that high open interest expiries often suppress volatility before the cutoff, followed by sharp directional moves in the following 24-72 hours. The market still holds substantial leverage, risking cascading liquidations similar to the October 10 event, where forced selling amplified price declines.
Economic Factors Influencing Bitcoin
- Traders anticipate a 97% chance of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, influenced by softer inflation data.
- Bitcoin ETF flows have slowed, with net inflows dropping to $356 million this week after initial strong performance.
Institutional Insights
Bitfinex analysts note that large open interest wipes can lead to higher prices post-consolidation, suggesting the bull trend may not have peaked. Market sentiment is adjusting with traders rolling positions to November contracts amid evolving economic indicators.
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